land purchase in napa? (Berkeley: sale, real estate, houses)

[ggcd951]

With all houses burned and neighborhood destroyed in napa, some news predicting the housing to go down as much as 40-60%, now I am wondering if it will be, at least temporarily, be an affordable time to buy some piece of land, perhaps worth buliding a house later or to be sold later. (No way can buy a house there) I feel bad about looking for investment opportnity for other's misfortune, but I can only pray that life will move on for those affected, and hard times will be temporary.

[dogandcat]

Sounds interesting.
I don't think prices will go down to such a high percentage because an impact of recent fires is huge but not extremely huge in terms of NorCal economy size (and I hope it will not grow... huge devastating tragedy for many affected people already). More likely 10-20% in general. Like definitely some people will sell their properties and land as quick as possibly for very cheap comparing to fair market price (40-60%) to be able to move to other parts of the country and you can find an opportunity there but I do not think it will be mass event. You can find real estate sale previous statistics for areas affected by fires, and how this temporarily impacted prices in those areas around the country, online. I did not find any scary deviations.

Not an expert but my 2 cents.

[rodentraiser]

If you buy land there, you may find covenants and restrictions still in effect. For instance, you might have to build a house within two years. That would certainly be something to look into. But you might want to consider land out where the wineries were. Some of that land won't be fit to grow vines on for years if not decades. A lot of people may just want to retire out of the wine making business. In that case, you might want to find out if the land can be divided into 5 acre parcels and buy that, then divide and sell all but one parcel for yourself.

I personally would hate to see that happen, but I'd rather the land stayed in say, 5 acre parcels rather than be divided into 20 homes an acre or something.

[beb0p]

I don't expect prices to go down much, if at all. In fact, I expect prices to tick up.

A large inventory of housing was wiped out. It's basic supply and demand - you remove supply, the price will go up if demand stays the same.

This is not some end of day disaster that decimates the whole region's economy and drives people away. People are going to stay put, those who got displaced will be looking for a new place. So the demand goes up,the supply goes down, and price will go up.

That's not to say there may be some panic selling or drop in price in the short run. The market is not always rational, but in the medium term, I don't see prices falling that much.

.

[2sleepy]

Originally Posted by ggcd951

With all houses burned and neighborhood destroyed in napa, some news predicting the housing to go down as much as 40-60%, now I am wondering if it will be, at least temporarily, be an affordable time to buy some piece of land, perhaps worth buliding a house later or to be sold later. (No way can buy a house there) I feel bad about looking for investment opportnity for other's misfortune, but I can only pray that life will move on for those affected, and hard times will be temporary.

Why do you think that housing would drop 40-60%? My guess is that 100% of the homes that were damaged or destroyed were insured. I sure didn't see housing prices drop after the fires in the Berkeley Hills in 1991

[typical_guinea_pig]

I don't think housing prices will fall like they would in many places, like New Orleans after Katrina. This is coveted CA real estate; people in CA understand the risks of earthquakes and wildfires and CA is still, especially this area, very sought after as a place to live. I don't see that changing. I suspect also if you want to purchase fire-sale property, you'll have to compete with investor/development companies that are already aligning with their strategy to buy up as much as possible as soon as possible.

[nightlysparrow]

And wait until you see the new codes for building for fire resistance. I'm sure they will be expensive additions to the cost. Not to mention, I imagine that construction companies, contractors and all the trades will charge top dollar for a few years, if you can even get them to work for you. That is what's happening now in Houston.

[ggcd951]

since schools, shops and groceries razed to the ground and devastated land, no one wants to leave there at least time being. It is not my original idea, saw from one of the news.

[silverkris]

Originally Posted by 2sleepy

Why do you think that housing would drop 40-60%? My guess is that 100% of the homes that were damaged or destroyed were insured. I sure didn't see housing prices drop after the fires in the Berkeley Hills in 1991

You've just dashed one of Perma Bear's hopes!

[City Guy997S]

Originally Posted by nightlysparrow

And wait until you see the new codes for building for fire resistance. I'm sure they will be expensive additions to the cost. Not to mention, I imagine that construction companies, contractors and all the trades will charge top dollar for a few years, if you can even get them to work for you. That is what's happening now in Houston.

Same thing for the middle FL keys also......