It’s becoming more likely Hurricane Irma will at least affect U.S., if not make landfall (Tampa: zip code, moving)

[loves2read]

The Weather Service was slow to adopt the Euro model which showed a western landing more than once since Irma got serious. Now others agree with it.
VERY serious storm.
I know the weather guys often say you shelter from wind and run from water --
but this storm will cover the state with some very, very strong winds...and there will be a very strong storm surge...

[Avalon08]

Originally Posted by wondermint2

The problem seems to be that nobody really knows what the ultimate path of Hurricane Irma is going to be - and we won't really have a much more certain outcome until Saturday after Irma makes it Northward turn. However by Saturday if we find out that a West Coast hit is most probable it will be too late to leave by then. Some people probably already decided to stay because yesterday the models had Irma shifted to the East.

Right, it certainly looked like we might even have been outside of the cone....until that d*mn European model shifted, and now Sarasota/Bradenton are all part of the mix. I didn't leave because I physically cannot drive that far and I have two dogs. I'm in Manatee Evac Zone D, which is better than A, but I'm like 2 blocks from A. Totally freaked out....I feel like my blood pressure is sky-high. And I don't think it's even supposed to hit here until Sunday...

[loves2read]

https://arstechnica.com/science/2017...t-good-reason/
Article by Houston meteorologist about Irma and her special qualities

[bbronston]

According to John Scalzi at ABC7, the predicted track has shifted west but the good news is that it is expected to be a cat 2 by the time it hits our latitude. Not that a cat 2 is a good thing but it is definitely more survivable than a 4 or 5 making landfall here.

[loves2read]

I cant watch Sarasota tv here in Tx
But posters on CD hurricane board expect it to be a 4
The Euro model which had proven more accurate than others (not my opinionbut weather authorities) only knocks it to a 3

Waters between where she is now and FL are not that cool are they? To slow her down?
Why did he think she would lose that much dynamic energy?
Would be great---but it's almost too good to be true...

[PBToast]

The water is very warm there. The weather Bugs disagree, some saying it will increase prior to landfall, others think it's weakening. This is going to be a last minute thing where it turns and suddenly they get the landfall target. It's a cone for a reason, the possible target space is wide. It is so very hard for people not knowing exactly where!

Saw a model where it comes in at Naples and heads over to Disney then out at Jacksonville (latest UK I think). Others have it hugging the west coast, and still others closer to the spine all the way up the middle. Very frustrating! the only thing you can do is watch the track and notice the wind speed the hurricane planes report as they fly through the eye.

It would be very nice if it weakened after Cuba. Remember though, Harvey made landfall about 25 miles off the predicted spot. It was supposed to be Corpus Christie and it ended up at Rockport. that's about the best they can do.

[Sunshine Rules]

The National Hurricane Center now has the coastal region in southern Sarasota County under a storm surge warning, meaning there is a chance of “life-threatening inundation.” Venice and southward can expect a storm surge of 3 to 6 feet. Therefore the county has issued mandatory evacuation of the barrier islands and coastal areas, zone A.

Manatee county has also now issued mandatory evacuation of zone A, barrier islands and coastal regions, as well as all mobile homes, wherever they are located.

Hopefully people will evacuate where required as authorities are saying that once the wind speeds hit 35+ sustained, all emergency personnel will be pulled off of the roads until it's safe again.

[newtovenice]

Watching the 2 pm Sarasota County press conference.

They expect it to be a Cat 2 when it reaches Sarasota County.

https://www.facebook.com/permalink.p...04895709877272

Scroll down to get to the conference.

[wondermint2]

It looks to me like according to the National Hurricane Center's 5PM update (to their Hurricane Irma graphic) - the Sarasota area is now in the Hurricane Warning zone. Am I reading this correctly? Previously this graphic had the Sarasota area only in the Hurricane Watch zone. So this doesn't seem to be looking good for us....

HURRICANE IRMA

[loves2read]

Originally Posted by newtovenice

Watching the 2 pm Sarasota County press conference.

They expect it to be a Cat 2 when it reaches Sarasota County.

https://www.facebook.com/permalink.p...04895709877272

Scroll down to get to the conference.

Why?
It is a 5 again
Why will it drop 3 power zones?