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Old 10-08-2018, 07:46 PM
 
13 posts, read 21,752 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by beach43ofus View Post
Thank-you Sunshine. Lots of great news there too.
I'll be one of Sunshines stastics!!
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Old 10-11-2018, 02:35 PM
 
6,825 posts, read 4,419,279 times
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Interest rates have been rising sharply recently. The past few days the stock market has tumbled:

https://www.thestreet.com/amp/market...ls-on-14741468

IMO we are close to a slowdown in the economy. That is the effect rising interest rates will have. Real estate prices will also cool down. For various reasons rental price increases are slowing in this region.

IMO this is not the time to throw caution to the wind concerning the expanding economy. We are certainly closer to a "top" than a "bottom".
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Old 10-11-2018, 05:22 PM
 
Location: Free State of Florida
25,315 posts, read 12,430,242 times
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When interest rates rise, money shifts from stocks to bonds and it can slow housing but we are still at amazingly low mortgage interest rates. I think we have a money musical chairs right now and the music hasnt stopped playing yet.

It will be interesting to see if the stock market can stop its 1300 point tumble.

The basics of rising GDP, strong employment, rising wages, strong consumer confidence should keep the ball moving downfield, but it cant last forever. I do see more uncertainty in the markets though for sure.

The Fed may have been premature in raising rates again.
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Old 10-16-2018, 05:15 AM
 
Location: Free State of Florida
25,315 posts, read 12,430,242 times
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The Florida residents who spend some time up North each Summer have returned in droves...earlier than normal too. I think the hot economy and the receding Red Tide is going to bring us a lot of traffic and crowds this season. Maybe not a record season for our economy, but as good as last year. I don't see things dropping off.

We tried to go out Saturday night at 7:30pm, and we couldn't find a parking spot in the 1st 2 places we went to. We drove past 2 more of our normal haunts, and those lots were almost full too. By the 5th place, we were tired of driving around and very hungry so we anchored there.

We thought things would have cleared out by 7:30...wrong! Mostly Florida tags in the lots, just a small spattering of out of State. That is why I said I think its returning Floridia residents who spend a few months up North.
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Old 11-14-2018, 04:27 PM
 
37,315 posts, read 59,557,897 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by beach43ofus View Post
The Florida residents who spend some time up North each Summer have returned in droves...earlier than normal too. I think the hot economy and the receding Red Tide is going to bring us a lot of traffic and crowds this season. Maybe not a record season for our economy, but as good as last year. I don't see things dropping off.

We tried to go out Saturday night at 7:30pm, and we couldn't find a parking spot in the 1st 2 places we went to. We drove past 2 more of our normal haunts, and those lots were almost full too. By the 5th place, we were tired of driving around and very hungry so we anchored there.

We thought things would have cleared out by 7:30...wrong! Mostly Florida tags in the lots, just a small spattering of out of State. That is why I said I think its returning Floridia residents who spend a few months up North.
I don't know how long you have lived here
But what you describe is not new
Winter residents are coming back
Roads are much more crowded
As are restaurants
It happens in November
Don't make more of it than it is

And Sarasota area has very high $ housing costs
Rising rates might not hurt here as much as other areas if seniors or the wealthy buyers are paying cash
There are lot of foreign buyers but with the stronger dollar that might slow
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Old 11-15-2018, 04:39 AM
 
Location: Free State of Florida
25,315 posts, read 12,430,242 times
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I'm on my 3rd stint in Florida. First time for College for 5 yrs, then I left after graduating. I worked my way back & stayed for 10 yrs in Tampa, St. Pete, & Bradenton. Then I took an out of state promotion (dumb move) & I just returned 2 yrs ago after being away for 20 yrs. So 17 yrs in all in FLA on both coasts & 4 different cities.

I failed to make my main point clear in my mid-October post. That was that so many of the snowbirds had returned by mid-October, and my 17 prior years here, I had never experienced that before. We used to get very few before Thanksgiving. To see lines at multiple restaurants in mid-October was totally new to me.

I've been away from Florida for 20 years, and just returned 2 years ago, so that change jumped out at me as being quite dramatic. If you had been living here all along, you might not have noticed it because it might have happened gradually over a long time frame.

The other change I saw was even more noticeable. It is where the snowbirds are coming from. They used to be predominatly midwesterners & Canadians. Hardly any from the Northeast. The Northeaterners used to mostly go to SE Florida. Now, Northeasterners dominate here, and Midwesterners have fallen off significantly. Canadians about the same.

I think some Midwesterners are now going to the Panhandle. When I go there, I see a lot of Midwestern car tags.

I'd love to see stats on these migrations. I'm sure the State of Florida tourism board has them, but I don't recall seeing any articles about it. I wonder if the Sarasota Tourism Marketing lady shifted her ad dollars from MW to the NE? Or, did SE FLA just become too costly and overcrowded?
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Old 11-15-2018, 08:23 AM
 
37,315 posts, read 59,557,897 times
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Snowbirds coming down varies
I think they likely read this would be a bad Weiner and came early
There has been unusually early snowfall in areas that don't usually get snow
If you have been here for two years-in this area vs Tampa--that is not a very long time to base your actual/factual opinions

We have been coming here for the past 15 yrs and have owned home for 6
Seasons vary
Snowbirds vary
Because this area has higher % of retirees and higher average income than Tampa area and others in FL dynamics here are different than in some other areas

I can remember in 08==being at Sarasota Mall and listening to people who were likely mid 50s (younger than I was) talking about the market and bemoaning the slow RE economy--but they owned their home and were sad they couldn't sell at profit--but they were not pushed into selling because they were going bankrupt or anything...
They were just unhappy the world was not running to their expectations...

There are lot of new construction developments happening
I don't know who the developers expect to buy them--seniors, semi-retired people who anticipate buying ahead of retirement and moving here full-time, families with jobs in the area who are moving here....
The fields I see advertising jobs most are IT, health care--
Those fields can support buying a home--especially if it is a two-earner household

Service jobs--mechanics, electricians, construction, restaurant -- those jobs are more iffy for ownership in rising rates...
Those people if they own homes won't be able to refinance at lower rates like they might have in the past
They likely won't be moving to larger homes if they have more kids...

What will effect home sales more than anything is inventory
If inventory has been scare in past 18 months, I don't think it will be going into the next 18 months
And that factor as much as mortgage rates will do more to make this a buyers' market==if that is what it was...
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Old 11-16-2018, 12:10 PM
 
Location: Free State of Florida
25,315 posts, read 12,430,242 times
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loves2read said: "There has been unusually early snowfall in areas that don't usually get snow"

More proof of global cooling as NASA has stated recently due to low Sun spot activity...may be causing a mini-ice age.

Florida's economy will boom if this is true as Northerners will migrate South to Sunny Florida.

Heck, we might need to hire people to shovel snow and drive snow plow trucks in the years ahead if NASA's right!
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Old 12-06-2018, 11:42 AM
 
Location: Illinois and Florida
180 posts, read 261,013 times
Reputation: 215
Quote:
Originally Posted by beach43ofus View Post
I just read that we now have the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years. I wonder how that will impact our local economy. More people working has got to mean more tourism (Red Tide won't last forever), more property sales, more buying stuff, more dining out. Wages are finally showing some growth too. Stocks at all time highs, interest rates finally climbing again. Let the good times roll!
You're kidding, right? You are aware that the unemployment rate and stock market has been trending that way for the past 10 years, aren't you? (Well, except for stocks recently. The stock market "mini-crash" due to trade policies which wiped out all gains made in the last 1 1/2 years. I'm surprised you didn't know that. I couldn't help noticing since I lost more money this year than many people earn.) You sound like you just discovered that we have a stock market and an unemployment rate.
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Old 12-06-2018, 12:41 PM
 
Location: Free State of Florida
25,315 posts, read 12,430,242 times
Reputation: 18919
I stand by the facts in my prior post. Your snarky comments tell me all I need to now about you.
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