Absorption Rate (Miami, Sarasota, Century: 2010, foreclosed, mortgages)

[po14015]

There are a TON of banks that your list doesn't include and a whole bunch of smaller ones. Like Aurora Loan, MONEY CONSULTANTS INC, and I could go on and on. Each area has certain lenders with larger amounts than others. 5 houses here, 7 there, and it all adds up. Plus you will see huge increase in foreclosures. Do honestly think that there is less than 200 foreclosures in Charlotte County?

I am not familiar Charlotte County. But in the end it is the poor neighbor to the south of Sarasota. Great area, beautiful, and really nice people, BUT there is little economy. And if you didn't buy your house before 1996, you are upside down.

Stop believing the bumpersticker HOUSES=JOBS. That has been and always will be garbage. The truth is JOBS=HOUSES. And this is the reason people will be moving away from this area.

The only people buying are investors who soon will be broke unless if they are experienced "pros". And even some of the "pros" will lose it all.

Just my 2 cents.

[SoFLGal]

Here's some more stats. Gotta run out for a little while but I'll post some more stats when I return:

North Port single family homes (not including condos, townhomes, villas, mobiles, etc)
# of listings in North Port= 812 active listings
Average sales price from Mar 22-Apr 22, 09: $107,079
Average sales price from Feb 22-Mar 22, 09: $96,910
Average sales price from Jan 22-Feb 22, 09: $104,073
Average sales price from Dec 22-Jan 22, 09: $103,059
Average sales price from Nov 22-Dec 22, 08-09: $109,273
Average sales price from Oct 22-Nov 22, 08: $105,360
Average sales price from Sept 22-Oct 22, 08: $119,964
Average sales price from Aug 22-Sep 22, 08: $138,443
Average sales price from July 22-Aug 22, 08: $125,454
Average sales price from June 22-July 22, 2008: $139,905
Average sales price from May 22-June 22, 08: $143,383
Average sales price from Apr 22-May 22, 08: $153,044
Average sales price from Mar 22-Apr 22, 08: $156,736
Average sales price from Feb 22-Mar 22, 08: $141,438
Average sales price from Jan 22-Feb 22, 08: $158,598
Average sales price from Dec 22-Jan 22, 07-08: $143,964
Average sales price from Nov 22-Dec 22, 07: $161,723
Average sales price from Oct 22-Nov 22, 07: $190,509
Average sales price from Sept 22-Oct 22, 07: $210,089
Average sales price from Aug 22-Sep 22, 07: $195,451
Average sales price from July 22-Aug 22, 07: $195,521
Average sales price from June 22-July 22, 2007: $187,743
Average sales price from May 22-June 22, 07: $188,247
Average sales price from Apr 22-May 22, 07: $212,052



Port Charlotte single family homes (not including condos, townhomes, villas, mobiles, etc)
# of listings in Port Charlotte= 1298 active listings
Average sales price from Mar 22-Apr 22, 09: $105,701
Average sales price from Feb 22-Mar 22, 09: $106,655
Average sales price from Jan 22-Feb 22, 09: $114,447
Average sales price from Dec 22-Jan 22, 09: $110, 446
Average sales price from Nov 22-Dec 22, 08-09: $127,082
Average sales price from Oct 22-Nov 22, 08: $101,338
Average sales price from Sept 22-Oct 22, 08: $119,896
Average sales price from Aug 22-Sep 22, 08: $137,216
Average sales price from July 22-Aug 22, 08: $168,558
Average sales price from June 22-July 22, 2008: $147,192
Average sales price from May 22-June 22, 08: $142,663
Average sales price from Apr 22-May 22, 08: $149,557
Average sales price from Mar 22-Apr 22, 08: $159,709
Average sales price from Feb 22-Mar 22, 08: $152,456
Average sales price from Jan 22-Feb 22, 08: $169,182
Average sales price from Dec 22-Jan 22, 07-08: $199,274
Average sales price from Nov 22-Dec 22, 07: $177,359
Average sales price from Oct 22-Nov 22, 07: $194,759
Average sales price from Sept 22-Oct 22, 07: $200,675
Average sales price from Aug 22-Sep 22, 07: $167,533
Average sales price from July 22-Aug 22, 07: $194,172
Average sales price from June 22-July 22, 2007: $206,505
Average sales price from May 22-June 22, 07: $244,976
Average sales price from Apr 22-May 22, 07: $205,655

[SoFLGal]

Originally Posted by po14015

There are a TON of banks that your list doesn't include and a whole bunch of smaller ones. Like Aurora Loan, MONEY CONSULTANTS INC, and I could go on and on. Each area has certain lenders with larger amounts than others. 5 houses here, 7 there, and it all adds up. Plus you will see huge increase in foreclosures. Do honestly think that there is less than 200 foreclosures in Charlotte County?

I am not familiar Charlotte County. But in the end it is the poor neighbor to the south of Sarasota. Great area, beautiful, and really nice people, BUT there is little economy. And if you didn't buy your house before 1996, you are upside down.

Stop believing the bumpersticker HOUSES=JOBS. That has been and always will be garbage. The truth is JOBS=HOUSES. And this is the reason people will be moving away from this area.

The only people buying are investors who soon will be broke unless if they are experienced "pros". And even some of the "pros" will lose it all.

Just my 2 cents.

There's 8 properties listed for Aurora in Charlotte county. I agree there are a lot of little banks out there that own properties but I listed the big ones above that have the majority of property. No, don't think there are only 200 properties in Charlotte county that are bank owned. I would say that number is probably doubled, if you add in all the little guys.

I certainly wouldn't consider Charlotte county "the poor neighbor to the south of Sarasota". Charlotte county has some pretty big and expensive homes. As far as the economy, I think it is lacking throughout the US and Charlotte county is no exception.

You are correct in saying that if people bought after 1996 they are probably upside down. I'm not believing the houses=jobs bumper stickers, just posting some stats here

Oh, and the majority of our buyers are 2nd home buyers coming from up north and 1st time home buyers with a few investors sprinkled in here and there.

Gotta run for a bit!

[SoFLGal]

Here's selling price stats for Sarasota and Venice and an artilce in the Herald Tribune. Although I do not agree with all the facts I do think there is some truth to what they are saying.

Housing prices rise in Sarasota-Bradenton | HeraldTribune.com | Sarasota Florida | Southwest Florida's Information Leader

Sarasota single family homes (not including condos, townhomes, villas, mobiles, etc)
# of listings in Sarasota= 2655 active listings
Average sales price from Mar 22-Apr 22, 09: $242,822
Average sales price from Feb 22-Mar 22, 09: $228,552
Average sales price from Jan 22-Feb 22, 09: $229,398
Average sales price from Dec 22-Jan 22, 09: $271,393
Average sales price from Nov 22-Dec 22, 08-09: $274,550
Average sales price from Oct 22-Nov 22, 08: $326,553
Average sales price from Sept 22-Oct 22, 08: $297,666
Average sales price from Aug 22-Sep 22, 08: $349,506
Average sales price from July 22-Aug 22, 08: $334,864
Average sales price from June 22-July 22, 2008: $354,384
Average sales price from May 22-June 22, 08: $371,779
Average sales price from Apr 22-May 22, 08: $435,298
Average sales price from Mar 22-Apr 22, 08: $391,589
Average sales price from Feb 22-Mar 22, 08: $416,397
Average sales price from Jan 22-Feb 22, 08: $369,032
Average sales price from Dec 22-Jan 22, 07-08: $541,084
Average sales price from Nov 22-Dec 22, 07: $394,842
Average sales price from Oct 22-Nov 22, 07: $486,825
Average sales price from Sept 22-Oct 22, 07: $432,588
Average sales price from Aug 22-Sep 22, 07: $450,404
Average sales price from July 22-Aug 22, 07: $549,248
Average sales price from June 22-July 22, 2007: $480,717
Average sales price from May 22-June 22, 07: $505,703
Average sales price from Apr 22-May 22, 07: $456,741


Venice single family homes (not including condos, townhomes, villas, mobiles, etc)
# of listings in Venice= 819 active listings
Average sales price from Mar 22-Apr 22, 09: $210,970
Average sales price from Feb 22-Mar 22, 09: $185,183
Average sales price from Jan 22-Feb 22, 09: $153,107
Average sales price from Dec 22-Jan 22, 09: $186,696
Average sales price from Nov 22-Dec 22, 08-09: $207,757
Average sales price from Oct 22-Nov 22, 08: $177,591
Average sales price from Sept 22-Oct 22, 08: $234,200
Average sales price from Aug 22-Sep 22, 08: $229,265
Average sales price from July 22-Aug 22, 08: $229,092
Average sales price from June 22-July 22, 2008: $231,389
Average sales price from May 22-June 22, 08: $278,192
Average sales price from Apr 22-May 22, 08: $266,543
Average sales price from Mar 22-Apr 22, 08: $262,219
Average sales price from Feb 22-Mar 22, 08: $246,443
Average sales price from Jan 22-Feb 22, 08: $299,846
Average sales price from Dec 22-Jan 22, 07-08: $306,532
Average sales price from Nov 22-Dec 22, 07: $260,673
Average sales price from Oct 22-Nov 22, 07: $263,123
Average sales price from Sept 22-Oct 22, 07: $248,156
Average sales price from Aug 22-Sep 22, 07: $243,860
Average sales price from July 22-Aug 22, 07: $270,239

[po14015]

Any real estate agent who does charts/graphs is 1 out of 10 (and that may be nice as it could be closer to 1 out of 20). I can't recommend SoFLGal since I don't know her, but you have at least done research. And if I was in your area, I would have you at the top of a list to talk to.

And the good thing about a down market is that a lot of these people who became real estate agents will have to go get a real job (if they can find one). Many never did anything but get a check. A good real estate agent is priceless.

But I can't stress it enough. The only people who should be buying right now are people buying a primary home. Otherwise, all these investors/2nd home owners will be taken to the cleaners.

A lot of bad economic events are going to happen over the next 6 months. Like when the DOW hits a new year low.

Here is a video to watch from 60 minutes about Option Adj. Rates, Alt-A, Subprime, Prime, and Agency loans and default.

YouTube - Second Financial Economic Crash Coming - Huge & Soon

Here is the Credit Suisse Chart from the video:


My 2 cents.

[mikey2]

I don't disagree with anything posted...very interesting really.

The thing that impresses me is that North Port, in particular, is eating away at a lot of the excess inventory of homes (albeit at low prices). With virtually no new housing starts, I see this as one positive thing among many other negatives.

Nationally, the picture is really bleak....among other things already mentioned, without jobs (that pay a living wage) the whole greed-based, corrupt system will crumble anyway.

Mikey

[SoFLGal]

Yeah, I saw that piece and thought they did an excellent job on the story. The graph shows what I was talking about in reference to the Alt-A loans adjusting for the first time in May. Most of the ATL-A loans were A paper borrowers and many of them were higher priced homes.

I'm curious to see if they are correct on their predictions. There are many stories that I have saved and go back and reference that were totally off base. I can tell you, being on the front lines and dealing directly with the banks that not much is coming on the market right now and what does come on gets sold immediately. But my question is-is this the calm before the storm? Guess we'll just have to wait and see.

Chris Thornberg over at Beacon economics has some excellent articles and commentary as well. He pretty much says the same thing as the info you posted above.

I think this thread is a really good one for anyone to read that's looking to buy a home. It gives national predictions as well as some local data. po14015, I've enjoyed discussing this with you. It's nice when two people can debate an issue and keep things friendly

[SoFLGal]

Originally Posted by mikey2

I don't disagree with anything posted...very interesting really.

The thing that impresses me is that North Port, in particular, is eating away at a lot of the excess inventory of homes (albeit at low prices). With virtually no new housing starts, I see this as one positive thing among many other negatives.

Nationally, the picture is really bleak....among other things already mentioned, without jobs (that pay a living wage) the whole greed-based, corrupt system will crumble anyway.

Mikey

I found that interesting as well, Mikey. We're down to 985 homes this morning. The amount of homes on the market is dropping very quickly in North Port and there are very few homes coming on to replace them. I wonder how the "next wave" will effect North Port. I don't think there were very many ALT-A loans written in NP. From what I remember they were mostly subprime loans and the majority/many of them have already failed, if they were going to.

I think there was one building permit last month in North Port compared with the 250-300 monthly permits being issued during the housing boom.

[FLBob]

The payment option ARM (POA) does look like it could bring another wave of defaults. If people have been paying at the minimum rates then the recasts could really be a blow to their cash flow.

The information that I've seen suggests that over 50% of people with POA mortgages have been paying at the lower allowable monthly payment. So the recast will cause the monthly payment to become higher.

The people that I know that selected this type of mortgage offering have been paying over the minimal required payment, adding extra each month to reduce the principle faster. So that the recast would actually lower their monthly payments. I'm sure this is not the typical behavior, but is does suggest that the worst case scenario is less likely.

[SoFLGal]

This recent article in BuisnessWeek is pretty interesting:
How Toxic are the Worst of the Mortgages? - BusinessWeek

DSNews usually has some a pretty good pulse on the mortgage crisis as well:
DSNews.Com Default Servicing In Print and Online - Formerly REO Magazine