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I think the 'younger folk' are moving down there because of the high cost of living in the northeast... so I DO AGREE that the younger folk will be the reason 'home prices' may have more 'strength' in florida.. I do NOT however agree that the 'baby boomers' will drive prices up there... fixed income living is going to eat people alive very soon... do you not believe $5 gas, another 10-20% increase in food, and health insurance is going to go up drastically soon?
just of note.. a very good friend of mine runs a fairly large health insurance sales firm down in southerwestern fort myers... he told me with the new 'obama care' laws phasing into effect over in 2013-2014 to expect your health insurance premiums to double, maybe even triple. For instance in NJ.. a young 30 something adult single person with say United Health or Aetna is paying about $500 per month to insurance just themselves with a $1,500 deductible. That SAME PLAN in Florida for the same age person is currently running about $170 per month. Well you CAN EXPECT that the costs of NJ people are going to be trickling down to Florida folks... so what happens when Floridians start having to pay double for their health insurance?
how about when food is up another 10-20% in the next few years?
how about when gas is over $5 per gallon?
and homeowners insurance, taxes, etc. continually rising?
add that all up.. then tell me how 'how' this is going to be good for the housing industry ANYWHERE in the country?
you can thank uncle same and Mr. Bernanke for printing trillions of new dollars.. just wait until the 'real inflation' hits us... we haven't seen anything yet!!!
so as I DO AGREE that at the moment people in your area of Florida may be seeing the housing market flatten to slightly rise.. well the more and more I keep reading and reseaching leads me to believe in my heart that it's all just a 'short term joke'... I think after the election the real hit to the economy will begin..
I would imagine if you asked all the folks in 2004-2006 on the 'future prospects' of Florida realestate they would all say "BUY BUY BUY.. PRICES ARE GOING UP". Well we all saw how that story ended up playing out... what I'm trying to avoid is another one of these 'feel good times' playing me as a fool... it happened to me when I purchased my home in 2005.. and now I am trying to not make the same mistake again.
"Pending home sales edged lower in February, according to a report Monday from the National Association of Realtors, raising questions about the housing market recovery.
The pending home sales index slipped by 0.5 percent to 96.5 in February from 97.0 the previous month, but it was up 9.2 percent from the year-earlier period.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected signed contracts, which lead existing home sales by a month or two, to advance 1 percent, after a previously reported 2.0 percent rise."
As we understand it "Obamacare" is supposed to be cover a majority of the middle-class that don't have insurance because their small business employers can't afford it.
For the upper-class they will be paying a premium for their cadillac plans so they would be discouraged and discontinued.
Most of Europe has National insurance- you don't think it'll be right for the US?
Home energy costs will probably go up for a few reasons -China, War, etc.
This will also bring buyers to Florida.
We have a hunch the bottom in our area if we haven't hit it yet will be within the next 12 months.
and if you don't 'buy' insurance you get 'fined'.. that should go over well!!
I hope you are joking about Europe.. really? Europe.. have you been following their fiscal situation over there? is that the road we want to go down?
Home energy costs will hurt EVERYBODY.. I don't care where you live. Yes people will come to florida.. but they will be losing money selling.. so they would not be expecting to pay a premium for floridia.. they are moving to save money and have better weather.. but money is going to be the driving factor.. you think that housing prices won't take a hit in florida too if they are getting hit everywhere else?
If I recall Florida took one of the biggest hits in the country back in 2008 when millions of jobs were lost? if all those folks losing jobs 'moved to florida' then why didn't florida's real estate market POP higher?
believe me.. I really want to 'think the market bottom is in' and that the next year or two the market is going up.. I would LOVE to buy right now.. but I just can't see the next year of what's coming in this economy to HELP out in any way the housing market.
you are also not thinking interest rates.. you don't think interest rates are going to rise in the next couple years? What happens to housing prices are interest rates rise?
Quote:
Originally Posted by WantPalmerRanch
As we understand it "Obamacare" is supposed to be cover a majority of the middle-class that don't have insurance because their small business employers can't afford it.
For the upper-class they will be paying a premium for their cadillac plans so they would be discouraged and discontinued.
Most of Europe has National insurance- you don't think it'll be right for the US?
Home energy costs will probably go up for a few reasons -China, War, etc.
This will also bring buyers to Florida.
We have a hunch the bottom in our area if we haven't hit it yet will be within the next 12 months.
"Pending home sales edged lower in February, according to a report Monday from the National Association of Realtors, raising questions about the housing market recovery.
The pending home sales index slipped by 0.5 percent to 96.5 in February from 97.0 the previous month, but it was up 9.2 percent from the year-earlier period.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected signed contracts, which lead existing home sales by a month or two, to advance 1 percent, after a previously reported 2.0 percent rise."
and if you don't 'buy' insurance you get 'fined'.. that should go over well!!
I hope you are joking about Europe.. really? Europe.. have you been following their fiscal situation over there? is that the road we want to go down?
Home energy costs will hurt EVERYBODY.. I don't care where you live. Yes people will come to florida.. but they will be losing money selling.. so they would not be expecting to pay a premium for floridia.. they are moving to save money and have better weather.. but money is going to be the driving factor.. you think that housing prices won't take a hit in florida too if they are getting hit everywhere else?
If I recall Florida took one of the biggest hits in the country back in 2008 when millions of jobs were lost? if all those folks losing jobs 'moved to florida' then why didn't florida's real estate market POP higher?
believe me.. I really want to 'think the market bottom is in' and that the next year or two the market is going up.. I would LOVE to buy right now.. but I just can't see the next year of what's coming in this economy to HELP out in any way the housing market.
you are also not thinking interest rates.. you don't think interest rates are going to rise in the next couple years? What happens to housing prices are interest rates rise?
You cannot throw 'all' of Europe's economic policies in the same bucket as health care. All of Europe is made of several small 'countries' the size of one US State. Take Germany for example. They just had trillions of Euros in surplus in their health care. They now have to figure what to do with it, like paying back the individual payee or support new programs. Why the surplus? It is not for profit. No CEO's. And no, people do not go bankrupt over health care, they don't have to wait for cancer treatment either. It is a great working government system!
Location: Sarasota/ Bradenton - University Pkwy area
4,615 posts, read 7,537,235 times
Reputation: 6036
I understand where you're going with attempting to get an overall, big picture of the real estate market and economy.
I took a course in college on statistics and statistical data. The main thing I took away from that class was that it is almost impossible to get true, pure data that is not biased in some way by the process or those doing the statistical analysis.
Since we agents do have access to the actual real estate sales numbers for the area market, it is easier to obtain a factual picture of the local market as the numbers are readily available, not filtered by an outside source.
In the local Sarasota market, February pending sales were up 15.8% vs January 2012 and almost 25% higher than February of 2011. Inventories of homes in our market are down. As of the end of February our local market overall was at a 6.9 month supply of homes but when you factor in pending sales, it drops to a 4.1 month supply. I check the daily MLS hot sheet and most days the number of sale pendings is exceeding the number of new listings.
As to trends, I am noticing a new trend regarding short sales in Sarasota. The banks are starting to counter back at prices that are much closer to the upper end of the price range for the homes vs the lower end of the range where short sale prices have typically trended. In other words, the banks want a sales price that is much closer to a "normal" sale. I've talked with several agents about this who say they are also seeing banks coming back at higher prices for short sale properties, both homes and condos/villas. I don't yet know if the same is true in other nearby towns such as Venice, Bradenton or Parrish.
You mentioned the FL economy in 2008. Back during the "boom" real estate years of 2002 - 2005, people flocked to FL to get in on the profit taking. People working in construction and related services, banking, surveying, home inspections, retail sales, real estate sales, etc. When the market started going bust in 2006 - 2007, the jobs started drying up, disappearing. Construction came to a standstill. That started a migration trend out of FL. I don't know the statistical breakdown of who was leaving FL, but it would probably be safe to assume that a lot of those people that came here for the real estate boom left when it went bust.
I'm not an economist and don't pretend to be. But I have lived here long enough (almost 3 decades) to notice the trends and changes in our local economy. More employers are starting to hire again. Restaurants and stores are busy again. People are buying new cars. Builders are doing new construction in Sarasota and Bradenton, although more are building in south Manatee than Sarasota (Bradenton, Lakewood Ranch, Parrish, Ellenton). Lakewood Ranch has several new communities, including Esplanade, a huge planned community, and Palmer Ranch has a new Taylor Morrison community in the works, in addition to another phase coming soon for The Isles. Talk to the building reps, demand is strong for new construction. Many of the buyers are moving here to retire, paying cash for their new homes. Builders such as Taylor Morrison, Neal Communities, Medallion Homes and others do not make financial decisions lightly to start building new communities in an area. There is a lot of research behind those decisions.
If you have doubts about whether this is a good time for you personally to buy a home in our area, you can always rent something, preferably in one of your targeted neighborhoods, while you track both the local market trends and national economy. That way you can enjoy the local amenities and determine if the neighborhood that looked good on paper is actually where you want to put down roots. Who knows, you may look around and decide on something totally different than what you originally thought you wanted.
I understand where you're going with attempting to get an overall, big picture of the real estate market and economy.
I took a course in college on statistics and statistical data. The main thing I took away from that class was that it is almost impossible to get true, pure data that is not biased in some way by the process or those doing the statistical analysis.
Since we agents do have access to the actual real estate sales numbers for the area market, it is easier to obtain a factual picture of the local market as the numbers are readily available, not filtered by an outside source.
In the local Sarasota market, February pending sales were up 15.8% vs January 2012 and almost 25% higher than February of 2011. Inventories of homes in our market are down. As of the end of February our local market overall was at a 6.9 month supply of homes but when you factor in pending sales, it drops to a 4.1 month supply. I check the daily MLS hot sheet and most days the number of sale pendings is exceeding the number of new listings.
As to trends, I am noticing a new trend regarding short sales in Sarasota. The banks are starting to counter back at prices that are much closer to the upper end of the price range for the homes vs the lower end of the range where short sale prices have typically trended. In other words, the banks want a sales price that is much closer to a "normal" sale. I've talked with several agents about this who say they are also seeing banks coming back at higher prices for short sale properties, both homes and condos/villas. I don't yet know if the same is true in other nearby towns such as Venice, Bradenton or Parrish.
You mentioned the FL economy in 2008. Back during the "boom" real estate years of 2002 - 2005, people flocked to FL to get in on the profit taking. People working in construction and related services, banking, surveying, home inspections, retail sales, real estate sales, etc. When the market started going bust in 2006 - 2007, the jobs started drying up, disappearing. Construction came to a standstill. That started a migration trend out of FL. I don't know the statistical breakdown of who was leaving FL, but it would probably be safe to assume that a lot of those people that came here for the real estate boom left when it went bust.
I'm not an economist and don't pretend to be. But I have lived here long enough (almost 3 decades) to notice the trends and changes in our local economy. More employers are starting to hire again. Restaurants and stores are busy again. People are buying new cars. Builders are doing new construction in Sarasota and Bradenton, although more are building in south Manatee than Sarasota (Bradenton, Lakewood Ranch, Parrish, Ellenton). Lakewood Ranch has several new communities, including Esplanade, a huge planned community, and Palmer Ranch has a new Taylor Morrison community in the works, in addition to another phase coming soon for The Isles. Talk to the building reps, demand is strong for new construction. Many of the buyers are moving here to retire, paying cash for their new homes. Builders such as Taylor Morrison, Neal Communities, Medallion Homes and others do not make financial decisions lightly to start building new communities in an area. There is a lot of research behind those decisions.
If you have doubts about whether this is a good time for you personally to buy a home in our area, you can always rent something, preferably in one of your targeted neighborhoods, while you track both the local market trends and national economy. That way you can enjoy the local amenities and determine if the neighborhood that looked good on paper is actually where you want to put down roots. Who knows, you may look around and decide on something totally different than what you originally thought you wanted.
Another most excellent post by Sunshine Rules!
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