Finally Real Estate prices are going down (money, place)

[dburbs1975]

but nobody is allowed to sell stocks in China right now, the money is stuck there. Wishful thinking. That government is plugging the hole as we speak.

[teoreticar]

I think we are doomed for 3-5 years. Big drop in AAPL stocks will pull the plug for Real Estate prices in bay area. Other stocks will drop as well.

I think it will be major correction at least 30-40% but eventually we will go above water as always! ;-)

Just sit tights we are running into turbulence

ps: I wouldn't buy real estate right now. SELL SELL SELL

[beb0p]

Originally Posted by teoreticar

I think we are doomed for 3-5 years. Big drop in AAPL stocks will pull the plug for Real Estate prices in bay area. Other stocks will drop as well.

I think it will be major correction at least 30-40% but eventually we will go above water as always! ;-)

Just sit tights we are running into turbulence

ps: I wouldn't buy real estate right now. SELL SELL SELL

- Stock market and real estate market do not go in tandem. Recall the first tech bubble was followed almost immediately by a housing bubble. If anything, they tend to take turns forming bubbles... until there is a major crash that take down both. If the stock market crashes in the US, it will simply motivate more people to move the money to real estate.

- Unlike the stock market where it goes up and down in unison, the real estate market moves differently in different regions. When the housing crashed in Sacramento in 2006, prices were still raising in the Bay Area until 2008. Point is, some regions will crash one to two years before we do. Until you see a Sacramento or Stockton correction, there is not going to be a Bay Area correction.

- It'd be very unusual to have a housing correction of at least 30% when the economy is doing well. In fact, I have never seen it happened in CA, ever.
.

[beb0p]

Originally Posted by dburbs1975

but nobody is allowed to sell stocks in China right now, the money is stuck there. Wishful thinking. That government is plugging the hole as we speak.

Most Chinese don't own stocks in China. Their stock market simply doesn't have the same reach that we have here. So most Chinese would have no problem taking their money. Most of the investors are the rich, and even if their stock money is stuck in the market, these demographics would still have plenty of money laying around.

Btw, Chinese real estate raising for the third straight months. Coincident?
.

[DMenscha]

Originally Posted by teoreticar

I think we are doomed for 3-5 years. Big drop in AAPL stocks will pull the plug for Real Estate prices in bay area. Other stocks will drop as well.

I think it will be major correction at least 30-40% but eventually we will go above water as always! ;-)

Just sit tights we are running into turbulence

ps: I wouldn't buy real estate right now. SELL SELL SELL

Failed Econ 101 in college didn't you?

[DMenscha]

Originally Posted by teoreticar

Ok I have to admit I was wrong. Prices actually really going down right now.
I have a friend who want's to sell house in Sunnyvale, CA (Near Apple campus 2) and for 2 day open house he got only ONE visitor. Next week he got offer $200,000 below asking price.

He didn't accept it (tried to counter but buyer give up) and now he is regretting big time. He keep saying that he made mistake and he should have accept that offer and how he was naive because everyone was saying that market is hot right now.

His comps are actually little higher then his house. House is nice and and updated. Idk but looks like buyers are scared from interest rate hike big time or because stocks went down a little bit.

I think 3-4 weeks back market was super hot but now after that drop in China buyers are scared now big time.

And one anecdote makes the market.

[MediocreButArrogant]

Originally Posted by DMenscha

Failed Econ 101 in college didn't you?

Hey, I love investors like him. When people are scared it's time to get greedy. And this guy scares easily.

[SportyandMisty]

My favorite bumper sticker from 15 years ago after dot-com hell:

God, Grant Me One More Bubble Before I Die. I Promise I'll Know When To Sell.

[dburbs1975]

that's funny ^^

truth is, most people in a bubble cannot see out.

[phantompilot]

Originally Posted by beb0p

- Stock market and real estate market do not go in tandem. Recall the first tech bubble was followed almost immediately by a housing bubble. If anything, they tend to take turns forming bubbles... until there is a major crash that take down both. If the stock market crashes in the US, it will simply motivate more people to move the money to real estate.

- Unlike the stock market where it goes up and down in unison, the real estate market moves differently in different regions. When the housing crashed in Sacramento in 2006, prices were still raising in the Bay Area until 2008. Point is, some regions will crash one to two years before we do. Until you see a Sacramento or Stockton correction, there is not going to be a Bay Area correction.

- It'd be very unusual to have a housing correction of at least 30% when the economy is doing well. In fact, I have never seen it happened in CA, ever.
.

Yah, but you haven't been around when CA went bankrupt (and "full retard") before....so the game has changed. Did you think that just maybe the state has $500B laying around to pay all of their obligations?

What is going to unravel in the next few years is a complete restructuring of law and order in CA - because the inmates are running the asylum. So you'll see some things that most people never anticipated - the undoing of taxpayer protections, for example, which is really the proverbial finger in the d-ik-e (and no, I'm not talking about Janet Reno running the UC system into the ground , but that's going on as well). Incidentally can you believe CD tries to censor that word just because of the hononym? Unbelievable and despicable (surprised that's not censored too) leftist behavior, which ironically is actually quite germane and central to the social, political and economic disintegration of California.

The impact of this will be the demise of CA...because once that restraint is lifted, the left is going to raise taxes like you will not believe, and this will rapidly (think in "overnight" time frames) crash the real estate market in CA. People who are not paying their "fair share" are going to be paying more, which will delight the SJW types.... but the people who are paying way more than their fair share already are just not going to tolerate it. What will happen to these $2M small tract homes that permeate the Silicon Valley real estate market when the taxes go from $25K or 30K/year to $50K/year? They get a huge haircut on the value - which then gives a huge haircut on the taxes owed, which then requires a new round of tax increases - you can see how this is going to play out, I think.

The bottom line is housing will be nothing but a big liability because of the punitive levels of taxation levied on it. Its already that way for anyone who has bought in the last few years, but that's just going to get worse.

The other effect is that the rate at which employers leave the state is going to vastly accelerate. There will be a mass rush for the exits, and this will also crater the housing market. Right now people are complaining about housing shortages, but very soon they will be complaining about shortages of jobs that pay enough to pay the exorbitant taxes.

Don't say you weren't warned, because the writing has been on the wall for many years.