Is Sarasota in a bubble (Port St. Lucie, Naples: townhome, purchaser, store)

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by brianwy

I think you need to include more hypotheticals in your analysis, you don't have enough what ifs....I based my analysis on this being your primary home and paying cash. If the market dumps you will still need a place to live and its paid for, so what if it goes down 40% as long as you dont have 50%+ of your net worth tied up in the house

I didn't base my opinion on someone owning multiple homes they can barely afford them if the market corrects or someone being completely undiversified owning $1m in one single stock.

Yea, they sold their business and put 1 million in AIG. I'm not a stock expert but I know that's not how you do it. THe second home they bought wasn't cheap. They also put a lot of money into it to remodel it.

[jack_m_roun]

Only the uneducated, gullible, intoxicated or foolish "expert" would contend this area's housing price acceleration represents an "orderly market".


Laughable.


Even the "bidding" is chaotic, orderly my butt. There is really no state of equilibrium. The demand is outstripping supply - whether real or perceived. My experience and opinion is that the hallmarks of an "orderly market" have competitive prices that are stable and reflect a documented true value. WE have no such thing here in this locale. We only see volatility to the upside.


Silly indeed.

[Trying941]

Originally Posted by brianwy

I think what many here fail to realize is that many of the recent retirees moving here are more affluent than many who moved here in past years. Many see the area as a bargain compared to the SE coast of Florida.

You have made a very important point that I agree many here fail to realize. This area is still a bargain compared to the SE coast of Florida. A 3,000 sq ft single level home from Kolter in the Artistry north of North Palm Beach will cost from $1.8-2m. In Sarasota's Artistry it is half of that.

[jack_m_roun]

ALL real estate is LOCAL.


What intelligent buyer is foolish enough to compare Jupiter SF house prices with Lakeland, or New Tampa, say Avila with that of Coconut Grove.....or Ponte Vedra with that of Fisher Island?
or say Buckhead (GA) with that of Columbus (GA).


Anything is a bargain for anyone moving here from Darien, Manhattan, DC, LaJolla, Red Bank, Oak Brook, Shaker Heights, Portland, Seattle, Fairfax VA or Cote D'Azure.


Comparing intra-state housing values (and COL) in most cases is non sequitur, and moronic.


For instance only, for those of us are southerners, within the MSA of Birmingham AL, it is purely stupid to compare the Housing "bargain" of a very nice new house in Bessemer, AL, to a similar size house in Mountain Brook, AL - both fairly close within the same MSA. The housing in Madison/Huntsville AL is a "bargain" compared to housing in Mountain Brook or Vestavia Hills AL. Housing in Brunswick GA and coastal towns is a "bargain" compared to housing on St. Simons, Sea, or Jekyll Island, all near the Atlantic Ocean.


ALL real estate is local, and this locale seems quite on its way to being stupidly priced.


Bless their hearts if they think it's a bargain. Many experts may disagree....loudly.

[beach43ofus]

Originally Posted by Trying941

You have made a very important point that I agree many here fail to realize. This area is still a bargain compared to the SE coast of Florida. A 3,000 sq ft single level home from Kolter in the Artistry north of North Palm Beach will cost from $1.8-2m. In Sarasota's Artistry it is half of that.

We liked the British West Indies look of the homes at Artistry in Sarasota, but didnt care for the location...too far East for us. Interesting the price comparison to SE FLA though...same sized lots, and same home models? Is it truly Apples to Apples? How close to the beach is Artistry in Naples?

We also compared identical homes/lot from this forum area to Naples (4 years ago) built by Taylor Morison (Esplanade), & this forum area was 20% less than Naples in an Apples to Apples comparison.

I feel this area still has at least 20% more to run in 2022...I'm no expert, or realtor...just applying trends from the recent past, & projecting them out into the future.

The rate of growth is already slowing, but I don't see nominal values receding until maybe 2023. It depends upon inflation, interest rates, & how quickly the supply chain recovers from C-19.

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

We liked the British West Indies look of the homes at Artistry in Sarasota, but didnt care for the location...too far East for us. Interesting the price comparison to SE FLA though...same sized lots, and same home models? Is it truly Apples to Apples? How close to the beach is Artistry in Naples?

We also compared identical homes/lot from this forum area to Naples (4 years ago) built by Taylor Morison (Esplanade), & this forum area was 20% less than Naples in an Apples to Apples comparison.

I feel this area still has at least 20% more to run in 2022...I'm no expert, or realtor...just applying trends from the recent past, & projecting them out into the future.

The rate of growth is already slowing, but I don't see nominal values receding until maybe 2023. It depends upon inflation, interest rates, & how quickly the supply chain recovers from C-19.

What is your take on supply issues? I mean building materials? Can't blame Covid on everything like the liberal media does.

Me thinks some of it is manufacturers cutting production and raising prices and in return makes higher profit for them.

Naples is a very overpriced market. It started like this in the late 1990s when I lived there. For about 2008 to 2011 the prices were more reasonable due to the crash but other than that it's very high priced.

I will say traffic wise Naples is much more easier to navigate than Sarasota.

I totally believe you about Naples being 20 percent more.

Very wealthy area.

Have you ever driven around Port Royal? They will make anywhere in Sarasota look like hobos.

[beach43ofus]

Supply chains for homes are global. "Single-source provider" has been a key selling point for years, but now it turned out to be a liability because when that single source provider cannot provide, your supply chain fails. Wholesalers did not keep back-up suppliers because minimizing the # of suppleirs was thought to reduce overheads....like reducing SKU's for retailers.

"Just-in-time" also killed us because suppliers became too accustomed to not having any inventory on hand. If you have no inventory, then any disruption to the supply chain disrupts your production flows.

So, now that its global, it is very tough to forecast the recovery time. Our gov't paying workers to stay home, exasperated the situation too...as did gov't shutdown directives. I felt all along that workers <50 yrs old should keep working, distance & mask but my opinion was a moot point.

I disagree that businesses are cutting production on purpose to drive up prices. That could result in lost revenues, profits, & market share. Higher profit margins are just 1 objective...higher nominal profits are key.

Businesses strive to smooth out production & sales into a more manageable equilibrium. Most will strive to maintain the status quo to avoid shortages or surplusses of inventories & labor.

yes, I've ridden bikes up & down the streets in Port Royal, but SRQ has somewhat similar affluence just South of downtown along Sarasota Bay too. Not as much land, but impressive mansions backing the Bay behind huge gates abound...an area called "West of the trail" No doubt, more $ in Naples though...for now.

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

Supply chains for homes are global. "Single-source provider" has been a key selling point for years, but now it turned out to be a liability because when that single source provider cannot provide, your supply chain fails. Wholesalers did not keep back-up suppliers because minimizing the # of suppleirs was thought to reduce overheads....like reducing SKU's for retailers.

"Just-in-time" also killed us because suppliers became too accustomed to not having any inventory on hand. If you have no inventory, then any disruption to the supply chain disrupts your production flows.

So, now that its global, it is very tough to forecast the recovery time. Our gov't paying workers to stay home, exasperated the situation too...as did gov't shutdown directives. I felt all along that workers <50 yrs old should keep working, distance & mask but my opinion was a moot point.

I disagree that businesses are cutting production on purpose to drive up prices. That could result in lost revenues, profits, & market share. Higher profit margins are just 1 objective...higher nominal profits are key.

Businesses strive to smooth out production & sales into a more manageable equilibrium. Most will strive to maintain the status quo to avoid shortages or surplusses of inventories & labor.

yes, I've ridden bikes up & down the streets in Port Royal, but SRQ has somewhat similar affluence just South of downtown along Sarasota Bay too. Not as much land, but impressive mansions backing the Bay behind huge gates abound...an area called "West of the trail" No doubt, more $ in Naples though...for now.

Just in Time inventory is a terrible ideal in business. Many retailers use that style too. Run inventory to bare bones before getting orders in. That's why Best Buy, Home Depot, Publix runs out of stuff a lot. Just a small kink in the chain will cause your inventory to be out of whack. I run a small retail shop. I do NOT use just in time inventory, especially on popular items.

I don't see the Sarasota area ever being like Port Royal, Moorings, Gulf Shore blvd. That's the next level up.

The thing about Naples is most of those multi millionaires are people we've never heard of. The big name players are in West Palm and Miami. Most of them are low keys multi millionaires in SWFL.

Naples has a ton of multi millionaires and a few billionaires mix in. But a ton of millionaires for such a small area. The mega money people are in SEFL.

[MOforthewin]

Look at this house in Naples. Look at the 2015 price to the current asking price! My god that's tacky as sh*t looking too.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...43734862_zpid/

[beach43ofus]

Originally Posted by MOforthewin

Look at this house in Naples. Look at the 2015 price to the current asking price! My god that's tacky as sh*t looking too.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...43734862_zpid/

Whomever is selling this property is not seeing any real estate bubble in SW Florida, that much is for sure.

The ppsqft is like SF or NYC. Anything waterfront in SW FLA that can moor a boat is going up up and away.

Why? The marina's have 1-2 year long wait lists now, so if you want to own a boat, you have to trailer it (total p.i.t.a.) or buy waterfront property. Not many Naples residents are going to trailer their yachts, because the yachts are too large. Thus, waterfront home ownership is the only path if you want to be a yacht owner in SW FLA. There are a limited # of waterfront properties in SW FLA, but high demand, so we are going to start seeing more of this level of pricing to supply the top 1%'ers moving here from all over.