Absorption Rate (Lakeland, Sarasota: sale, credit, first time home buyer)

[MrTudo]

Multiple offers? They had a saying in the car business, there's an ass for every seat.

They were standing in line to buy during the bubble too.

There are NO positive economic fundamentals at this time. Even with the absolutely astounding "stimulus" consisting of TRILLIONS of dollare, is showing very little by way of "stimulating" anything other than lining the pockets of politicians , top executives and bankers.

Unemployment continues it's upward trajectory and with the collapse of what was left of manufacturing in the mid west which WAS the backbone a large part of the economy, what is there to take up the slack? More printing of the dollars for extended extended extended extended unemployment checks while some of us are killing ourselves working 14-16 hour days? Please.

Eventually the tax bill WILL be increased to start making payments on these "stimulus" packages. At this time, the government has to borrow 46 cents for every dollar it spends. How long do you think that can go on for and please explain to me how exactly this is a good thing for the future of the republic?

[SoFLGal]

Originally Posted by MrTudo

Multiple offers? They had a saying in the car business, there's an ass for every seat.

They were standing in line to buy during the bubble too.

There are NO positive economic fundamentals at this time. Even with the absolutely astounding "stimulus" consisting of TRILLIONS of dollare, is showing very little by way of "stimulating" anything other than lining the pockets of politicians , top executives and bankers.

Unemployment continues it's upward trajectory and with the collapse of what was left of manufacturing in the mid west which WAS the backbone a large part of the economy, what is there to take up the slack? More printing of the dollars for extended extended extended extended unemployment checks while some of us are killing ourselves working 14-16 hour days? Please.

Eventually the tax bill WILL be increased to start making payments on these "stimulus" packages. At this time, the government has to borrow 46 cents for every dollar it spends. How long do you think that can go on for and please explain to me how exactly this is a good thing for the future of the republic?

If you're referring to me. I'm not saying it's good, bad or indifferent. I'm just writing what's currently going on right now. Just supplying information. I don't know if will continue like this, if I had to guess I would say probably not if you are to believe all of the reports, but this is what's happening right now.

Every Realtor I've spoken with lately from Bradenton to Punta Gorda is noticing the same thing. Multiple offers, many/most offers above list price, fewer homes coming on the market and many more selling.

Again, just pointing out the facts right now, in this area, today. Will it be different in six months? probably.

[po14015]

"this is nothing like razing foreclosed homes in developed communities which no bank is dong or the Fed is advocating..."

Really, how do you know????? I love people who think they have a position of authority. We will see.

And for the stupid argument of "You haven't lost money until you sell" about negative equity. It does matter and the only people who say it doesn't are people who are upside down whether it is houses, stocks, etc. This is like living in fantasy land. People who bought Nasdaq 5,000 still haven't lost money if they haven't sold? You should be a broker.

It is much easier to renegotiate an interest rate than a purchase price. So people who are buying because it is cheap money will lose money because they are overpaying. Units are supposed to be lived in. Taxes, insurance, maintenance, etc will destroy an investment in real estate.

Again here are the facts:
Unemployment: 8.9%
Housing Starts Down
Auto Sales Down
Auto Companies on the ropes
Consumer Credit Way Down
Big Banks must raise $75 Billion in 6 months
Large amount of commercial space

Sure we are on are way up.

My 2 cents.

[po14015]

Banks Brace for Credit Card Write-Offs

Banks-Brace-for-Credit-Card-Write-Offs: Personal Finance News from Yahoo! Finance

"Every major credit card issuer has been approving fewer new applicants, reining in credit lines and canceling unused accounts. And Meredith A. Whitney, a prominent banking analyst, expects credit card lenders to cut the lines of credit they extend to borrowers by a total of $2.7 trillion through 2010. That is equivalent to a 57 percent reduction in the credit they made available two years ago at the height of the boom."

How do you think the malls are going to do?

My 2 cents.

[MrTudo]

Originally Posted by SoFLGal

If you're referring to me. I'm not saying it's good, bad or indifferent. I'm just writing what's currently going on right now. Just supplying information. I don't know if will continue like this, if I had to guess I would say probably not if you are to believe all of the reports, but this is what's happening right now.

Every Realtor I've spoken with lately from Bradenton to Punta Gorda is noticing the same thing. Multiple offers, many/most offers above list price, fewer homes coming on the market and many more selling.

Again, just pointing out the facts right now, in this area, today. Will it be different in six months? probably.

No, I was referring to exactly that, not you personally.

[Big House]

Originally Posted by SoFLGal

If you're referring to me. I'm not saying it's good, bad or indifferent. I'm just writing what's currently going on right now. Just supplying information. I don't know if will continue like this, if I had to guess I would say probably not if you are to believe all of the reports, but this is what's happening right now.

Every Realtor I've spoken with lately from Bradenton to Punta Gorda is noticing the same thing. Multiple offers, many/most offers above list price, fewer homes coming on the market and many more selling.

Again, just pointing out the facts right now, in this area, today. Will it be different in six months? probably.

I don't think that MrTudo was refering to you SoFLGal. I think he was referring to the people that are causing the pricing in houses to rise when there seems not reason that should happen. I think investors and buyers believe that the market has hit bottom, that the availbility of houses at great prices are becoming harder to find, and that prices for homes will continue to rise.

Many people do not believe this is so, infact I think that the demand for houses is rising because the government has artificially held up the release of many properties that should already have gone to foreclosure and been released to the market. If this had happened, people would not be bidding up the price, they'd be offering less, or waiting for the prices of housing to drop because of the availability in the market of a flood of foreclosed homes. But these foreclosed homes, due to ARMs and investment properties, and vacant homes, have been held up by moratoriums, and other government delays in an effort to stabilize the market. Once these are released, property values will drop again (unless the govenment continues to delay the release). I heard today that some of the banks and lenders may actually modify their moratoriums to provide for some of those properties to be released in the next 30-60 days.

Only time will tell what policies will impact these releases. With the discomfort in the employment sector, and many other troublesome financial aspects being discussed today, such as social security and medicare troubles ahead, people are going to be more careful about their spending. It will be interesting times ahead - that's for sure.

SoFLGal - That said, I believe all the the information you have posted is accurate, and accurately presented for what it is. These are all facts, and you have done a lot of research to present what is happening in the market. People are offering more than the deflated asking price on many homes in the SWFL area. It is understandable since the housing prices are so deflated to begin with in some cases 50 - 60% less than what the homes last sold for. That is a huge deflation, which places many homes in the market at below cost, and far below the historic curve of where the real value should be given historic numbers. It is interesting that people are making all cash offers, which ties up a valuable nest egg of security in the event that the market does worsen. That money will be tied up for years, and other opportunities for investment lost. - just food for though. You have once again done a great job!

[SoFLGal]

I'm not seeing near as many foreclosures going on in past months as this article indicates. It also states that many of them are going under contract as soon as they are listed and that there are bidding wars happening. I am seeing this:

Foreclosure rate increases locally | HeraldTribune.com | Sarasota Florida | Southwest Florida's Information Leader

Heres' another article in today's paper talking about the home prices sliding. I haven't seen this for the two months.
Home prices continue to slide | HeraldTribune.com | Sarasota Florida | Southwest Florida's Information Leader

I have noticed this week more leveling off in the stats. It seems as many homes that are coming on, are coming off. It's about even this week. For the last several months there has been way more going on the market then coming off. Maybe this is another wave of foreclosures coming in.

[Big House]

Originally Posted by SoFLGal

I'm not seeing near as many foreclosures going on in past months as this article indicates. It also states that many of them are going under contract as soon as they are listed and that there are bidding wars happening. I am seeing this:

Foreclosure rate increases locally | HeraldTribune.com | Sarasota Florida | Southwest Florida's Information Leader

Heres' another article in today's paper talking about the home prices sliding. I haven't seen this for the two months.
Home prices continue to slide | HeraldTribune.com | Sarasota Florida | Southwest Florida's Information Leader

I have noticed this week more leveling off in the stats. It seems as many homes that are coming on, are coming off. It's about even this week. For the last several months there has been way more going on the market then coming off. Maybe this is another wave of foreclosures coming in.

SoFLGal, The first article sounds like they have been listening carefully to what I've been talking to you about.

[po14015]

"The 3,101 filings in April for Manatee, Sarasota and Charlotte counties represented a 40 percent increase from 2,147 in March. Filings rose 62 percent in Manatee County, 50 percent in Charlotte County and 30 percent in Sarasota County."

Less than 1,900 single family homes were sold in Manatee and Sarasota County for the first quarter of 2009 (Jan, Feb, Mar). So just for March and April (2 months) the tri-county area had over 5,000 filings. Not all of those will make it, but the idea that the market could absorb even close to that many filings without declining prices is simply absurd.

And with the future price declines come even more people upside down.

My 2 cents.

[SoFLGal]

Here are the stats from today:
55 new listings in Sarasota and Charlotte counties
65 pending
53 sold

Looks like there aren't as many going for way over list except for the properties under $100K or the homes in North Port and Port Charlotte.

I'll run through the sold so you can get a better picture:
1. Rotonda home, listed at $249,800, sold at $235K, foreign seller
2. Rotonda home, listed at $429,900, sold at $370K, foreign seller
3. Port Charlotte home, listed at $89,900, sold at $89,900, investor bought we were involved with the sale
4. Port Charlotte home, listed at $45,900, sold at $41,500, Bank owned
5. Port Charlotte home, listed at $57,900, sold at $59K, Bank owned
6. Punta Gorda Isles home, listed at $349K, sold at $320K, Regular sale
7. Port Charlotte home, listed at $41,900, sold at $43K, Bank owned
8. Port Charlotte condo, listed at $29K, sold at $34K, Bank owned
9. Port Charlotte home, listed at $62,700, sold at $60K, Bank owned
10. Port Charlotte home, listed at $65K, sold at $53,500, Bank owned
11. Port Charlotte home, listed at $128K, sold at $128K, Bank owned
12. Port Charlotte home, listed at $69,900K, sold at $60K, Bank owned
13. Port Charlotte home, listed at $100K, sold at $100K, Short sale
14. Port Charlotte home, listed at $35K, sold at $38K, Bank owned
15. Port Charlotte home, listed at $94,500, sold at $87,500K, regular sale
16. Punta Gorda home condo, listed at $99,900, sold at $93K, regular sale
17. Englewood home, listed at $149K, sold at $137K, Regular sale
18. Englewood home, listed at $179,500, sold at $150K, Regular sale
19. Sarasota condo, listed at $41,900, sold at $36K, Short Sale
20. Sarasota home, listed at $104,900, sold at $102K, Regular sale
21. Sarasota home, listed at $999K, sold at $680K, Short Sale
22. Sarasota home, listed at $50,900, sold at $55,100, Bank owned
23. Sarasota condo, listed at $67,200, sold at $56,500, Bank owned
24. Sarasota condo, listed at $185K, sold at $155K, Regular sale
25. Sarasota home, listed at $112,500, sold at $120K, Bank owned
26. Sarasota mobile, listed at $37,900K, sold at $35K, Regular sale
27. Sarasota home, listed at $220K, sold at $202K, Regular sale
28. Sarasota home, listed at $168,500, sold at $166K, Bank owned
29. Sarasota home, listed at $59,900, sold at $64K, Bank owned
30. Sarasota home, listed at $399,900, sold at $360K, Regular sale
31. Sarasota condo, listed at $359,900, sold at $300K, Regular sale
32. Sarasota home, listed at $1,275,000, sold at $1,150,000, Regular sale
33. Sarasota home, listed at $104,900, sold at $105K, Short sale
34. Sarasota home, listed at $42K, sold at $38,500, Bank owned
35. Sarasota home, listed at $140K, sold at $128,300, Short sale
36. Sarasota home, listed at $69K, sold at $62,500, Bank owned
37. Sarasota condo, listed at $499,900, sold at $425K, Regular sale
38. Sarasota home, listed at $76,900, sold at $69K, Bank owned
39. Sarasota villa, listed at $119,900, sold at $105K, Regular sale
40. Venice home, listed at $305K, sold at $280K, Regular sale
41. North Port home, listed at $229K, sold at $229K, Regular sale
42. North Port home, listed at $80K, sold at $105K, Bank owned
43. North Port home, listed at $69,900, sold at $69,900, Short Sale
44. North Port mobile, listed at $79,900, sold at $70K, Regular Sale
45. North Port home, listed at $359,900, sold at $343K, Regular sale
46. North Port home, listed at $64,900, sold at $50K, Regular sale
47. North Port home, listed at $78,500, sold at $80K, Bank owned
48. North Port town home, listed at $89,900, sold at $86,416, Bank owned
49. North Port town home, listed at $99K, sold at $99K, Regular sale
50. North Port home, listed at $30K, sold at $46,500, Regular sale
51. Venice home, listed at $92K, sold at $85K, Bank owned
52. Venice home, listed at $102K, sold at $105K, Bank owned
53. Venice home, listed at $96K, sold at $75K, Bank owned