Considering moving to Santa Fe: Advice? (Albuquerque, Los Alamos: real estate, rent , work)

[Xavious Orgus]

Anybody care to guess, if the "soft" real estate market will change much in the next couple of quarters of 2008?

I am hoping to be in position for a home in the next few months (fingers crossed).

As they say...Buy on bad news, sell on good news.

[mortimer]

Xavious Orgus is curious:

> Anybody care to guess, if the "soft" real estate market will change ...

My guess is pretty much worthless, so I won't post it here.

Note: So is everyone else's.

> ... hoping to be in position for a home in the next few months ...

That's great. When you can afford a place you like and you are likely to stay there, that's always a good time.

> As they say...Buy on bad news, sell on good news.

If you are an investor, that's true.

If you are going to buy a house so you can make money on the appreciation, and it isn't your primary residence. Yup, that's kinda true.

[Lovehound]

Originally Posted by Devin Bent

I would not want to live near the Plaza -- you are not going to do your day-to-day living there and even some of the museums are on Museum Hill.

I'd be going downtown for the restaurants, for museums, perhaps for medical treatment, definitely if I need to do city business. Maybe rarely for the night life, entertainment, although I'm not a spring chicken any more.

I'd rather be looking at downtown from my back patio, 20 miles off in the distance. I wouldn't mind driving 20 minutes or so to get there. SF is still not that big that you can't get some place as long as there isn't traffic, as long as you don't want to get your place when there IS traffic.

Originally Posted by santafescribe

Strangely enough, several clients I've been working with want to be within "walking distance of Trader Joes" Seems much more sensible to me...

Makes a lot more sense to me.

Originally Posted by ziaAirmac

I've had my share of sore feelings about the growth, but I'm with Lovehound: It's a free market, baby. The secret that was Santa Fe was out a long time ago. I have to tell you, I knew many friends, from old families who sold their parents home when the time came for prices that would have the old man that baked the mud to make the adobe walls rolling over in his proverbial grave. I never heard any of them worrying about the long term effects of what these "outsiders" were willing to pay on their way to the bank.

I'm imagining how much I can get for my SF retirement property after I pass on to my final reward.

Originally Posted by Xavious Orgus

Anybody care to guess, if the "soft" real estate market will change much in the next couple of quarters of 2008?

I am hoping to be in position for a home in the next few months (fingers crossed).

As they say...Buy on bad news, sell on good news.

Yeah, I'm good at guessing. Just ask me!

It's not a soft market, it's a declining market. Prices will head south for the next (about) two years. A bunch of people drove up prices buying homes they couldn't afford using mad money and "hail Mary" mortgages (5 years, almost zero interest, interest only, must re-fi at end of 5 years, "Oh yes you'll have no problem refinancing or you can just sell it and make a big profit.")

The market will stabilize only when the all those people get foreclosed and lose their properties, and the excess houses flood the market, and only when that flood is taken up will the market stabilize and resume business as usual with people who can actually afford to live there buying the houses and living in them.

Speculation fueled the market. The market won't get well until it's flooded with common sense.

[santafescribe]

Originally Posted by Xavious Orgus

Anybody care to guess, if the "soft" real estate market will change much in the next couple of quarters of 2008?

I am hoping to be in position for a home in the next few months (fingers crossed).

As they say...Buy on bad news, sell on good news.

Well there's certainly enough bad news around for everyone....

Our opinion is that the market won't change through this year. There are upwards of 1400 homes on the market in Santa Fe at the moment, with a sell rate of about 200 per month. So it'll take a while to move those homes through the system, at which time the market will firm up considerably.

[Devin Bent]

Originally Posted by santafescribe

Well there's certainly enough bad news around for everyone....

Our opinion is that the market won't change through this year. There are upwards of 1400 homes on the market in Santa Fe at the moment, with a sell rate of about 200 per month. So it'll take a while to move those homes through the system, at which time the market will firm up considerably.

Yes. I suspect -- but SS would know better -- that Santa Fe is to some extent dependent upon people selling homes elsewhere before buying here. Several of the people on this forum bought here that way.

So -- it will be hard for the Santa Fe market to bounce back until other markets do first. Which again means that it will be a while.

But -- when Santa Fe does bounce back -- there will be a pent-up demand by people in other places who have put off buying. I suspect that prices will accelerate rapidly. You don't want to be last in that line.

All of the above is IMO. Read Mortimer's message above.

[santafescribe]

Originally Posted by Devin Bent

Yes. I suspect -- but SS would know better -- that Santa Fe is to some extent dependent upon people selling homes elsewhere before buying here. Several of the people on this forum bought here that way.

Devin, you're so gracious! Yes I forgot to mention that... Above a certain price point (probably around $500k it starts to change, although I have no proof) the market changes from predominantly locals to predominantly people moving here for the first time.
And that second market is depressed not because there's a lack of desire to move here (a glance at these boards will prove that) but because of slowness in other markets. I have clients from Scottsdale, Miami, LA, Cincinnati and San Diego all chomping at the bit to move here, but are constrained by their existing home situation. Previously - oh, 18 long months ago - they'd say what the heck, put their home on the market and move here. Now they are much more cautious, and that 'daisy chain' of transactions is what's slowing our market down.

[Xavious Orgus]

Thanks,

In your own opinion/s, when would you roll the dice and pull the trigger on a Santa Fe home? ($250,000. - $350,000 price range)

[santafescribe]

Originally Posted by Xavious Orgus

Thanks,

In your own opinion/s, when would you roll the dice and pull the trigger on a Santa Fe home?

I guess I shouldn't reply, because I'm biased. But I will

Rates are in a great place, which they may not be as the Dow Jones improves....the Fannie Mae limit is $427,000 in Santa Fe, and this bonus number will expire at the end of the year, bringing less expensive loans back into the 'jumbo' bracket...there's a fantastic selection of homes on the market now, with (in the main) eager sellers, not a small number of whom will want to take their homes off the market at the end of the summer to catch the fall/winter rental market.....and of course it's a nice time to come to Santa Fe, when the town is at its best and before the various markets (Spanish/July 26, Indian/August 23rd) bring an extra 100,000 people each into town.

So come, buy!

[Devin Bent]

Originally Posted by Xavious Orgus

Thanks,

In your own opinion/s, when would you roll the dice and pull the trigger on a Santa Fe home? ($250,000. - $350,000 price range)

The hardest question of all is when exactly. I have a friend I have been trying to help with this question and reading everything I can -- most of course is written about the national market.

If you read a lot - then the one thing you see is that nobody knows for sure. You don't want to buy too soon and pay too much -- but if you wait for the uptick, then a lot of sellers will suddenly be much less motivated.

IMO -- start looking. If you find the house you love, at a good price and a decent interest rate from the bank -- then buy.

Good luck.

[Towanda]

Originally Posted by santafescribe

There are upwards of 1400 homes on the market in Santa Fe at the moment, with a sell rate of about 200 per month. So it'll take a while to move those homes through the system, at which time the market will firm up considerably.

I did my part to move ONE home through the system!!!