Home prices still too high. (Oakland, Walnut Creek: foreclose, lease, health insurance)

[bayarea-girl]

Bayareahillbilly, I was not specifically referring to San Mateo. In the state of CA home prices are just too high. Foreclosures will continue all over the place in this state and elsewhere.

Foreigners buy where ever they want and for the most part are buying in large numbers outside of this state whether it be for investment and or to raise a family. It seems like a lot of them are migrating to the South at least that is from what I have read.

Anyways, I think you want to be more optimistic than realistic about what is happening with the housing in this state and in your area. Also, I looked up foreclosures in San Mateo and there are plenty of them check out the following links (I'm sure there are plenty others as well):

San Mateo County Foreclosures
San Mateo County Foreclosed Homes San Mateo Foreclosures for Sale CA
San Mateo County Foreclosures for Sale - San Mateo County Bank Foreclosures in California
San Mateo Foreclosures, San Mateo Foreclosure Listings - Yahoo! Real Estate

[clongirl]

Originally Posted by BayAreaHillbilly

Foreigners are not buying for investment but to live (or to put up their kids going to grad school / working as expats). It's a lot cheaper than the French Riveria even at these prices. Many are from Asia, but a surprisingly high number are from Europe. Most of these folks would have zero interest in anything in the East Bay other than a few places in the inner communities, but in general, their targets are the City, parts of the Peninsula, and less commonly, Marin.

I don't know where you are getting your info on the rich Europeans buying up property here... it's just not true.

I know that their recession is hitting them even harder than here. I know that Spain, Ireland, England, and parts of Eastern Europe had a property bubble to rival ours and nobody is purchasing property anymore.. Ireland is expecting an unemployment of nearly 20% next year. I lived there during the boom times and their property bubble was even worse. It's a worldwide recession/depression and it's not exclusive to us.

Last I visited Spain..the high rise "investment properties" were dotting the coast to where you couldn't see sea anymore. Guess what? All of these "investment properties" generally sold to Irish/British are now in foreclosure. In fact some buildings went up so fast to keep up with the demand that many were built without the proper planning permission and are now being torn down. It's far worse over there because their economies won't bounce back like the US.

I'm pretty sure it's not the Asians either. How would it be in their best interest to purchase some million dollar property in the City, to not be able to live in unless they are American citizens with high paying jobs. You just can't move over because you buy a house here. Nor would it even be in their best interest to try to rent something out as an investment..you just cannot make your mortgage/insurance costs back on the rental price. I just don't agree with you on this.

[Ultrarunner]

^^^

There are well to do people everywhere... even in poor countries or in bad economies.

Don't overlook the Dollar is worth much less than the Euro and other currencies... like the Canadian Dollar.

It wasn't that long ago when 80 cents would buy a Euro and now it takes something like $1.35

Property in many places in Europe is very expensive... and most realize they will never own a stand alone home.

I'm friends with a late 30 something Swiss Couple that recently got Green Cards... They are home shopping right now in Sonoma/Sebastopol and can't believe how cheap property is...

Back in 2001 there was nothing they liked in their price point and today, they are having trouble deciding because something new is coming on the market every day... their Swiss Money goes much farther and prices are down with inventory up...

I guess it's all a matter of prospective...

Oakland has 185 listings under 100k last I looked... when I sold a home on Havenscourt a couple of years ago... there were 3 homes under 250K

[bayarea-girl]

There are well to do people every where but they only make up 1-5 % of the population. In this country anyone outside of that circle is middle class (which is shrinking) or is poor (which is growing).

Clongirl, makes really good points that I forgot about. I knew people that were building and or buying in other countries and that has stopped too. Some of them foreclosed. The world is hurting right now.

I don't understand why people are even buying right now unless it is an amazing deal where the cost of the house is close to nothing. In this market there is no way I would buy because I am certain home prices will continue to go down.

[Ultrarunner]

People are buying right now because, for what ever reason, they perceive the value and opportunity is there.

Just about any property that will cash flow is moving quickly... it's always been this way... it's one avenue to wealth over the long term and I'm not referring to speculator hoping to make it on appreciation.

Others have wants or desires, as the families I've mentioned that have recently sold and bought 1 million plus homes in Orinda and Piedmont...

The family that bought in Piedmont said buying there has been a goal because of the excellent schools and very low crime rate... last year I don't think there was a SINGLE registered sex offender in the entire city

Many believed they had been priced out of the market... some sold and cashed out, with the plan to buy when prices fall... well, prices have fallen.

[jaynetarzana]

Originally Posted by bayarea-girl

I don't understand why people are even buying right now unless it is an amazing deal where the cost of the house is close to nothing. In this market there is no way I would buy because I am certain home prices will continue to go down.

I feel the exact same way. I am almost certain that the people who buy today will regret it when they realize they could've waited for the real price drops which in my opinion have yet to come. My friend who is a broker explained to me that the prime real estate is always the last to be hit, but it will be hit and when it happens, the downward pressure on the rest of the market will be very dramatic.

[Ultrarunner]

Originally Posted by jaynetarzana

I feel the exact same way. I am almost certain that the people who buy today will regret it when they realize they could've waited for the real price drops which in my opinion have yet to come. My friend who is a broker explained to me that the prime real estate is always the last to be hit, but it will be hit and when it happens, the downward pressure on the rest of the market in a very dramatic way.

People have to live somewhere and apartment or rental living is not for everyone...

There is a premium for home ownership... but that's the way life is.

I'm truly afraid of inflation in the future... I just see it as inevitable. Property has traditionally been an excellent hedge against inflation...

I don't have any answers and in the meantime... I'm not complaining. Demand has never been so high for my rentals and my last two new tenants are families that I have previously rented to, bought homes and lost them to the banks...

[jaynetarzana]

More prime, fixed-rate mortgages heading into foreclosure
http://www.mercurynews.com/news/ci_1...nclick_check=1

[BayAreaHillbilly]

Originally Posted by Ultrarunner

People have to live somewhere and apartment or rental living is not for everyone...

There is a premium for home ownership... but that's the way life is.

I'm truly afraid of inflation in the future... I just see it as inevitable. Property has traditionally been an excellent hedge against inflation...

I don't have any answers and in the meantime... I'm not complaining. Demand has never been so high for my rentals and my last two new tenants are families that I have previously rented to, bought homes and lost them to the banks...

Bingo ... inflation hedge, tax advantages, quality of life ... at some point, trying to perfectly time the bottom, for someone who does not need to stretch in order to buy, is a fool's errand. Better to just bite the bullet.

[BayAreaHillbilly]

Oh and one other thing. There are now essentially two distinct populations.

One of them is comprised of people for whom the idea of living in any one house longer than 5 - 10 years is an unknown concept. Of course, this population also happens to be the one harder hit by the bubble, due to their lack of equity in general.

The other population is people (like me!) who have hated moving ever since the first couple of apartment to apartment moves during college. This population wants a home for a 10 year plus horizon (typically much longer than that, at least 20 years in many cases). Of course this population has good equity and unless they just did the rare move within the past 5 years is not underwater nor will they ever be unless it's literally the end of the world and the entire economic system has collapsed, in which case, no one will care.