Absorption Rate (Sarasota, North Port: good credit, unemployment rate, buyer)

[SoFLGal]

Far fewer foreclosure filings

http://www.heraldtribune.com/article...ail_newsletter

Both Sarasota and Manatee counties posted double-digit drops in foreclosure filings during August. The drop in Sarasota County was nearly 34 percent when compared with July and 17 percent when compared with August 2008. In Manatee, the drop was 19 percent from the previous month but up about 3 percent from a year ago.

[po14015]

251 Auctions at the Manatee County Courthouse for September. And October is looking to be a BIG month also.
https://www.manatee.realforeclose.co...ETHOD=CALENDAR

The next wave of price decreases coming soon.....

A last minute teacher job in Manatee County was listed for 24 hours and had over 600 applications. Do I need to say anymore on the job market?

By the way, here are the numbers by month at the Manatee County Courthouse:

May: 139
June: 137
July: 216
August: 187
September: 251
October as of Sept 16: 105 (this number will grow a lot)

[po14015]

[SIZE=2]"Option" mortgages to explode, officials warn[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2][/SIZE]
[SIZE=2][/SIZE]Option mortgages to explode, officials warn | Reuters

Combine it with this:

1.3 million to lose jobless benefits by year's end
The Associated Press: 1.3 million to lose jobless benefits by year's end

Also, the $8,000 credit ends soon. I doubt if that happens though. It most likely will be increased to $15,000.

I will add to the numbers in my above post to compare how much more 251 is:

Jan 09: 92
Feb 09: 138
March 09: 103
April 09: 97

May: 139
June: 137
July: 216
August: 187
September: 251

[SoFLGal]

Originally Posted by po14015

[SIZE=2]"Option" mortgages to explode, officials warn[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2][/SIZE]
[SIZE=2][/SIZE]Option mortgages to explode, officials warn | Reuters

Combine it with this:

1.3 million to lose jobless benefits by year's end
The Associated Press: 1.3 million to lose jobless benefits by year's end

Also, the $8,000 credit ends soon. I doubt if that happens though. It most likely will be increased to $15,000.

I will add to the numbers in my above post to compare how much more 251 is:

Jan 09: 92
Feb 09: 138
March 09: 103
April 09: 97

May: 139
June: 137
July: 216
August: 187
September: 251

Just wondering where you're getting your numbers from. Directly from the clerk of the court or somewhere else? Right now were seeing a huge decrease in the amount of foreclosures coming on the market. Talking with Realtors all over the country this is what they're seeing as well.

There are however a ton of short sales. Usually these end up as foreclosures, eventually. So, I'm guessing we'll be seeing more foreclosures.

The numbers you are showing don't match any of my reports and don't reflect what I am seeing every day for new listings coming on in the MLS. These numbers are for Manatee county, correct?

[Skunk Workz]

Originally Posted by po14015

[SIZE=2]"Option" mortgages to explode, officials warn[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2][/SIZE]
[SIZE=2][/SIZE]Option mortgages to explode, officials warn | Reuters

Combine it with this:

1.3 million to lose jobless benefits by year's end
The Associated Press: 1.3 million to lose jobless benefits by year's end

Also, the $8,000 credit ends soon. I doubt if that happens though. It most likely will be increased to $15,000.

I will add to the numbers in my above post to compare how much more 251 is:

Jan 09: 92
Feb 09: 138
March 09: 103
April 09: 97

May: 139
June: 137
July: 216
August: 187
September: 251

If you look at the case numbers, most of them are from 2007 and 2008, so these are auctions for properties that have been in the foreclosure process for a year or more.

You would have to look at filings to get a better idea of what is actually happening now.

[Skunk Workz]

Originally Posted by SoFLGal

Just wondering where you're getting your numbers from. Directly from the clerk of the court or somewhere else? Right now were seeing a huge decrease in the amount of foreclosures coming on the market. Talking with Realtors all over the country this is what they're seeing as well.

There are however a ton of short sales. Usually these end up as foreclosures, eventually. So, I'm guessing we'll be seeing more foreclosures.

The numbers you are showing don't match any of my reports and don't reflect what I am seeing every day for new listings coming on in the MLS. These numbers are for Manatee county, correct?

Sarasota: https://www.sarasota.realforeclose.com/index.cfm?zaction=user&zmethod=calendar&calDate={t s%20%272009-09-01%2000:00:00%27}

Manatee: https://www.manatee.realforeclose.co...ETHOD=CALENDAR

Charlotte: https://www.charlotte.realforeclose....ETHOD=CALENDAR

[HenryHelmhazzard]

For September 2009 a quick and dirty count of the foreclosures scheduled through the Sarasota Clerk of Court shows 263 foreclosures.

Could a national deceleration of foreclosures be due to fewer defaults, or a deliberate slowing on the part of banks to push them through? Trying to really comprehend this financial mess is like interpreting a really bad dream- the stock markets are up in spite of continuing unemployment (and horrific U6 numbers), credit shrinking, value of the dollar crashing, equities 'recovered'... a fundamental disconnect between reality and the markets. Try watching CNBC, then compare it to Bloomberg, then compare that with direct online research (govt reports straight from the source, news outlets, blogs) and you'll see that the media and markets have all gone schizophrenic. Bulls say don't fight the trend, the govt printing presses can go on indefinitely, Bears say that there is a price to pay for all of this and when it comes due...

Add to the craziness the fact that huge numbers of ARM resets are coming soon, and we may be in for a double dip recession, hard as that is a pill to swallow... or at the very least another nasty bump in the housing market. I hope not, but the numbers aren't promising.

Open discussion with parents and in-laws results in instant anger and denial that anything might be wrong with all this conflicting information.

Another bizarre data-point for Sarasota: Out of the last 100 foreclosure auctions, only 12 were purchased privately. If that holds up overall as a ballpark percentage, does that mean the vast majority of foreclosures either go to limbo or REO? Seems like anything over the $250k range in assessed value is almost ALWAYS canceled before auction or bought back by the bank. Ah, to have the inside story on this town.

HH

[SoFLGal]

It looks like we're running about a years worth of inventory with the exception of North Port, Port Charlotte and Bradenton.

North Port
# of listings in North Port= 610 active listings
# of listings sold from Aug 22-Sept 22: 105
# of listings sold from July 22-Aug 22: 124
# of listings sold from June 22-July 22: 136
# of listings sold from May 22-June 22: 148
# of listings sold from Apr 22-May 22: 157
# of listings sold from Mar 22-Apr 22: 145
815 homes sold in the last six months in NP. Average number of homes sold per month over the last 6 months in NP: 136 homes
#sold (136 homes) X 12 (months) = 1632
divide 1632 by 52 weeks= 31 units per week
If 31 units sell each week divide that number into the number of active listings 31 divided by 610 = 20 weeks is the absorption rate or 5 months of inventory in North Port.

Port Charlotte
# of listings in Port Charlotte= 1030 active listings
# of listings sold from Aug 22-Sept 22: 124
# of listings sold from July 22-Aug 22: 164
# of listings sold from June 22-July 22: 134
# of listings sold from May 22-June 22: 158
# of listings sold from Apr 22-May 22: 219
# of listings sold from Mar 22-Apr 22: 166
965 homes sold in the last six months in PC. Average number of homes sold per month over the last 6 months in PC: 161 homes
#sold (161 homes) X 12 (months) = 1932
divide 1932 by 52 weeks= 37 units per week
If 37 units sell each week divide that number into the number of active listings 37 divided by 1030 = 28 weeks is the absorption rate or about 7 months worth of inventory in Port Charlotte.

Punta Gorda-33982, 33955, 33950 (not including Deep Creek)
# of listings in Punta Gorda= 529 active listings
# of listings sold from Aug 22-Sept 22: 38
# of listings sold from July 22-Aug 22: 44
# of listings sold from June 22-July 22: 49
# of listings sold from May 22-June 22: 47
# of listings sold from Apr 22-May 22: 41
# of listings sold from Mar 22-Apr 22: 37
256 homes sold in the last six months in PG. Average number of homes sold per month over the last 6 months in PG: 43 homes
#sold (43 homes) X 12 (months) = 516
divide 516 by 52 weeks= 10 units per week
If 10 units sell each week divide that number into the number of active listings 10 divided by 529 = 52 weeks of inventory or a years worth of inventory in Punta Gorda.

Venice
# of listings in Venice= 624 active listings
# of listings sold from Aug 22-Sept 22: 57
# of listings sold from July 22-Aug 22: 73
# of listings sold from June 22-July 22: 96
# of listings sold from May 22-June 22: 98
# of listings sold from Apr 22-May 22: 101
# of listings sold from Mar 22-Apr 22: 80
505 homes sold in the last six months in Venice. Average number of homes sold per month over the last 6 months in Venice: 84 homes
#sold (84 homes) X 12 (months) = 1008
divide 1008 by 52 weeks= 19 units per week
If 19 units sell each week divide that number into the number of active listings 19 divided by 960 = 51 weeks of inventory or a little less than a years worth of inventory in Venice.

Sarasota
# of listings in Sarasota= 2020 active listings
# of listings sold from Aug 22-Sept 22: 184
# of listings sold from July 22-Aug 22: 251
# of listings sold from June 22-July 22: 249
# of listings sold from May 22-June 22: 278
# of listings sold from Apr 22-May 22: 266
# of listings sold from Mar 22-Apr 22: 254
1482 homes sold in the last six months in Sarasota. Average number of homes sold per month over the last 6 months in Sarasota: 247 homes
#sold (247 homes) X 12 (months) = 2964
divide 2964 by 52 weeks= 57 units per week
If 57 units sell each week divide that number into the number of active listings 57 divided by 2964 = 52 weeks of inventory or a years worth of inventory in Sarasota.

Osprey
# of listings in Osprey= 148 active listings
# of listings sold from Aug 22-Sept 22: 7
# of listings sold from July 22-Aug 22: 12
# of listings sold from June 22-July 22: 22
# of listings sold from May 22-June 22: 10
# of listings sold from Apr 22-May 22: 12
# of listings sold from Mar 22-Apr 22: 10
74 homes sold in the last six months in Osprey. Average number of homes sold per month over the last 6 months in Osprey: 12 homes
#sold (12 homes) X 12 (months) = 144
divide 144 by 52 weeks= 3 units per week
If 3 units sell each week divide that number into the number of active listings 3 divided by 148 = 49 weeks of inventory or a little less than a years worth of inventory in Osprey.

Englewood
# of listings in Englewood= 457 active listings
# of listings sold from Aug 22-Sept 22: 47
# of listings sold from July 22-Aug 22: 40
# of listings sold from June 22-July 22: 42
# of listings sold from May 22-June 22: 56
# of listings sold from Apr 22-May 22: 50
# of listings sold from Mar 22-Apr 22: 42
277 homes sold in the last six months in Englewood. Average number of homes sold per month over the last 6 months in Englewood: 46 homes
#sold (46 homes) X 12 (months) = 552
divide 552 by 52 weeks= 11 units per week
If 11 units sell each week divide that number into the number of active listings 11 divided by 552 = 50 weeks of inventory or a little less than a years worth of inventory in Englewood.

And just for the heck of it I’ll throw Bradenton in… Looking at the sales in Bradenton, it appears there has been almost no change in the last six months. They've been clipping along at the same rate.

Bradenton
# of listings in Bradenton= 1420 active listings
# of listings sold from Aug 22-Sept 22: 145
# of listings sold from July 22-Aug 22: 152
# of listings sold from June 22-July 22: 158
# of listings sold from May 22-June 22: 156
# of listings sold from Apr 22-May 22: 159
# of listings sold from Mar 22-Apr 22: 151
921 homes sold in the last six months in Bradenton. Average number of homes sold per month over the last 6 months in Bradenton: 154 homes
#sold (154 homes) X 12 (months) = 1848
divide 1848 by 52 weeks= 36 units per week
If 36 units sell each week divide that number into the number of active listings 36 divided by 1420 = 39 weeks of inventory or a more than 9 months worth of inventory in Bradenton.

[Big House]

Wow! Good job SoFLGal. It looks like PGI has gone from 3 years of inventory to 1 year. That is pretty impressive. I think that a big wave of foreclosures is going to be released soon, so your tracking system is going to prove really interesting! Great Job!

[mikey2]

Last night Channel 6 ran a story on foreclosed and abandoned homes in North Port. They estimated that there are about 1000 homes and keeping the maintenance up on them is a problem.

I guess many of these homes are not on the market yet? Are the banks just holding them at this point?

Maybe SoFlGal and others can shed some light on this issue.

Mikey