Absorption Rate (Sarasota, Bradenton, Port Charlotte: real estate, 2009, foreclosures)

[SoFLGal]

I must get asked a few times a day about different communities in the area and if things are selling quickly or taking longer to sell, if things are picking up, which towns are selling the best, etc. So, here are some answers to questions using the absorption rate formula. I was answering a lot of calls while doing this so hope I did my calculations correctly and hopefully this can answer some of the emails of gotten lately

North Port
# of listings in North Port= 999 active listings
# of listings sold from Mar 22-Apr 22: 153
# of listings sold from Feb 22-Mar 22: 165
# of listings sold from Jan 22-Feb 22: 155
# of listings sold from Dec 22-Jan 22: 126
# of listings sold from Nov 22-Dec 22: 127
# of listings sold from Oct 22-Nov 22: 138
864 homes sold in the last six months in NP. Average number of homes sold per month over the last 6 months in NP: 144 homes
#sold (144 homes) X 12 (months) = 1728
divide 1728 by 52 weeks= 33.23 units per week
If 33.23 units sell each week divide that number into the number of active listings 33.23 divided by 999 = 30 weeks is the absorption rate or 7 ½ months of inventory in North Port.

Port Charlotte
# of listings in Port Charlotte= 1570 active listings
# of listings sold from Mar 22-Apr 22: 165
# of listings sold from Feb 22-Mar 22: 167
# of listings sold from Jan 22-Feb 22: 138
# of listings sold from Dec 22-Jan 22: 107
# of listings sold from Nov 22-Dec 22: 106
# of listings sold from Oct 22-Nov 22: 144
827 homes sold in the last six months in PC. Average number of homes sold per month over the last 6 months in PC: 139 homes
#sold (139 homes) X 12 (months) = 1668
divide 1668 by 52 weeks= 32 units per week
If 32 units sell each week divide that number into the number of active listings 32 divided by 1570 = 49 weeks is the absorption rate or about a years worth of inventory in Port Charlotte.

Punta Gorda
# of listings in Punta Gorda= 1616 active listings
# of listings sold from Mar 22-Apr 22: 95
# of listings sold from Feb 22-Mar 22: 85
# of listings sold from Jan 22-Feb 22: 69
# of listings sold from Dec 22-Jan 22: 58
# of listings sold from Nov 22-Dec 22: 53
# of listings sold from Oct 22-Nov 22: 71
431 homes sold in the last six months in PG. Average number of homes sold per month over the last 6 months in PG: 72 homes
#sold (72 homes) X 12 (months) = 864
divide 864 by 52 weeks= 17 units per week
If 17 units sell each week divide that number into the number of active listings 17 divided by 1616 = 95 weeks of inventory or nearly two years worth of inventory in Punta Gorda.

Venice
# of listings in Venice= 1447 active listings
# of listings sold from Mar 22-Apr 22: 94
# of listings sold from Feb 22-Mar 22: 93
# of listings sold from Jan 22-Feb 22: 89
# of listings sold from Dec 22-Jan 22: 96
# of listings sold from Nov 22-Dec 22: 115
# of listings sold from Oct 22-Nov 22: 127
614 homes sold in the last six months in Venice. Average number of homes sold per month over the last 6 months in Venice: 102 homes
#sold (102 homes) X 12 (months) = 1224
divide 1224 by 52 weeks= 24 units per week
If 24 units sell each week divide that number into the number of active listings 24 divided by 1447 = 60 weeks of inventory or over a years worth of inventory in Venice.

Sarasota
# of listings in Sarasota= 5026 active listings
# of listings sold from Mar 22-Apr 22: 373
# of listings sold from Feb 22-Mar 22: 319
# of listings sold from Jan 22-Feb 22: 287
# of listings sold from Dec 22-Jan 22: 254
# of listings sold from Nov 22-Dec 22: 271
# of listings sold from Oct 22-Nov 22: 298
1802 homes sold in the last six months in Sarasota. Average number of homes sold per month over the last 6 months in Sarasota: 300 homes
#sold (300 homes) X 12 (months) = 3600
divide 3600 by 52 weeks= 69 units per week
If 69 units sell each week divide that number into the number of active listings 69 divided by 5026 = 73 weeks of inventory or about a year and a half worth of inventory in Sarasota.

Osprey
# of listings in Osprey= 304 active listings
# of listings sold from Mar 22-Apr 22: 11
# of listings sold from Feb 22-Mar 22: 15
# of listings sold from Jan 22-Feb 22: 14
# of listings sold from Dec 22-Jan 22: 7
# of listings sold from Nov 22-Dec 22: 17
# of listings sold from Oct 22-Nov 22: 9
73 homes sold in the last six months in Osprey. Average number of homes sold per month over the last 6 months in Osprey: 12 homes
#sold (12 homes) X 12 (months) = 144
divide 144 by 52 weeks= 3 units per week
If 3 units sell each week divide that number into the number of active listings 3 divided by 304 = 101 weeks of inventory or about two years worth of inventory in Osprey.

Englewood
# of listings in Englewood= 1050 active listings
# of listings sold from Mar 22-Apr 22: 68
# of listings sold from Feb 22-Mar 22: 73
# of listings sold from Jan 22-Feb 22: 44
# of listings sold from Dec 22-Jan 22: 57
# of listings sold from Nov 22-Dec 22: 60
# of listings sold from Oct 22-Nov 22: 47
349 homes sold in the last six months in Englewood. Average number of homes sold per month over the last 6 months in Englewood: 58 homes
#sold (58 homes) X 12 (months) = 696
divide 696 by 52 weeks= 13 units per week
If 13 units sell each week divide that number into the number of active listings 13 divided by 1050 = 81 weeks of inventory or about a year and a half worth of inventory in Englewood.

[SoFLGal]

Another thing I wanted to point out is that we deal with a lot of foreclosures and we are seeing very few come on in the last month or so. This is true of all of the foreclosure Realtors I speak with in the area. So, the absorption rate may be a little quicker due to this fact. I was told that one cause for the slow down in foreclosures is that some counties are requiring the bank or their representative to meet with the homeowner to see if there's anything that can be done to keep them in their home. If they fail to do this the foreclosure is denied.

http://www.heraldtribune.com/article.../ADVERTISEMENT

I was looking at a few of the closings in North Port for today and many of them went for $15-$20K over list price on homes price around $100K.

I do know though that many of the option ARM mortgages are set to have their first adjustment in May. It was my understanding that many of the option ARM loans were given to borrowers with great credit so this might affect some of the homes on the higher end.

[Glurknobia]

Awesome data, thanks for posting. According to Yahoo the MCO, MIA and TPA markets have a ways to go before bottoming. You may have already seent this, but it is interesting: How Low Will Real Estate Go? - Yahoo! Real Estate-

[SoFLGal]

Yeah, I did see that Glurknobia-Interesting article.

Here are some more facts that people might find interesting. People always ask me if they can afford a certain area. Here are average listing and selling prices and average square footage of homes.
Often time people ask me, “What do you think they’ll take?’’ Well, here’s your answer. You better stay pretty close to list price in North Port if you want any chance of getting a home and a lot of homes have been going for over list price.

You might be able to get away with $10K under list in Port Charlotte. In Venice and Punta Gorda the average selling price is running around $20K under list. Englewood is running $30K under list and some of the more expensive areas where the homes are selling for more like Osprey and Sarasota you might be able to get away with $50K or so below list. Of course, each home needs to be looked at on an individual basis.

North Port:
North Port’s average listing price for the last 6 months $109,942-Average selling price for the last six months is $103,348:
Average list price Mar 22-Apr 22 was $110,581 and the average selling price was $104,375. (Which I think will be much different next month with many homes going for over list). Average size home was 1584 sq ft under air.
Average list price Feb 22-Mar 22 was $102,866 and the average selling price was $97,740. Average size home selling is 1577 sq ft under air.
Average list price Jan 22-Feb 22 was $107,611 and the average selling price was $102,215. Average size home selling was 1570 under air.
Average list price Dec 22-Jan 22 was $109,632 and average selling price was $102,361. Average size home selling was 1580 sq ft under air.
Average list price Nov 22-Dec 22 was $115,575 and average selling price was $108,624. Average size home selling was 1661 sq ft under air.
Average list price Oct 22-Nov 22 was $110, 261 and average selling price was $104,772. Average size home selling was 1582 sq ft under air.

Port Charlotte:
Port Charlotte’s average listing price for the last 6 months $118,867-Average selling price for the last six months is $107,762:
Average list price Mar 22-Apr 22 was $116,838 and the average selling price was $104,512. Average size home was 1480 sq ft under air.
Average list price Feb 22-Mar 22 was $114,300 and the average selling price was $104,148. Average size home selling is 1468 sq ft under air.
Average list price Jan 22-Feb 22 was $121,914 and the average selling price was $109,562. Average size home selling was 1548 under air.
Average list price Dec 22-Jan 22 was $119,471 and average selling price was $108,448. Average size home selling was 1598 sq ft under air.
Average list price Nov 22-Dec 22 was $133,749 and average selling price was $122,182. Average size home selling was 1633 sq ft under air.
Average list price Oct 22-Nov 22 was $106,930 and average selling price was $97,724. Average size home selling was 1400 sq ft under air.

Punta Gorda:
Punta Gorda’s average listing price for the last 6 months $233,813-Average selling price for the last six months is $210,967:
Average list price Mar 22-Apr 22 was $196,088 and the average selling price was $177,133. Average size home was 1610 sq ft under air.
Average list price Feb 22-Mar 22 was $219,968 and the average selling price was $199,599. Average size home selling is 1708 sq ft under air.
Average list price Jan 22-Feb 22 was $253,755 and the average selling price was $226,337. Average size home selling was 1805 under air.
Average list price Dec 22-Jan 22 was $238,778 and average selling price was $215,497. Average size home selling was 1764 sq ft under air.
Average list price Nov 22-Dec 22 was $228,494 and average selling price was $205,927. Average size home selling was 1718 sq ft under air.
Average list price Oct 22-Nov 22 was $265,797 and average selling price was $241,309. Average size home selling was 1400 sq ft under air.

Venice:
Venice’s average listing price for the last 6 months $195,061-Average selling price for the last six months is $176,486:
Average list price Mar 22-Apr 22 was $205,421 and the average selling price was $185,473. Average size home was 1514 sq ft under air.
Average list price Feb 22-Mar 22 was $193,075 and the average selling price was $176,007. Average size home selling is 1508 sq ft under air.
Average list price Jan 22-Feb 22 was $169,828 and the average selling price was $151,343. Average size home selling was 1465 under air.
Average list price Dec 22-Jan 22 was $200,346 and average selling price was $180,700. Average size home selling was 1576 sq ft under air.
Average list price Nov 22-Dec 22 was $212,159 and average selling price was $192,960. Average size home selling was 1569 sq ft under air.
Average list price Oct 22-Nov 22 was $189,539 and average selling price was $172,433. Average size home selling was 1537 sq ft under air.

Osprey (there are very few homes that sell here so one home may swing the stats wildly):
Osprey’s average listing price for the last 6 months $598,613-Average selling price for the last six months is $514,064:
Average list price Mar 22-Apr 22 was $743,309 and the average selling price was $592,809. Average size home was 2606 sq ft under air.
Average list price Feb 22-Mar 22 was $288,953 and the average selling price was $237,416. Average size home selling is 1848 sq ft under air.
Average list price Jan 22-Feb 22 was $489,749 and the average selling price was $427,671. Average size home selling was 2507 under air.
Average list price Dec 22-Jan 22 was $471,996 and average selling price was $421,114. Average size home selling was 2570 sq ft under air.
Average list price Nov 22-Dec 22 was $655,129 and average selling price was $557,111. Average size home selling was 2227 sq ft under air.
Average list price Oct 22-Nov 22 was $942,544 and average selling price was $848,266. Average size home selling was 2679 sq ft under air.

Sarasota:
Sarasota’s average listing price for the last 6 months $280,993-Average selling price for the last six months is $254,792:
Average list price Mar 22-Apr 22 was $261,841 and the average selling price was $233,388. Average size home was 1655 sq ft under air.
Average list price Feb 22-Mar 22 was $254,348 and the average selling price was $255,176. Average size home selling is 1671 sq ft under air.
Average list price Jan 22-Feb 22 was $264,097 and the average selling price was $233,143. Average size home selling was 1621 under air.
Average list price Dec 22-Jan 22 was $308,981 and average selling price was $275,978. Average size home selling was 1797 sq ft under air.
Average list price Nov 22-Dec 22 was $298,134 and average selling price was $267,277. Average size home selling was 1683 sq ft under air.
Average list price Oct 22-Nov 22 was $298,561 and average selling price was $263,791. Average size home selling was 1739 sq ft under air.

Englewood:
Englewood's average listing price for the last 6 months $193,408-Average selling price for the last six months is $165,451:
Average list price Mar 22-Apr 22 was $206,286 and the average selling price was $179,604. Average size home was 1396 sq ft under air.
Average list price Feb 22-Mar 22 was $207,745 and the average selling price was $176,502. Average size home selling is 1525 sq ft under air.
Average list price Jan 22-Feb 22 was $219,794 and the average selling price was $176,053. Average size home selling was 1495 under air.
Average list price Dec 22-Jan 22 was $143,396 and average selling price was $129,252. Average size home selling was 1409 sq ft under air.
Average list price Nov 22-Dec 22 was $165,660 and average selling price was $146,519. Average size home selling was 1508 sq ft under air.
Average list price Oct 22-Nov 22 was $217,567 and average selling price was $184,773. Average size home selling was 1479 sq ft under air.

[FLBob]

Good work SoFLGal. Have you thought about doing a cross post this under CD's Real Estate forum?

[HomeStager]

Very Interesting. Thanks for posting that. Any stats for Bradentons absorption rate or is it about the same as Sarasota?

[SoFLGal]

Originally Posted by FLBob

Good work SoFLGal. Have you thought about doing a cross post this under CD's Real Estate forum?

Can you just copy and paste the info into another post or do you post a link? Not sure what proper etiquette is for this forum. Anyway, thanks

[SoFLGal]

Originally Posted by HomeStager

Very Interesting. Thanks for posting that. Any stats for Bradentons absorption rate or is it about the same as Sarasota?

No, Bradenton's numbers are different. I can pull most of the numbers in the area in case anyone is interested. Here's how Bradenton shakes out:

Bradenton
# of listings in Bradenton= 3056 active listings
# of listings sold from Mar 22-Apr 22: 201
# of listings sold from Feb 22-Mar 22: 198
# of listings sold from Jan 22-Feb 22: 200
# of listings sold from Dec 22-Jan 22: 152
# of listings sold from Nov 22-Dec 22: 158
# of listings sold from Oct 22-Nov 22: 175
1084 homes sold in the last six months in Bradenton. Average number of homes sold per month over the last 6 months in Bradenton: 181 homes
#sold (181 homes) X 12 (months) = 2172
divide 2172 by 52 weeks= 42 units per week
If 42 units sell each week divide that number into the number of active listings 42 divided by 3056 = 73 weeks is the absorption rate or about a year and a half of inventory in Bradenton.

Bradenton:
Bradenton’s average listing price for the last 6 months $189,680-Average selling price for the last six months is $170,233:
Average list price Mar 22-Apr 22 was $175,154 and the average selling price was $155,793. Average size home selling was 1619 sq ft under air.
Average list price Feb 22-Mar 22 was $171,252 and the average selling price was $152,335. Average size home selling was 1550 sq ft under air.
Average list price Jan 22-Feb 22 was $178,945 and the average selling price was $161,945. Average size home selling was 1647 under air.
Average list price Dec 22-Jan 22 was $200,279 and the average selling price was $176,770. Average size home selling was 1650 sq ft under air.
Average list price Nov 22-Dec 22 was $201,378 and the average selling price was $183,214. Average size home selling was 1695 sq ft under air.
Average list price Oct 22-Nov 22 was $211,070 and the average selling price was $191,341. Average size home selling was 1703 sq ft under air.

[FLBob]

Originally Posted by SoFLGal

Can you just copy and paste the info into another post or do you post a link? Not sure what proper etiquette is for this forum. Anyway, thanks

I've seen it done both ways. Your call.
I think in this case you should post an introductory statement with a link to this thread. You could still receive comments on both threads.

[loves2read]

very interesting to read that info--and as you say it all depends on the individual home under consideration...
and are you counting CONDOs in areas like Venice which is really condo heavy in those numbers or is it strickly SFR's?

and are you anticipating that foreclosures will start to increase after banks/mortgage companies adhere to the meeting with the homeowners and everyone realized that there is no way to make up that mortgage money...
I thought most people were looking for greater numbers to come on foreclosures market after the next ARM date vs fewer ones...

would you have any info on what % of buyers were paying cash vs mortgage
and what % of buyers were from out of the US -- Canadians or Europeans or even primary residence out of FL...

I think a lot of this is investment buying--people who took their money of the market when they could see the flop start (there was largest $$$ of money in cash deposits last year around May of any time in US history from what our finance guy said)-- some people certainly were not fully in the stock market...and with the stock market still being recalcitrant, some people are making choices based on what is a good price/buy vs what is the best price/buy...
but I am not there so that is just my opinion...