Absorption Rate (Sarasota, Port Charlotte, North Port: loan, big house, buying)

[Big House]

I'm sorry, could you sort them from lowest to highest! LOL

SoFLGal
Great information! It helps to see what the actual spread is. Many have a misconception that they can offer much much lower than list. These actual numbers sure dont show that! Do they! I feel much better about my deal!

Since these are factual numbers based on real sales for these areas. You once again have helped CD people that are looking to buy a house, become better prepared. I tip my hat to you once again! Once again, you've proved why you are the best agent I've ever met!

[beerme1]

Thanks SoFLGAL. Number 30 and 31 fit exactly what my idea is of what we expect. I think we could get a single family home with a 400K asking price in Sarasota for 350, or 350 for 300 without a whole lot of trouble. This confirms my belief although we aren't really looking until next summer I can't see a big change between now and then but who knows!

30. Sarasota home, listed at $399,900, sold at $360K, Regular sale
31. Sarasota condo, listed at $359,900, sold at $300K, Regular sale

[SoFLGal]

Originally Posted by beerme1

Thanks SoFLGAL. Number 30 and 31 fit exactly what my idea is of what we expect. I think we could get a single family home with a 400K asking price in Sarasota for 350, or 350 for 300 without a whole lot of trouble. This confirms my belief although we aren't really looking until next summer I can't see a big change between now and then but who knows!

30. Sarasota home, listed at $399,900, sold at $360K, Regular sale
31. Sarasota condo, listed at $359,900, sold at $300K, Regular sale

I thought it might be helpful to some to see what things were listed for and what they actually sold for. If I have a few minutes last this afternoon I'll try and post some more stats. Generally, the more expensive the home is, the more of a spread you have between the listing and selling price.

[SoFLGal]

Here's an article in this mornings newspaper talking about the jobs market stabilizing. Seems kind of ironic since they just laid off 140 teachers in Sarasota county. Hmmmm....anyway, here it is.

Hints of stability found in state job data | HeraldTribune.com | Sarasota Florida | Southwest Florida's Information Leader

[JimMe]

Originally Posted by SoFLGal

Here's an article in this mornings newspaper talking about the jobs market stabilizing. Seems kind of ironic since they just laid off 140 teachers in Sarasota county. Hmmmm....anyway, here it is.

Hints of stability found in state job data | HeraldTribune.com | Sarasota Florida | Southwest Florida's Information Leader

A quick question: while there has been some speculation as to whether another round of foreclosures will add to the glut of homes on the market I didn't see (I may have missed it) any discussion about the building backlog of potential sellers who have been holding off putting their home on the market because of falling prices. What have you seen in that regard and what effect, if any, do you think those people putting their homes for sale will have on the market?

[SoFLGal]

Originally Posted by JimMe

A quick question: while there has been some speculation as to whether another round of foreclosures will add to the glut of homes on the market I didn't see (I may have missed it) any discussion about the building backlog of potential sellers who have been holding off putting their home on the market because of falling prices. What have you seen in that regard and what effect, if any, do you think those people putting their homes for sale will have on the market?

Good question, most of the people that are selling now absolutely have to sell. If they don't have to sell we are advising them to wait to sell. I think many of the homes sellers that want/need to sell are doing short sales because they bought in the last five years and are upside down on their mortgage.

It's hard to say how many homeowners are waiting on the sidelines for the tides to turn.

[JimMe]

Originally Posted by SoFLGal

Good question, most of the people that are selling now absolutely have to sell. If they don't have to sell we are advising them to wait to sell. I think many of the homes sellers that want/need to sell are doing short sales because they bought in the last five years and are upside down on their mortgage.

It's hard to say how many homeowners are waiting on the sidelines for the tides to turn.

A couple more questions: I assume you've been in this business for a good while. The information you've provided on this thread is not the work of a novice. So I also have to assume that you've probably been through one or two recessions in your career as a realtor. How does this recession compare with previous recessions you've experienced? And based on your experience what do you expect the real estate market in your area to look like two or three years from now?

[gypsychic]

Originally Posted by JimMe

A quick question: while there has been some speculation as to whether another round of foreclosures will add to the glut of homes on the market I didn't see (I may have missed it) any discussion about the building backlog of potential sellers who have been holding off putting their home on the market because of falling prices. What have you seen in that regard and what effect, if any, do you think those people putting their homes for sale will have on the market?

I'm no realtor, but I am wondering if there really is much of a "backlog" out there of people waiting to sell. I'm sort of thinking that a lot of folks who were considering it during the boom years were thinking of doing so to cash out and move to a larger or newer home, or new neighborhood, etc., and now that prices have swung down so wildly have just decided to stay put. Most people know it will be many, many years if ever to get back to the boom time prices. For instance, the guy across the street from me bought his house in 2005 for TWICE what we paid for ours last summer - he had intended to fix it up (which he did for lots of $$$$$) then flip and build a new one on another piece of property he owns. Well, he pretty much has said he has to keep that house for life now, he is so upside down on it.

I do think the only people selling now are those that really need to sell. We have our other house on the market in Lakeland, priced well below what we paid (but not a short sale) and not too much happening, but we really need to sell that one. Otherwise we would just wait it out for better times.

[JimMe]

Originally Posted by gypsychic

I'm no realtor, but I am wondering if there really is much of a "backlog" out there of people waiting to sell. I'm sort of thinking that a lot of folks who were considering it during the boom years were thinking of doing so to cash out and move to a larger or newer home, or new neighborhood, etc., and now that prices have swung down so wildly have just decided to stay put. Most people know it will be many, many years if ever to get back to the boom time prices. For instance, the guy across the street from me bought his house in 2005 for TWICE what we paid for ours last summer - he had intended to fix it up (which he did for lots of $$$$$) then flip and build a new one on another piece of property he owns. Well, he pretty much has said he has to keep that house for life now, he is so upside down on it.

I do think the only people selling now are those that really need to sell. We have our other house on the market in Lakeland, priced well below what we paid (but not a short sale) and not too much happening, but we really need to sell that one. Otherwise we would just wait it out for better times.

Good point. So if your analysis is correct most (if not the vast majority) of the pre-owned homes coming on the market in the foreseeable future will be foreclosures, short sales, and homes purchased before the boom.

[SoFLGal]

Originally Posted by JimMe

A couple more questions: I assume you've been in this business for a good while. The information you've provided on this thread is not the work of a novice. So I also have to assume that you've probably been through one or two recessions in your career as a realtor. How does this recession compare with previous recessions you've experienced? And based on your experience what do you expect the real estate market in your area to look like two or three years from now?

This recession seems a bit worse than previous recessions, IMO. One thing that differs with this recession is that the interest rates are still incredibly low. In previous recessions, for instance, in the early 80's the rates were upward of 20%.

The government has been very proactive in keeping the interest rates low and offering incentives like the $8k tax credit for first time home buyers. Housing prices never deflated as quickly and to the degree they have in this recession.

If you are to believe the news shows it will get worse for the next year or so and then prices will slowly increase. I think this is contingent on how the government reacts to stimulate the market.

If the government continues to manipulate the release of the foreclosures to market, then I believe you will see the market continue to stabilize and improve over the next few years.