Absorption Rate (Sarasota, Bradenton, Port Charlotte: insurance, credit card, lenders)

[Big House]

Originally Posted by WAwannabe

Yeah - I need to bring my change jar for bail money if Roxanne is driving us..

Ooooooh! Good one! LOL
I hope she doesn't see this until AFTER, she gets you a good deal though!

I won't tell her you said that!

SOFLGAL! Where are YOU! ! j/k

Good Luck on your house hunting! When are you coming back to FLA?

[JohnVosilla]

Originally Posted by SoFLGal

You do make some good points! But like I said, we are seeing double the amount of homes go pending each day then what is coming on the market. As fast as the homes go on the market they are going pending with multiple offers and in many cases above list price. I'm not trying to say we are out of the woods or things are all rosy now. I'm just reporting what I am seeing.

I think the white stickers on the doors depends on what neighborhood you are walking. For instance, if you walk any neighborhood in Palmer Ranch you're not going to see any. Out of the hundred or so homes for sale there is only one foreclosure. If the neighborhood has a lot of rentals or many investors that purchased homes, then yes you'll probably see many white stickers.

I totally agree with you on your perception of the job market. There was just a story in the paper yesterday that talked about teacher cuts, etc. How are these people that just lot their jobs going to pay their mortgage? What's going to happen to them? Will they stay in the area and find another job? Will they move?

We are seeing a lot of retirees buying that don't need a job but we are also seeing a lot of first time home buyers. Some investors, here and there if the price is right. But many of them are getting out bid by end users (2nd home buyers, 1st time home buyers, etc).

You do pose some good questions though...

I think you are both right... You have another 18-36 months of unwinding the foreclosure mess and putting homes in stronger hands.. In the meantime lots of turnover. The big issues down the road will be interest rates and stagflation once we recover. Look at history at the recovery coming out of 1973-74 and 1990-91 and this IMHO will be a hyrbid of the two..

[SoFLGal]

Originally Posted by WAwannabe

Yeah - I need to bring my change jar for bail money if Roxanne is driving us..

Haha! You're pretty funny Speaking of change, that's one thing I forgot to mention. Almost everyone of the homes we are closing in the next month are two are cash buyers. Has everyone been stashing their cash under their mattress for the last year or so?

po14015 like I said before, you do come up with some good data and facts, which I don't dispute. I just wonder how much of it will effect this area??

[SoFLGal]

Here's another article in today's paper. The article seems to think that we might not be at the bottom. Painful trip to bottom of market | HeraldTribune.com | Sarasota Florida | Southwest Florida's Information Leader

[gypsychic]

Kind of confused about that article. That was written by just a Herald Columnist, not a real estate guru - also, the pic that accompanies the article is of the brand new Citrus Square condos and commercial, which is doing very well, they just had a couple articles about it's quality and success. *shrug* Who knows what will happen. I have no doubt there are some areas which may slide more, but it seems to have bottomed in my neighborhood, everything in the lower price points has sold, even a few of the upper end ones have sold recently.

[po14015]

The Federal Reserve has already started to put pressure down the chain to make this happen. Destroy houses which will take inventory off and also allow construction to start back up.

And this will utterly fail.
Bank Demolition of Homes



YouTube - VICTORVILLE MODEL HOMES DEMOLISHED - SHOCKING VIDEO: Part 5

[po14015]

I really hate the stat that says there are less houses on the MLS.
Of course.

Reason:
"32.8 percent of all Sarasota-area homeowners now have negative equity"

Most people won't even bother. They see the banks trying to sell at half what they owe. And even they aren't having huge luck. They don't want the headache of short sales. They will try to get by or head into foreclosure.

And as prices continue to decline, more people will be taken down into negative equity.

And most people don't even understand the TRIPLE WHAMMY that will happen to real estate. Prices will go down another 30%-50% in dollar terms, but the dollar itself will depreciate. And to add insult to injury, property taxes will go up.

My 2 cents.

[SoFLGal]

This is exactly what we're seeing-Multiple offers on nearly everything. The article also notes the possibility of another wave of foreclosures:
How to get real estate moving | HeraldTribune.com | Sarasota Florida | Southwest Florida's Information Leader

[loves2read]

the writer of that article quotes ZILLOW as a source of info on housing market--get real...
so I would not put too much faith in a knowledgeable purview of the real estate market...

even if I happen to agree with what the tenor of the article says--I don't think that the bottom has been reached and certain areas are going to have almost an indefinite softening of the market because of changes coming in a re-shaped tax plan and capital gains tax situation--some people are even considering legislating for a reduction in the mortgage/income tax deduction which would make a hugh difference to people in certain tax brackets...
I think some people are much more afraid of rise in inflation and interest rates with it -- so they are trying to get into some cheap financing while they can --whether the house price is as low as it might go is not as much a factor as latching on to an interest rate under 5%--they are thinking long term...

whether you are in negative equity or not does not really matter if you have a fixed rate mortgage and current income--
we went through something like this in the 80s in the DFW area when the collapse in oil industry happened...housing market was stagnant, lots of foreclosures--but if you were not trying to sell your house--it was just sort of a non-event...but if you try to refinance and can't get an appraisal to satisfy your mortgage balance--then you are in trouble...

[loves2read]

Bank demolishes 16 brand-new Victorville homes - Riverside CA Inland Empire Southern California News
little more balanced view of those houses being taken down--the bank that took over the development from the bankrupt builder said it would take 1M dollars to get the houses ready for sale--most had been vandalized significantly in the 18 months they were vacant--the city was fining the bank daily for the unsafe conditions--they had been gutten by vandals so they were not in "move in condition" by anyone's imagination and finishing/leaving those 14 homes in the midst of an unfinished development (because the bank has no buyer on tap and will not go forward with doing the subdivision on its own) they would never sell...
I don't know why people are so adverse to what seems to me to be a rational decision--if the bank had been rational in the first place it would never have lent the money for another HOUSING DEVELOPMENT in California...this is nothing like razing foreclosed homes in developed communities which no bank is dong or the Fed is advocating...