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Old 03-26-2012, 08:50 PM
 
159 posts, read 293,598 times
Reputation: 55

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunshine Rules View Post
I understand where you're going with attempting to get an overall, big picture of the real estate market and economy.

I took a course in college on statistics and statistical data. The main thing I took away from that class was that it is almost impossible to get true, pure data that is not biased in some way by the process or those doing the statistical analysis.

Since we agents do have access to the actual real estate sales numbers for the area market, it is easier to obtain a factual picture of the local market as the numbers are readily available, not filtered by an outside source.

In the local Sarasota market, February pending sales were up 15.8% vs January 2012 and almost 25% higher than February of 2011. Inventories of homes in our market are down. As of the end of February our local market overall was at a 6.9 month supply of homes but when you factor in pending sales, it drops to a 4.1 month supply. I check the daily MLS hot sheet and most days the number of sale pendings is exceeding the number of new listings.

As to trends, I am noticing a new trend regarding short sales in Sarasota. The banks are starting to counter back at prices that are much closer to the upper end of the price range for the homes vs the lower end of the range where short sale prices have typically trended. In other words, the banks want a sales price that is much closer to a "normal" sale. I've talked with several agents about this who say they are also seeing banks coming back at higher prices for short sale properties, both homes and condos/villas. I don't yet know if the same is true in other nearby towns such as Venice, Bradenton or Parrish.

You mentioned the FL economy in 2008. Back during the "boom" real estate years of 2002 - 2005, people flocked to FL to get in on the profit taking. People working in construction and related services, banking, surveying, home inspections, retail sales, real estate sales, etc. When the market started going bust in 2006 - 2007, the jobs started drying up, disappearing. Construction came to a standstill. That started a migration trend out of FL. I don't know the statistical breakdown of who was leaving FL, but it would probably be safe to assume that a lot of those people that came here for the real estate boom left when it went bust.

I'm not an economist and don't pretend to be. But I have lived here long enough (almost 3 decades) to notice the trends and changes in our local economy. More employers are starting to hire again. Restaurants and stores are busy again. People are buying new cars. Builders are doing new construction in Sarasota and Bradenton, although more are building in south Manatee than Sarasota (Bradenton, Lakewood Ranch, Parrish, Ellenton). Lakewood Ranch has several new communities, including Esplanade, a huge planned community, and Palmer Ranch has a new Taylor Morrison community in the works, in addition to another phase coming soon for The Isles. Talk to the building reps, demand is strong for new construction. Many of the buyers are moving here to retire, paying cash for their new homes. Builders such as Taylor Morrison, Neal Communities, Medallion Homes and others do not make financial decisions lightly to start building new communities in an area. There is a lot of research behind those decisions.

If you have doubts about whether this is a good time for you personally to buy a home in our area, you can always rent something, preferably in one of your targeted neighborhoods, while you track both the local market trends and national economy. That way you can enjoy the local amenities and determine if the neighborhood that looked good on paper is actually where you want to put down roots. Who knows, you may look around and decide on something totally different than what you originally thought you wanted.
Fantastic post sunshine! Thank you very much!

I understand all you wrote..and yes I believe what you are saying and witnessing currently. However what nobody here is paying attention to is.. "what is coming in the economy over the next few years"
THAT is the question we all wish we could answer..all we could do is speculate..

With this speculation.. I am trying to get a healthy debate going over what the "forward" thoughts of various folks are.

So with this question.. I pose the "risks" to the economy..

- poor job market
- stagnant or declining incomes
- the majority of new jobs are low paying "service" jobs.. Where are the high paying jobs?
- inflation now and much more coming thanks to continuing fed printing of new money
- interest rates rising
- income tax rates WILL be going up..they have to!
- the youth of the nation not buying homes.. Mortgages hard to get with low income and no savings
- massive "shadow inventory" of homes still to hit the market.

Given the above.. I ponder.. How is it possible for the housing market to recover and sustain continuing price increases?

Remember the only reason the market isn't flooded with bank owed homes right now is because the banks are purposely holding them off the market in order to keep prices from plummeting. The banks want the homes sold for as much as they can get. this "shadow inventory" keeps rising however.. There WILL come a point that the banks need to speed up the process.. That's when the housing market in my opinion hits bottom.. I still think we have another 20 plus percent drop in values to go.

I'm in no rush to buy.. I will however be tracking the mls very carefully for my select areas of interest over the next year... Guess time will tell if my suspicions are right or wrong.

I do like the renting idea!
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Old 03-26-2012, 11:22 PM
 
715 posts, read 735,089 times
Reputation: 838
Coming from NY, five months ago, I can see housing prices stablizing and sellers sticking to their price points. Most of the buyers are people buying houses for vacation, retirement and rentals. Many are cash buyers. I don't think they are worried about losing their shirts on their purchase. Rental prices are increasing and investors are making money.

In NY, we lived in Westchester County, about 40 miles north of Manhattan. This was a wealthy surburb, (think Clinton, Ralph Lauren, Martha Stewart, Rockerfellers) and housing is also stablizing.

Being so close to Manhattan, jobs are there. People are working and still making good money. Businesses are hiring. Having friends in the financial field, most did not lose their jobs and those who did are now working again at top Wall Street firms and financial houses.

I do not see the doom and gloom you write about. I see Sarasota recovering and I don't think more foreclosures will drag the market down the way you are imagining. Boomers are retiring and moving somewhere. They won't be able to afford the high property taxes and fuel costs in the Northeast. I have no doubt they will move South, as we have. Property taxes in Westchester are extremely high (ours was over $20,000) but the schools are excellent. Retired folks are not going to stay there.

The banks are coming up with novel ideas about renting houses to owners who are underwater. They will eventually sell these houses as investments. There is a 'market' here on the Gulf Coast.

I remember gas prices were high last year. I remember gas lines back in the 80's. This Country has gone through some tough times and has recovered as it is doing now.
You must remember we live in a Democracy. We do not have a dictatorship. No matter who the President will be, he can't make any radical changes without the other branches of government agreeing. All the campaigning is balony. They can't do a thing by themselves.

My personal opinion on healthcare is that people need it. We, as tax payers are paying for the non-insured anyway. I was paying almost $1,000 a month to Aetna in NY. That policy went up each year for the 3 years I had it. I worked in the healthcare field. Those big insurers will do anything to not pay a dime to the doctors or patients while they line their pockets with big bucks. Healthcare is terrible and needs to be fixed.

People need insurance. To pretend that somehow this new healthcare law will change everything for the worse doesn't make sense. Healthcare companies are for profit. They profit off you. This new law will allow everyone to have healthcare they can afford so they don't overload Emergency Rooms. I see it helping the economy down the road.

Houses seem to be selling like hot-cakes. Construction is increasing and new businesses are opening. Foreclosures are selling as investors fix them up and flip them right back out. This is a creative society. People find ways to make money and it helps us all. That is what makes this such a great Country!

I think its a good time to get in and buy. One thing about growing older, you've seen the Country go through so many ups & downs, that you become much more comfortable getting through the down times. You know it won't last forever. I don't think Obama is a warlord and will avoid conflict with Iran as long as there is no direct attack. If it does happen, the combined power of the US and Israel will take care of that problem fast.

I would advise you to move ahead in your life and not dwell on the 'what ifs.'
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Old 03-27-2012, 06:27 AM
 
159 posts, read 293,598 times
Reputation: 55
Macyny.. Thank you for your input.
I live close by your old home. I can say the following with certainty... (I travel around the country for work.. My business has roughly 250 customers both large and small). Add to this I'm very heavily engaged in stocks, bond, and futures markets so I talk to many folks who work in finance.

My first response to your point is that we live in a "bubble" up here near nyc. This is NOT what the majority of America is like or feeling. The money the financial industry brings to this area is insane. If you believe for one second that our financial industry is fair and honest.. Well I'm sorry. The entire system is built on "hopium" and fake accounting... Banks are allowed two sets of books.. The rich keep getting richer.. Middle class is sinking further into poverty. I can assure you.. What this country is going through financially is like something never seen before.. It's a world problem now. This financial experiment of money printing will end in disaster.. Look back in history.. Ever empire falls once they undertake the path we are on.

Second health insurance.. I worked in the health insurance industry for many years.. I wrote their claims and Billing software. If you think this obamacare law is going to bring about cheaper, better quality health care.. Again you are very mistaken. What we need is "tort reform".. That's it.. Not this joke of a bill. I still keep in close contact with my past co-workers still writing health insurance software.. Wait till you see what is coming! You think health insurers don't want to pay now.. Let's have this conversation again in a few years.

I want to believe all is well and recovering in this country. I really do. Unfortunately the only people I see doing good are the financial industry. do you also believe the stock market is as high as it is today based on companies fundamentals?
look up mark-to-market accounting then we can discuss.

I could be all wrong.. who knows... The more research I do however is supporting my fears that the worst still lies ahead in the housing market. I really believe the American public is being "fooled" again by government/media. Let's see what the next 6-9 months bring about then we can reassess this post..
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Old 03-27-2012, 08:08 AM
 
287 posts, read 489,738 times
Reputation: 106
DT,

Are you one of the founders of "Occupy Wall Street"??
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Old 03-27-2012, 09:26 AM
 
5,786 posts, read 6,509,483 times
Reputation: 5051
Default Maybe Right :(

Quote:
Originally Posted by downthrust View Post

So with this question.. I pose the "risks" to the economy..

- poor job market
- stagnant or declining incomes
- the majority of new jobs are low paying "service" jobs.. Where are the high paying jobs?
- inflation now and much more coming thanks to continuing fed printing of new money
- interest rates rising
- income tax rates WILL be going up..they have to!
- the youth of the nation not buying homes.. Mortgages hard to get with low income and no savings
- massive "shadow inventory" of homes still to hit the market.

Given the above.. I ponder.. How is it possible for the housing market to recover and sustain continuing price increases?

Remember the only reason the market isn't flooded with bank owed homes right now is because the banks are purposely holding them off the market in order to keep prices from plummeting. The banks want the homes sold for as much as they can get. this "shadow inventory" keeps rising however.. There WILL come a point that the banks need to speed up the process.. That's when the housing market in my opinion hits bottom.. I still think we have another 20 plus percent drop in values to go.

I'm in no rush to buy.. I will however be tracking the mls very carefully for my select areas of interest over the next year... Guess time will tell if my suspicions are right or wrong.

I do like the renting idea!
Maybe you are correct--but very depressing!!!

When George W. Bush came into office, the economy was fine and Clinton left a surplus. But the Bush people didn't want to give Clinton credit so they talked about how bad things were. Surprise, because they talked it up, people believed them and voila' we had a recession and then the depression. There is some validity in how people feel and think affecting the economy. I prefer the upbeat forward looking opinion, like those of "Sunshine Rules."
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Old 03-27-2012, 09:59 AM
 
159 posts, read 293,598 times
Reputation: 55
funny.. actually I CAN'T stand those people.. which is one of the reasons I want to move out of the northeast... I think this summer is going to be lots of crazies up here near NYC... no thanks!!!

I am VERY conservative, but I despise BOTH sides of our government.. they are all corrupt! I have no affliation to any party.. the ONLY man I would vote for is Ron Paul.. but he will never get elected.. so we are doomed either way we go this election IMHO.. I would guess you can describe me as one who sticks to gun's and religion.. ya know.. one of those types that Obama calls nuts haha..

I definatly belong in the south, the north is becoming a cesspool.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WantPalmerRanch View Post
DT,

Are you one of the founders of "Occupy Wall Street"??
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Old 03-27-2012, 11:15 AM
 
14,507 posts, read 16,416,642 times
Reputation: 12963
- poor job market
- stagnant or declining incomes
- the majority of new jobs are low paying "service" jobs.. Where are the high paying jobs?
- inflation now and much more coming thanks to continuing fed printing of new money
- interest rates rising
- income tax rates WILL be going up..they have to!
- the youth of the nation not buying homes.. Mortgages hard to get with low income and no savings
- massive "shadow inventory" of homes still to hit the market.

---------------


I'll comment on the italic issues above in relation to the Sarasota county area - which 50% of the homes are paid for in cash(no mortgage) and many of the property owners are retirees.

When interest rates rise, lots of retirees will see their income rise, since the uber low interest rates of today are not giving them the income they used to earn on their CDs, savings, money markets, etc. The increase of income will give some folks here more buying power. Since so many cash buyers, mortgages/interest rates don't drive the market as much as in other states(though they might not be able to sell their home in the other state and come to FL to retire...that is an issue related to interest rates )

Youth of America not buying homes....that won't be a huge issue in this area since hardly any youth live in the area anyway, compared to other areas of the USA. They go to cool cities where there are other cool youth and where there are good jobs.

Poor job market and low incomes is something that has been occurring here for a long time anyway. It's nothing new and since so many retirees, it doesn't affect the whole population in metro Sarasota quite as much as other towns that have a balance of young and old and middle aged. However, there are some good jobs and the county commission recently grew a brain and started courting high paying/clean industry companies to the area. Plus many national companies are allowing work-from-home for their employees, and those folks might be moving here since they can live anywhere. Work-from-home is going to grow like crazy over the next 10-20 years.

Shadow Inventory. I think FL is one area that is ahead of the rest of the USA with the foreclosures already being on the market in large volume for quite some time. Seems the good deals get scooped up when they hit the market. doesn't seem like a huge glut of inventory is going to show up with the buyers on the sidelines like a few years ago.
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Old 03-27-2012, 11:39 AM
 
15 posts, read 26,638 times
Reputation: 33
Healthcare costs have been rising at a frightening pace for decades. The current system is broken, and the reason why many people don't recognize that it's broken is because they live in the cocoon of employer provided healthcare coverage. When you're in this cocoon you have no idea what it's like for self-employed people with health issues who struggle in the "free-market" health insurance system we currently have. The other main group opposed to healthcare reform are the people who see vast socialist conspiracies in every government dollar. Funny, but these people don't often point out one of the biggest and most effective socialist organizations in the world, which is the US military system.

You say you're young and healthy? Great! The free-market insurance companies will be happy to sell you a policy. You're sick and old? Sorry, you're a bad risk and we don't sell policies to people like you, unless the government makes us, and then we charge you exorbitant rates.

The Obama and Romney/Massachusetts plans (which are similar) are far from perfect, but they're a start. We have had Medicare and the VA healthcare system in place for decades and the world hasn't ended. In fact, they have helped millions of seniors and veterans to get good health care.

In any case, the health care issue is not going to materially affect Sarasota real estate prices one way or the other any time soon. Sorry for contributing to the digression, but I felt some counterpoint to the hysteria was needed.
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Old 03-28-2012, 09:27 AM
 
287 posts, read 489,738 times
Reputation: 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by downthrust View Post
funny.. actually I CAN'T stand those people.. which is one of the reasons I want to move out of the northeast... I think this summer is going to be lots of crazies up here near NYC... no thanks!!!

I am VERY conservative, but I despise BOTH sides of our government.. they are all corrupt! I have no affliation to any party.. the ONLY man I would vote for is Ron Paul.. but he will never get elected.. so we are doomed either way we go this election IMHO.. I would guess you can describe me as one who sticks to gun's and religion.. ya know.. one of those types that Obama calls nuts haha..

I definatly belong in the south, the north is becoming a cesspool.
'I definatly belong in the south, the north is becoming a cesspool.'

The South is not exactly rosy bathwater either but it appears to be a more likely place to gain control of the corruption, etc.

BTW, stick to your guns literally. Visit a range and learn.
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Old 03-29-2012, 08:09 PM
 
811 posts, read 1,323,199 times
Reputation: 423
Area real estate sales up 20% last two months | HeraldTribune.com
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