The days of real estate bargains in SWFL may be coming to an end (Miami: days on market, condos)
Sarasota - Bradenton - Venice areaManatee and Sarasota Counties
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Lest we forget which adminstration is responsible for what happened to our country. The current President has only been in office 3 years.
We lost 55% of our IRA in 2008, our house value declined by $50,000 in 2008 (8 months). The market crashed in 2008. The previous President (Bush) bailed out the banks and Wall-Street still got their pockets lined with big bonuses, while the regular guy watched his life savings go down the tubes.
The current President saved this Country from a great depression. It takes more than 3 years to turn around years of abuse. Remember, the rich are richer. They continue getting richer while the working man pays the price. We should cut services to the workers and elderly in this Country while continuing to give tax breaks to the millionaires, banks and coorporations? Doesn't anyone see this?
The Country is slowing healing. Things are getting better. You can't reverse the damage that was done, overnight. I don't understand why anyone wants to go back to what got us here.
JMO
i hate to tell you but this was set up to happen long before bush became president. this goes back to the clinton era. (you know the guy with the entertainment under the desk. the one that embarrased the country and got a free pass from the press)
there were a bunch of feel good democrats that thought everyone deserved and was entitled to a house, working or not and even if they couldnt afford it. so they pressured banks, fannie and freddie to change the rules. the lenders got greedy, the borrowers were stupid and then it all fell apart. probably the one politician we can thank for that is barney frank.
so to help things along the current president is raising the debt cieling again. we are at 104% of gdp. greece is 140% of gpd.
you may want to believe this guy is good for the country but look at how it has gotten worse. the only reason foreclosures have slowed is the banks got caught with the robo signing. i just read that the average time for a foreclosure in florida to take place is a little over 1000 days.
in the past 3 years the middle class has been hurt more than ever thru white house policies and the we have to hate the rich people mantra. you know the evil rich people, the ones that own the companies that create jobs.
the current president had the congress and senate for his first 2 years and couldnt get all his agenda thru. even his own party saw it for what it is.
i hate to tell you but this was set up to happen long before bush became president. this goes back to the clinton era. (you know the guy with the entertainment under the desk. the one that embarrased the country and got a free pass from the press)
there were a bunch of feel good democrats that thought everyone deserved and was entitled to a house, working or not and even if they couldnt afford it. so they pressured banks, fannie and freddie to change the rules. the lenders got greedy, the borrowers were stupid and then it all fell apart. probably the one politician we can thank for that is barney frank.
so to help things along the current president is raising the debt cieling again. we are at 104% of gdp. greece is 140% of gpd.
you may want to believe this guy is good for the country but look at how it has gotten worse. the only reason foreclosures have slowed is the banks got caught with the robo signing. i just read that the average time for a foreclosure in florida to take place is a little over 1000 days.
in the past 3 years the middle class has been hurt more than ever thru white house policies and the we have to hate the rich people mantra. you know the evil rich people, the ones that own the companies that create jobs.
the current president had the congress and senate for his first 2 years and couldnt get all his agenda thru. even his own party saw it for what it is.
Amazing how you skipped over 8 years of GWB between Clinton and Obama. You especially missed Greenspans role in this. Here is a 2004 Article on Greenspan and ARMS.
If you look a the S&P's Case-Shiller index, prices in Tampa have fallen in 2011.
That is as an independent, without fluff, tell it like it is index.
Sorry to deflate anyone's balloon, but housing prices are a long way from "recovery".
Well, keep in mind that all real estate markets are local and there really is no such thing as a national real estate market other than a compilation of local statistics. The question QC posted about predictions was posted in the Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice forum so I gave my prediction on our local market. Our market rarely follows the national trend and sometimes even differs from the state trend. Also, the question asked is about looking forward, not looking back. Even though prices have dropped in Tampa through 2011, our local market saw an increase of 8.2% in sales for 2011, prices have stabilized, and the difference in price between normal sales and distressed sales seems to be narrowing a bit. When looking forward you have to look at price trends, yes, but you also look at factors like reduced inventory, thru the door traffic (in my office), anecdotal evidence (like hearing similar stories from multiple customers over and over about how they've been waiting until now to purchase in Florida) and interest rates, to name a few. If unemployment goes down, that will be yet another reason to anticipate an uptick in market activity.
The other thing is that you are saying that we are far from a recovery because prices fell in 2011. Well, that's what happens with market curves. Prices fall until they start going back up and prices go up until they start going down! The fact that prices have fallen is not proof that they will continue to fall, it's proof that they fell in the past. Don't get me wrong, I admit your guess is as good as mine but I think there's more to it than where we've been.
Amazing how you skipped over 8 years of GWB between Clinton and Obama. You especially missed Greenspans role in this. Here is a 2004 Article on Greenspan and ARMS.
You probably also forget Bush campaigning for relection and crowing had the biggest increase of home-ownership occured in his first term.
Let's not vary from the topic's subject. Which is real estate "bargains" in SWFL possibly coming to an end. No one can predict a market top or a market bottom, and no one can "time the market". Studying the trends in a local market you are interested in is the best way to research if you are considering buying locally. Curiously, when interest rates begin to show an increase, it tends to spur some buying especially if news of mortgage rates on the increase is in the air. Currently though, even though interest on savings is flat lined for the most part, people are still hanging on to their cash worrying about the employment picture.
I'll go on record, place your bets right here, that a Republican administration will have many breathing a sigh of relief, and we will have a pent up demand in SWFL, and other areas of FL that will bring serious buyers back. Time is overdue to get some languishing abandoned subdivision construction started as existing inventory is completed. The banks have to loosen up and the media needs to stop scaring the wits out of folks.
Location: In a little house on the prairie - literally
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bbronston
Well, keep in mind that all real estate markets are local and there really is no such thing as a national real estate market other than a compilation of local statistics. The question QC posted about predictions was posted in the Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice forum so I gave my prediction on our local market. Our market rarely follows the national trend and sometimes even differs from the state trend. Also, the question asked is about looking forward, not looking back. Even though prices have dropped in Tampa through 2011, our local market saw an increase of 8.2% in sales for 2011, prices have stabilized, and the difference in price between normal sales and distressed sales seems to be narrowing a bit. When looking forward you have to look at price trends, yes, but you also look at factors like reduced inventory, thru the door traffic (in my office), anecdotal evidence (like hearing similar stories from multiple customers over and over about how they've been waiting until now to purchase in Florida) and interest rates, to name a few. If unemployment goes down, that will be yet another reason to anticipate an uptick in market activity.
The other thing is that you are saying that we are far from a recovery because prices fell in 2011. Well, that's what happens with market curves. Prices fall until they start going back up and prices go up until they start going down! The fact that prices have fallen is not proof that they will continue to fall, it's proof that they fell in the past. Don't get me wrong, I admit your guess is as good as mine but I think there's more to it than where we've been.
The topic is SWFL, which the Tampa region is in; Case-Shiller doesn't delineate (at least not to the extent I have access to) smaller centers like Bradenton-Venice-Sarasota.
My guess is that prices won't fall much more, but there are a number of factors that need to be in place for them to rise also, and those factors are not there. Credit worthiness for sure, shadow inventory and employment are huge factors, and of course, how to people feel about the future.
Some stabilization is likely, with hiccups. Five years from now? Who knows, but a slight increase is likely. A boom it will not be.
Let's not vary from the topic's subject. Which is real estate "bargains" in SWFL possibly coming to an end. No one can predict a market top or a market bottom, and no one can "time the market". Studying the trends in a local market you are interested in is the best way to research if you are considering buying locally. Curiously, when interest rates begin to show an increase, it tends to spur some buying especially if news of mortgage rates on the increase is in the air. Currently though, even though interest on savings is flat lined for the most part, people are still hanging on to their cash worrying about the employment picture.
I'll go on record, place your bets right here, that a Republican administration will have many breathing a sigh of relief, and we will have a pent up demand in SWFL, and other areas of FL that will bring serious buyers back. Time is overdue to get some languishing abandoned subdivision construction started as existing inventory is completed. The banks have to loosen up and the media needs to stop scaring the wits out of folks.
What? The subject of this post was about an uptick in the local real state market in the first quarter of 2012 based on a survey of local employers. It was YOU who posted asking about the implications of an election nine months from now. When you got a pro-prebulican response you cheered. When another poster lay the bubble burst at the feet of the dems you again cheered.
What? The subject of this post was about an uptick in the local real state market in the first quarter of 2012 based on a survey of local employers. It was YOU who posted asking about the implications of an election nine months from now. When you got a pro-prebulican response you cheered. When another poster lay the bubble burst at the feet of the dems you again cheered.
this clearly isnt the political forum. questions were asked about real estate. while true real estate is local it is also influenced by national events. i and others gave opinions of both local and national influences that we saw important. sorry if it did not fall into your perception.
Amazing how you skipped over 8 years of GWB between Clinton and Obama. You especially missed Greenspans role in this. Here is a 2004 Article on Greenspan and ARMS.
You probably also forget Bush campaigning for relection and crowing had the biggest increase of home-ownership occured in his first term.
Every President and Congress from Carter through Obama has responsibility and fault. Carter's equal housing through Clinton's deregulation through Bush and Greenspan's tolerance and inability to recognize and Obama's ridiculous buyouts and bailouts. They all failed us!
The topic is SWFL, which the Tampa region is in; Case-Shiller doesn't delineate (at least not to the extent I have access to) smaller centers like Bradenton-Venice-Sarasota.
My guess is that prices won't fall much more, but there are a number of factors that need to be in place for them to rise also, and those factors are not there. Credit worthiness for sure, shadow inventory and employment are huge factors, and of course, how to people feel about the future.
Some stabilization is likely, with hiccups. Five years from now? Who knows, but a slight increase is likely. A boom it will not be.
I suppose it depends on your definition of "recovery" but mine is a balanced market (neither a seller or buyer market) which I have seen described as roughly six months of inventory. You said we are far from recovery but in the most recent statistics from the Sarasota Association of Realtors (which largely covers the Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice area of this forum), single family homes represent 6.3 months of inventory. That's a pretty balanced market and it has been at roughly that number for much of the past year. Sometimes a bit above 7, sometimes under 6, but hovering around that balance so, in our area, it is a mistake to assume that it is still a buyer's market and that is exactly what buyers are finding here. I can't speak to Tampa but in the area covered by this forum, we have been recovering for a while. That's no guarantee of what is to come but I just want to keep the dialogue accurate and 'balanced'.
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