Absorption Rate (Sarasota: short sales, real estate market, condo)

[WAwannabe]

Oh great! I mean, it is great but now I'm ready to buy prices go up and bid wars start...

[SoFLGal]

Originally Posted by WAwannabe

Oh great! I mean, it is great but now I'm ready to buy prices go up and bid wars start...

I know it's kind of crappy, isn't it? It seems even the dumpy homes are getting multiple offers. The inventory is going down really quickly as well. I'm not sure if there will be another wave of foreclosures coming on or what's going to happen.

April 24th there were 812 homes in North Port now there are 762 homes. So in North Port in the past 13 days the inventory has dropped by 50 homes.

Port Charlotte there were 1298 homes on Apr 24th now there are 1189 homes for sale. A decrease of 109 homes on the market in Port Charlotte in the last 13 days.

Venice there were 819 homes on April 24th now there are 774 homes. A decrease in inventory by 45 homes in 13 days.

Many of the homes are going for above full price. I have had a few buyers lately offering full price, all cash and quick close and they lost out. It seems as though many people aren't getting what's going on here until they miss out on 3 or 4 homes.

Looking at the "hot sheet" for today that shows me the new listings, pendings, solds, etc. For Sarasota/Charlotte counties there were 24 new listings, 46 pending and 20 sold so far today (this will change as the day goes on). The news can say this and that but I'm going on what is actually happening right here in our town. Right now the pending sales each day are more than double what's coming on the market and many/most of the homes are selling for over list price.

I don't know how long it's going to continue like this but I'm going by the figures and facts straight from the MLS.

[WAwannabe]

Bugger! - I mean Darn!

[FLBob]

And the other point that people are missing is that the quantitative easing being done by the FED (buying treasuries) brought the interest rates down to the 4.5% level but as good economic news continues to hit the airwaves, people that bought treasuries as a safe haven are selling and going back into equities. The result, the average 30 fixed rate mortgage is now over 5%.

[WAwannabe]

I'm getting so dispondant.. Every house I look at that I like is a short sale.. and everything else is out of Sarasota county. We may have to change what we're looking for..

[Big House]

Originally Posted by WAwannabe

I'm getting so dispondant.. Every house I look at that I like is a short sale.. and everything else is out of Sarasota county. We may have to change what we're looking for..

Run! Don't Walk! to the bank and get your 'Pre-Approval' letter! Or Better Yet! Bring a wad of cash to the table! And, don't forget to bring that jug of change you have in the closet too! LOL Just Kidding! But! things are heating up a bit. I think the stabilization in the housing market is artificially held high by the government slowing down the release of all the foreclosures that should be brought to market. They are trickling them in, and releasing them slowly so the housing values are held higher than they would if all the foreclosures are released at once. But artificial or not, if that is the plan and they stick to it, I think it will work.

Good Luck on that purchase! Make sure you drive safely, er uh are driven safely next time you start looking!

[po14015]

I still think most of you are missing the point. Stop watching T.V. and cancel your newspaper.

Here is the Clerk of Court in Manatee County
https://www.manatee.realforeclose.com/index.cfm

Number of Foreclosure Auctions:
March 09: 103
April 09: 97
May 09: 140
As of now for June 09: 75 (which is really only the first 57 in the first week as most of the month is wide open and will break May's number)

Some days have 25 houses up for sale!!!!

I have been on streets that have 7 out of 10 houses at some point in foreclosure. Go walk 3 neighborhoods and look for the white stickers/box on the door.

And the biggest reason why house prices in this area will drop another 30%-50% is that someone in the end is supposed to live in them. You can not add over 2 or 3 distress houses a day (counting weekends) and not expect values to drop. People can't/won't find jobs. Gov't jobs (teachers, police, etc.) are going, going, gone. Private sector can barely make it.

And don't get me started on all the "FOR LEASE" signs in commercial Real Estate. When that bursts, watch the bank balance sheets. (Oh wait, the banks don't actually have to live in reality because of the new accounting rules change for mark-to-fantasty. For those who don't know what I am talking about on this, it allows the banks to claim the 2005 value of a home instead of what it is now.)

And what your TV and newspaper won't tell you is that the big banks are driving up their share price with TARP money so the insiders can sell at high prices. Now they won't have to give out large bonuses because most people don't understand that side of the game.

Just my 2 cents.

[SoFLGal]

You do make some good points! But like I said, we are seeing double the amount of homes go pending each day then what is coming on the market. As fast as the homes go on the market they are going pending with multiple offers and in many cases above list price. I'm not trying to say we are out of the woods or things are all rosy now. I'm just reporting what I am seeing.

I think the white stickers on the doors depends on what neighborhood you are walking. For instance, if you walk any neighborhood in Palmer Ranch you're not going to see any. Out of the hundred or so homes for sale there is only one foreclosure. If the neighborhood has a lot of rentals or many investors that purchased homes, then yes you'll probably see many white stickers.

I totally agree with you on your perception of the job market. There was just a story in the paper yesterday that talked about teacher cuts, etc. How are these people that just lot their jobs going to pay their mortgage? What's going to happen to them? Will they stay in the area and find another job? Will they move?

We are seeing a lot of retirees buying that don't need a job but we are also seeing a lot of first time home buyers. Some investors, here and there if the price is right. But many of them are getting out bid by end users (2nd home buyers, 1st time home buyers, etc).

You do pose some good questions though...

[po14015]

I am not as familiar with the areas south of Manatee, but you are right about certain areas. The variables are when they were bought, who bought them, and why they bought them. In the next year, the areas that seemed like they have done okay, won't be okay. We have similiar areas here in Manatee. The island is an example.

At least in Manatee County, the people buying are spec buyers. They are either going to flip or rent it. Renting will turn into flipping because people won't be able to pay rent. This goes back to jobs. No job=No money.

Retirees are also not a good sign. Pension funds will soon be another bailout. Most people will end up getting very little of what was promised to them. Caterpillar, Boeing, the whole auto industry, etc. Soc. Sec. and Medicare will be an issue in just two years now. One of the assumptions is that the US will always have a positive GDP. No models (city, state, federal) take into account a negative GDP. This is why they are all having budget problems and why taxes will go up. The bank stress tests don't even take into account a large decline in GDP. And that is one of the reasons it is a joke.

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[WAwannabe]

Originally Posted by Big House

Run! Don't Walk! to the bank and get your 'Pre-Approval' letter! Or Better Yet! Bring a wad of cash to the table! And, don't forget to bring that jug of change you have in the closet too! LOL Just Kidding! But! things are heating up a bit. I think the stabilization in the housing market is artificially held high by the government slowing down the release of all the foreclosures that should be brought to market. They are trickling them in, and releasing them slowly so the housing values are held higher than they would if all the foreclosures are released at once. But artificial or not, if that is the plan and they stick to it, I think it will work.

Good Luck on that purchase! Make sure you drive safely, er uh are driven safely next time you start looking!

Yeah - I need to bring my change jar for bail money if Roxanne is driving us..