How a Category 3 Hurricane (Katrina-like) storm surge would temporarily reshape SW Florida (Sarasota, Bradenton, Venice) (rain, modern)

[hiknapster]

Originally Posted by hopsing

If every one worried about some cataclysm that could strike their area, they would live in places like NORAD. What if my aunt had balls? she would be my uncle. I am coming to Fla for the beach, sun and palm trees. Lots of things to do and I am betting on this horse to make an economic turn around.

NORAD? North American Aerospace Defense Command?

Make sure you have a job lined up. Home prices may be going up but unemployment is still very high. Buying in the area makes sense for retirees, second-homeowners and people being transferred. Don't sell your home until you have a job and in writing.

[Ragnar]

Originally Posted by JollyOgre

Are we going to do this again?

In before the lock and delete.

Well, I for one have never really looked closely at a hurricane surge flood map of SW FL before and it's interesting to me because the Sarasota area is one of the places we would consider relocating to.

One person's crusty bread is another's delicious toast.

[JollyOgre]

While it is intresting to examine these types of speculation, the chances of this happening are slim to nill.

If you look at the topography of the Gulf you will see that it is very shallow for many miles offshore. There is not enough depth for a storm surge to hit like it did in New Orleans. I would expect a worse case scenario for a +3m surge, and that would have to be on a high tide.

[WantPalmerRanch]

Originally Posted by JollyOgre

While it is intresting to examine these types of speculation, the chances of this happening are slim to nill.
If you look at the topography of the Gulf you will see that it is very shallow for many miles offshore. There is not enough depth for a storm surge to hit like it did in New Orleans. I would expect a worse case scenario for a +3m surge, and that would have to be on a high tide.

Can you provide credibility to your argument that there is not enough depth for a 20+ ft storm surge?

Naples had a 13' storm surge from Charley. And we are between Naples and New Orleans (30 ft. surge Katrina). I feel its possible Sarasota can receive a surge somewhere between 13'-30'.

Please provide a map of the Gulf depths, thanks.

[bbronston]

The 500 year flood surge for Sarasota or Manatee County is 16 feet (slightly under 5m) and the highest along the coast appears to be about 18 feet (about 5.5m). The 100 year storm surge is approx.13-15 feet (4-4.5m). The problem, of course, is we never know when that one out of 500 years will come along.

http://www.dot.state.fl.us/research-...354_70_rpt.pdf (page 96, Appendix A)

[JollyOgre]

Thanks Bob, I knew someone had done a report.

You win the thread.

Back to your regularly scheduled doomsday scenarios.

[bbronston]

Well, I Googled and clicked until I found something that gave surge heights instead of evacuation maps. To be fair, I certainly didn't read the report so I may be concluding something that isn't accurate but I'll leave that up to whomever feels energized enough to counter the info.

Soooo....what do I win? I know....a used lifejacket, right?

[WantPalmerRanch]

Originally Posted by bbronston

The 500 year flood surge for Sarasota or Manatee County is 16 feet (slightly under 5m) and the highest along the coast appears to be about 18 feet (about 5.5m). The 100 year storm surge is approx.13-15 feet (4-4.5m). The problem, of course, is we never know when that one out of 500 years will come along.

http://www.dot.state.fl.us/research-...354_70_rpt.pdf (page 96, Appendix A)

Good Job!! Only the 500 yr. title is too extreme. In 2011 areas of NJ were hit twice by 500 year floods. So if Sarasota wasn't hit by the 5m surge in the past 125 yrs. (reliable records) we can expect it very shortly. It doesn't mean we have to wait another 375 yrs. Prediction - 3m by the end of 2014.

And you're wrong! This is what you won.

http://img.diytrade.com/cdimg/109161...lking_Ball.jpg

Enjoy!! I can see you using it to run between two waterfront clients with your briefcase. Just make sure they are not more than a couple of minutes apart you may start turning blue.

[bbronston]

Hmmm...I already have a few so I guess I'll have to sell it on Ebay.

[WantPalmerRanch]

Yeah! Too much oxygen deprivation will make you want to get rid of them. I can tell you had no excitement and were sick of them. Lets hope there was no lasting brain damage.