Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Excellent balanced perspective bbronston; thank you for the input.
Actually I do not see anything on how the presidential election would have much affect the local economy here. It seems the two biggest economic drivers in SWFL are tourism and retirees. What republican policies would affect those two industries. Well, the republicans are anti-unions. The nothern states are more unionized therefore the breaking of unions and their associated pensions would mean many future retirees would have less money to bring and spend in Florida. Of course, individual state government unions are the province of the state so a federal election would hold no bearing. On the other hand stopping illegal immigration would have a direct impact on the FL aggriculture business but not neccessarily in a positive way.
Disclaimer: This is not a political commentary. It is my assessment of the future of our local real estate market movement based on potential political outcomes.
QC, I think if Obama is re-elected, we will see a slight drop in market value/activity around here. There's no real reason to expect a market boom but I also don't think there's a reason to expect a major slow down, either. On the positive side of the ledger, I think we still have market forces at work here (i.e. it still gets cold in the north and people want to live where it's warm, inventory is low, builders are building, money is cheap) to push prices gradually upwards but, on the negative side of the ledger, I expect that the economy will actually stagnate despite the minor gains we are seeing now. If business leaders around the country are to be believed, his policies (which presumably he will pursue unabated since he won't have to worry about another election) tend to inhibit business growth. If those leaders didn't like the first term, they'll probably really dislike the second. So, I expect to see a slight negative imbalance between the positive aspects of market forces and the stronger likelihood that the economy will stay weak or get weaker.
If Obama loses, and I don't think it will matter who the Republican nominee will be, I expect both the house and the senate will also go Republican and that will, I expect, lead to a reversal of most or all of the "anti-business" activities of the Obama administration plwus enactment of many pro-business policies which will, eventually, lead to faster economic zgrowth and certainty. I think lending will get easier and people will release the pent up demand leading to a robust real estate market. That, combined with more people being able to retire and all the other market forces I already mentioned, will probably create a very hot market (not a bubble) where DOM will be very short and multiple offers will be common. Or...I could be wrong!
BTW, the latest stats on our market for December and 2011 can be found phere.
I.believe.you are
right on the.mark. we can only hope for the change. Oh i am sorry that was his motto.
Actually I do not see anything on how the presidential election would have much affect the local economy here. It seems the two biggest economic drivers in SWFL are tourism and retirees. What republican policies would affect those two industries. Well, the republicans are anti-unions. The nothern states are more unionized therefore the breaking of unions and their associated pensions would mean many future retirees would have less money to bring and spend in Florida. Of course, individual state government unions are the province of the state so a federal election would hold no bearing. On the other hand stopping illegal immigration would have a direct impact on the FL aggriculture business but not neccessarily in a positive way.
It's all about the economy vacoder. The housing market benefits from good news leading up to and after a positive change in a presidential election. It always happens ..... everyone is waiting for positive results.
The housing market drives just about every industry in the marketplace. Thousands of products, goods and services, depend on the housing market. FL, and other tourist destinations, will benefit exponentially from a boost in economic mood, and increased employment oppportunities.
People will have a better outlook, and will gain much needed confidence to invest in the American dream of home ownership.
It's all about the economy vacoder. The housing market benefits from good news leading up to and after a positive change in a presidential election. It always happens ..... everyone is waiting for positive results.
The housing market drives just about every industry in the marketplace. Thousands of products, goods and services, depend on the housing market. FL, and other tourist destinations, will benefit exponentially from a boost in economic mood, and increased employment oppportunities.
People will have a better outlook, and will gain much needed confidence to invest in the American dream of home ownership.
The economy is not just about housing. There are many industries involved in the national economy. You are typing on a computer device. Are you saying people who rent don't buy computers? Also, are you saying that there is a lack of housing in the country? Maybe in North Dakota but not in Florida.
The original question was how the next election would affect the local ecompmy and subsequently the housing market. To me, to simply say that a new president will make people feel better and then things will immediately get better is not very analytic or realistic. I mean the downturn occurred in 2007 before this pres was in office. Up north there was a downturn in the early 2000 due to the "Dot.Com" bubble burst. It had nothing to do with who was president.
The economy is not just about housing. There are many industries involved in the national economy. You are typing on a computer device. Are you saying people who rent don't buy computers? Also, are you saying that there is a lack of housing in the country? Maybe in North Dakota but not in Florida.
The original question was how the next election would affect the local ecompmy and subsequently the housing market. To me, to simply say that a new president will make people feel better and then things will immediately get better is not very analytic or realistic. I mean the downturn occurred in 2007 before this pres was in office. Up north there was a downturn in the early 2000 due to the "Dot.Com" bubble burst. It had nothing to do with who was president.
there is no lack of houses in florida. what is lacking is buyers with the cash to purchase and lenders that will loan. this is all linked to the policies and agendas of the current administration. you can choose to believe or not believe this to be a fact but if a republican gets in, just watch the turn around. better yet if republicans take control of the senate, really watch the overnight growth.
retirees are not coming here in the numbers expected because they lost so much of their 401k's that they needed to continue working. then they lost in some cases 50% of their homes value that they viewed as their nest egg for retirement. the majority of the retirees coming to florida are from the northeast where home prices continue to slide down. jobs continue to dissapear there and taxes continue to rise. they have huge problems of unfunded pensions for public union members. many are kicking themselves for not bailing out before the housing crisis.
Good article, SoFlGal. It reads to me as if the local area will maintain the current price level through this year even with an increase in foreclosures. Lots of pent up demand there for a 'cheap' house for the Winter. Those boomers will just keep on coming not to mention the investors who are looking for profits somewhere outside the stock market.
there is no lack of houses in florida. what is lacking is buyers with the cash to purchase and lenders that will loan. this is all linked to the policies and agendas of the current administration. you can choose to believe or not believe this to be a fact but if a republican gets in, just watch the turn around. better yet if republicans take control of the senate, really watch the overnight growth.
retirees are not coming here in the numbers expected because they lost so much of their 401k's that they needed to continue working. then they lost in some cases 50% of their homes value that they viewed as their nest egg for retirement. the majority of the retirees coming to florida are from the northeast where home prices continue to slide down. jobs continue to dissapear there and taxes continue to rise. they have huge problems of unfunded pensions for public union members. many are kicking themselves for not bailing out before the housing crisis.
Agree with you GOOJ...... there are also a lot of people who are holding on to their cash, and are waiting to see an upward curve worthy of investing once again in a home. Others are attempting to "time the market" by waiting for what they perceive to be a "bottom". Everyone talks about a market bottom, no one can predict a bottom or a top. No one is clairvoyant or they would all simply play Powerball.
The country needs a positive economic climate, and the longer this administration continues with its European Socialistic ideas, the USA will suffer greatly under their destructive policies.
FL is not alone in the deepest housing industry collapse ever. There are areas of the country right now (mid-Atlantic states, and parts of Ohio and Michigan etc.,) although not publicized, where housing prices are dropping in what some consider the tail end of the backlash.
Just my humble opinion, but the banks need to get on with the program too. I talk to a lot of Realtors and many are having fits with shorts and foreclosures, banks not cooperating, qualified approved buyers backing out of contracts that take an inordinate amount of time to close, IF they close.
What is the current "dictator in chief" doing about the housing problem? Anything? that is the question, not only for SW FL, but the nation.
OK, I'm off my soapbox now. Carry on.
Last edited by QuilterChick; 01-12-2012 at 07:39 AM..
Agree with you GOOJ...... there are also a lot of people who are holding on to their cash, and are waiting to see an upward curve worthy of investing once again in a home. Others are attempting to "time the market" by waiting for what they perceive to be a "bottom". Everyone talks about a market bottom, no one can predict a bottom or a top. No one is clairvoyant or they would all simply play Powerball.
The country needs a positive economic climate, and the longer this administration continues with its European Socialistic ideas, the USA will suffer greatly under their destructive policies.
FL is not alone in the deepest housing industry collapse ever. There are areas of the country right now (mid-Atlantic states, and parts of Ohio and Michigan etc.,) although not publicized, where housing prices are dropping in what some consider the tail end of the backlash.
Just my humble opinion, but the banks need to get on with the program too. I talk to a lot of Realtors and many are having fits with shorts and foreclosures, banks not cooperating, qualified approved buyers backing out of contracts that take an inordinate amount of time to close, IF they close.
What is the current "dictator in chief" doing about the housing problem? Anything? that is the question, not only for SW FL, but the nation.
OK, I'm off my soapbox now. Carry on.
he is to busy campaigning, vacationing and golfing. his latest quote is "it could all be alot worse" now there is an, i feel your pain moment.
Lest we forget which adminstration is responsible for what happened to our country. The current President has only been in office 3 years.
We lost 55% of our IRA in 2008, our house value declined by $50,000 in 2008 (8 months). The market crashed in 2008. The previous President (Bush) bailed out the banks and Wall-Street still got their pockets lined with big bonuses, while the regular guy watched his life savings go down the tubes.
The current President saved this Country from a great depression. It takes more than 3 years to turn around years of abuse. Remember, the rich are richer. They continue getting richer while the working man pays the price. We should cut services to the workers and elderly in this Country while continuing to give tax breaks to the millionaires, banks and coorporations? Doesn't anyone see this?
The Country is slowing healing. Things are getting better. You can't reverse the damage that was done, overnight. I don't understand why anyone wants to go back to what got us here.
U.S. home prices fall sharply - The Globe and Mail (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/us-home-prices-fall-sharply/article2284242/ - broken link)
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
