Northern New Mexico High School Basketball Updates (Albuquerque, Roswell: 2010, calculating)

[rwalkernm]

Let's look a bit at Hobbs.

The strength ratings show Hobbs to be a favorite Saturday, with the mostly likely result a win by 8 points. The distributions give Espanola only an 11% chance of winning. The biggest issue is that Hobbs has only played 6 of their 17 games against NM teams. I have so little data about the out-of-state teams that their ratings are more uncertain.

The strongest team Hobbs has played was Artesia (away, Jan 6), and they lost by 3. Artesia is rated the same as Espanola, so that indicates a great game vs Espanola -- Hobbs effective playing strength that day was the same as the median strength for Espanola. The next-strongest team was Alamogordo, away, and Hobbs wins by 18 on Jan 3 -- their best result for the season so far.

7 of Hobbs' last 8 games are against NM teams (about which I have much more data, of course) -- I expect the strength estimate for Hobbs to improve in the next few weeks. They play Rio Rancho tonight, with an expected win by 6 points. If they play as "poorly" as they did against Artesia, Rio Rancho will beat Hobbs by 4-5 points. Another factor in Espanola's favor is that Hobbs is playing two strong teams two nights in a row -- they'll be tired (??) Saturday.

All these mitigating factors are things the power ratings has no way of evaluating consistently.

I'll post some more specific info about the upcoming Hobbs/Espanola game later... The game will definitely be very interesting.

BobW

[rwalkernm]

I re-ran ratings based on games reported through this morning. New games include Hobbs over Rio Rancho last night by 1 (should have won 6), and Hobbs over Roswell by 27 (should have won by 12). Last game before that was the already-reported loss to Artesia by 3 (should have won by 10).

The only new game for Espanola was the expected win over Capital on 1/21.

Stats still predict a win tonight for Hobbs, by 9 points. But Espanola has been playing more consistently than Hobbs has, and if the Hobbs team that shows up tonight is the same one that played last night, the game will be a tossup.

Here's a histogram plot of the predicted score difference for Espanola, based on the computer "playing" 100000 virtual games. The horizontal axis shows the points Espanola will win/lose by, the vertical axis is the number of virtual games with that result. Only 9% of the games are wins for Espanola. The plot makes the assumption that a one point strength difference means a one point score difference.



Ratings next week will include predictions for the remaining games on the schedule.

Good luck, still a tossup for me, with edge to Hobbs,
BobW

[rwalkernm]

Game Summary for last week:

Boys games with no "surprises" --
Espanola away win by 8 over Capital (1/21)
Espanola home loss by 9 to Hobbs (1/24)
St. Mike's home win by 37 over Raton (1/21)
Los Alamos home win by 31 over Taos (1/21)
Pojoaque home win by 7 over Robertson (1/21)
SF Indian home loss by 11 to Sandia Prep (1/20)
SF Indian away loss by 4 to W Las vegas (1/21)

Boys games with surprises --
St. Mike's weak home win by 13 over Robertson (1/23) -- expected a win by 26
Capital home loss by 5 to Bernalillo (1/24) -- should have won by 8
Santa Fe High away win by 7 over Sandia (1/22) -- expected a 10 point loss
Pojoaque/SF Indian game on 1/23 -- expected a tossup, instead Pojoaque wins by 18
Pojoaque home win by 4 over Silver (1/24) -- expected a loss by 5

Girls games with no surprises --
Pojoaque away win by 26 over Robertson (1/22)
Pojoaque home win by 12 over SF Indian (1/24)
SF Indian home win by 3 over W Las Vegas (1/21) (but game was closer than expected)
Espanola away win by 15 over Capital (1/20)
Espanola away loss by 21 to Moriarty (1/24)
Los Alamos away win by 17 over Taos (1/20)
Los Alamos away loss by 4 to Academy (1/23)
St. Mike's home win by 6 over Socorro (1/20)
St. Mike's away win by 34 over Raton (1/22)

Games that had surprises --
Espanola weak home win by only 9 over Taos (1/23) -- expected 21 point win

BobW

[rwalkernm]

Games to Watch Next Week (Jan 26 - Jan 31):

Boys:
(1) Bernalillo/Los Alamos on 1/27 -- district -- 5 points win for LA, but Bernalillo had a good win last week
(2) W Las Vegas/Pojoaque on 1/29 -- tossup game in battle for 2nd in district
(3) Espanola/Los Alamos on 1/30 -- district implications -- 10 point win for Espanola


Girls:
(1) St. Michael's/SF Indian on 1/28 -- battle for 2nd in 2-3A -- small 6-point edge for SF Indian
(2) W Las Vegas/St. Michael's on 1/30 -- another battle for 2nd in 2-3A -- tossup
(3) Los Alamos/Espanola on 1/31 -- first meeting this year -- district winner implications -- tossup

BobW

[bradly]

There is a reason Espanola lost by 9, and if you went to the game.. I'm sure you would have seen why, the Newspapers didnt even summerize the stupid game, Anyways Espanola set yet another record Most fans of 2008-2009 basketball season with 3,866 in the 4,100 capacity gym, this was the Hobbs vs Espanola game at Medina Gym in Espanola, Pojoaque set the second place record with 3,099 in Pojoaque.

Espanola boys will beat Los Alamos by 15 or even more that is FORSURE.
Espanola girls will possibly lose to los Alamos, but by a couple not several.

[rwalkernm]

I have put up new stats that include games reported through noon today --
NMAA Basketball -- 2008 New Mexico High School Varsity Rankings

Espanola BV is deservedly tied for #1 ranking in 4A (with Roswell) -- the loss to Hobbs has no effect on their rating (since it was "expected"). Artesia has had some losses the last few games, so they fell down a bit.

I am sorry I was not able to make the game in Espanola, I am sure it would have been exciting. It sounds like there were "issues" leading to reasons. I am afraid the stats are clueless about extenuating circumstances. What happened?

The average error in predicting a point spread is about 6 points either way -- so any result in which Espanola BV wins over Los Alamos by anything from 4 to 16 points would be considered "normal" -- about 70% of virtual games will fall into that spread.

The GV game the same night is a 50-50 win for either team, from 6 points win for Espanola to a 6-point win for Los Alamos. On the other hand, when they meet in Espanola on 2/17, the edge goes to Espanola, because of home court advantage. I have not seen any predictions for these games from other sites, have you?

I will definitely try to make one or more of their games later in the season.

BobW

[bradly]

Originally Posted by rwalkernm

I have put up new stats that include games reported through noon today --
NMAA Basketball -- 2008 New Mexico High School Varsity Rankings

Espanola BV is deservedly tied for #1 ranking in 4A (with Roswell) -- the loss to Hobbs has no effect on their rating (since it was "expected"). Artesia has had some losses the last few games, so they fell down a bit.

I am sorry I was not able to make the game in Espanola, I am sure it would have been exciting. It sounds like there were "issues" leading to reasons. I am afraid the stats are clueless about extenuating circumstances. What happened?

The average error in predicting a point spread is about 6 points either way -- so any result in which Espanola BV wins over Los Alamos by anything from 4 to 16 points would be considered "normal" -- about 70% of virtual games will fall into that spread.

The GV game the same night is a 50-50 win for either team, from 6 points win for Espanola to a 6-point win for Los Alamos. On the other hand, when they meet in Espanola on 2/17, the edge goes to Espanola, because of home court advantage. I have not seen any predictions for these games from other sites, have you?

I will definitely try to make one or more of their games later in the season.

BobW

Well Espanola and Atresia will stay tied at 1st Place in the NM Coaches Association Poll, both 3 loses to some strange teams.

The Espanola-Hobbs game was loud, very loud.. thats one thing I always loved about Espanola, the fans followed the basketball team everywhere and were a loud crowd, There was not a silent moment, I will admit that the refs were horrid for both JV and Varsity. Espanola was ahead at half time of varsity but the rebounds all went to Hobbs, and there were walking fouls all over Espanola.. The Lt. governor Diane Denish was there, along with two senators and the mayor.

If Espanola beats LA by more than 20 what is that considered?
and You should go to the boys game between the Valley and the Hill this Friday!

Although I must say the predictions you have seem great... are most of the time close or on the bat.

[rwalkernm]

Espanola's two in-state losses are to Hope and Hobbs, ranked (by me, anyway) as 4th and 2nd in NM over all classes combined. The score margins for those losses is pretty much consistent with the strength values. The out-of-state game loss was at a tournament in early Dec, and I don't bother to rate that team based on one game in NM. But, the MaxPreps site shows Pueblo South to be 4th-ranked in Colorado, and undefeated on the season, so hardly a shabby loss for Espanola. The MaxPreps ranking for Espanola is 9th in NM (mine is 13th -- it would take only another 4 strength points for Espanola to get to 9th for me).

The point of all this is that I do not think Espanola has anything to be defensive about with respect to their record. Looks like they will win the rest of their regular-season games, too.

I looked at the strength-difference distribution for Esp at home against LA. Shows less than 1% chance Los Alamos will win. Also shows less than 1% chance Espanola will win by 20 or more, so I'd call a 20-point victory quite surprising, statistically. There's an 80% chance they'll win by more than 5 and less than 15.

The GV game Friday is supposed to be much closer -- wouldn't that be the better game to watch??

BobW

[bradly]

Originally Posted by rwalkernm

Espanola's two in-state losses are to Hope and Hobbs, ranked (by me, anyway) as 4th and 2nd in NM over all classes combined. The score margins for those losses is pretty much consistent with the strength values. The out-of-state game loss was at a tournament in early Dec, and I don't bother to rate that team based on one game in NM. But, the MaxPreps site shows Pueblo South to be 4th-ranked in Colorado, and undefeated on the season, so hardly a shabby loss for Espanola. The MaxPreps ranking for Espanola is 9th in NM (mine is 13th -- it would take only another 4 strength points for Espanola to get to 9th for me).

The point of all this is that I do not think Espanola has anything to be defensive about with respect to their record. Looks like they will win the rest of their regular-season games, too.

I looked at the strength-difference distribution for Esp at home against LA. Shows less than 1% chance Los Alamos will win. Also shows less than 1% chance Espanola will win by 20 or more, so I'd call a 20-point victory quite surprising, statistically. There's an 80% chance they'll win by more than 5 and less than 15.

The GV game Friday is supposed to be much closer -- wouldn't that be the better game to watch??

BobW

Well the Espanola girls always get a bit off when they play LA, The game against Taos the other night was horrid.. Espanola wants to beat em' but they have alot to cover as well. As for me, I'm going to both games on Friday and Saturday.

I'm calling a win for Espanola boys by 14
I'm calling for a Espanola girls loss by 4 (I hope I'm proven wrong by Espanola)

The Question is who do you think will be seeded #1 for the State Basketball Tournaments in March?

[rwalkernm]

Your estimate for the BV win by 14 seems a bit optimistic, the GV game is about right.

I can't make Fridays game, already have an assignment that day. Might be able to make the game Saturday.

I have some questions for you about seeding (since you ask). I know the District Champs get to go, and the winner of the District tournament gets to go, and there are 6 districts in 4A. So that means there's anywhere from 6-12 teams with guaranteed invites, and somewhere from 4-10 at-large teams. Right?

I predict Espanola will get to go, since they'll either be District Champ or tournament champ or both. Next will come out of Bernalillo, Capital, Los Alamos, all of whom are arguably in the 4A top ten. How likely is it that 4 teams from one district will get to go (at least two of them getting at-large berths)?

So, once the teams that get to go are decided upon, what other constraints are there, if any, about awarding seeds? Do you know?

Another question. Should stronger teams be selected and seeded above weaker ones?

A question about ratings -- what do you like better -- (a) no computer ratings, (b) ratings based on strength (power) such as what I've been doing, or (c) ratings based on winning percentage (rpi, like college bball and football).

Another question about ratings (assuming computer-based ratings have anything to offer) -- should all games count the same? Or should recent games be weighted more than early-season games? Or should close games count more than blowouts?

Any thoughts?

Thanks,
BobW