Why hasn't the Singularity gone mainstream (yet?) (power, advance, monitor)
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First I agree that we can't live "forever" why I put it in quotes. It's more a theoretical goal. As no matter how long you live you can't say there I have done it and lived forever. Plus it won't be one magical pill but a bridge to a bridge to a bridge. Right now the key is to exercise stay safe and not get hit by the proverbial bus. The second bridge is starting by 2020 and will be the bio tech. The third bridge will be the nano tech where we start to merge with computers and that will be by 2030. The fourth bridge will be our ability to back up our conscious to a computer and will occur by 2045. At that point we will be sufficiently advanced enough to settle the debate on how and why it is still us.
I understood what you meant by the word "forever" in quotes. The problem is using such terms can be easily misunderstood. After all, shouldn't it be about clarification? Generally, my post was to express some thoughts to chew on, things that I think that can be easily overlooked when too much eagerness with anticipation can cloud common sense and good judgement. If we don't use good judgement now, how can we expect the future to be any different?
Barring fatal accidents, isn't the point about extreme longevity? Here's what you said in your post: This is why we will see major advancements not in 100 years but 10 and that will impact many things including reverse aging and our ability to live for "forever".
In next 10 years, we'll see major advancements including reverse aging (really?) and our ability to live "forever" (extreme longevity or lifespan). Based on what you've indicated in the past, such extreme longevity could be hundreds of millions to perhaps billions of years. That sounds cool. I'd like that too. But how realistic is it? Is it a theoretical goal? No, it isn't. At best maybe hypothetical, but even at that it's really just speculative.
What you're saying it's a bridge to a bridge to a bridge. Then giving the years for the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th bridge to occur. By 2045, give or take a few years, we'll have the ability to back up our consciousness. Alright, before leaping through the hoop, let's think it through.
- How much consciousness would need to be backed up? Keep in mind that you have consciousness throughout your entire life, unless you're unconscious or dead.
- What would backing up your consciousness actually accomplish?
- What would the backup be used for?
- How would it contribute to making life better?
- If your consciousness is turned into digital data, what happens to the rest of you (your physical self)?
Barring fatal accidents, isn't the point about extreme longevity? Here's what you said in your post: This is why we will see major advancements not in 100 years but 10 and that will impact many things including reverse aging and our ability to live for "forever".
In next 10 years, we'll see major advancements including reverse aging (really?) and our ability to live "forever" (extreme longevity or lifespan). Based on what you've indicated in the past, such extreme longevity could be hundreds of millions to perhaps billions of years. That sounds cool. I'd like that too. But how realistic is it? Is it a theoretical goal? No, it isn't. At best maybe hypothetical, but even at that it's really just speculative.
I know how it sounds and at fist I was skeptical as well but I have studied this topic a lot and with how information technology is advancing exponentially it will start to happen in the next 10 years. Plus as it gets closer there is more and more proof of it happening. Just look at the last article I posted.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NightBazaar
What you're saying it's a bridge to a bridge to a bridge. Then giving the years for the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th bridge to occur. By 2045, give or take a few years, we'll have the ability to back up our consciousness. Alright, before leaping through the hoop, let's think it through.
- How much consciousness would need to be backed up? Keep in mind that you have consciousness throughout your entire life, unless you're unconscious or dead.
I can answer this one. It will have to be all of it. Why we have to wait till 2045 so we have the computing power to do it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NightBazaar
- What would backing up your consciousness actually accomplish?
- What would the backup be used for?
- How would it contribute to making life better?
- If your consciousness is turned into digital data, what happens to the rest of you (your physical self)?
- Where would you store that data?
- Would anyone else have access to it?
These are all good questions and while I could make educated guesses that is all they would be. Honestly its still about 30 years away and there is a lot more things to come before this (bio tech and nano tech with merging with computers) and the impact that will have on society. Once we successfully do that then we can worry about how and the impact of backing up our conscious as we will have a lot more knowledge to be better able to deal with it.
I know how it sounds and at fist I was skeptical as well but I have studied this topic a lot and with how information technology is advancing exponentially it will start to happen in the next 10 years. Plus as it gets closer there is more and more proof of it happening. Just look at the last article I posted.
I read it. "Soon" the article says. You've kind of shuffled aside my point though, namely speculating what will happen in the next 10 years (to acquire the ability of extreme longevity) as though that's an indisputable fact. We ain't there yet kiddo, so it's not a fact. It remains speculation, not theoretical.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie
I can answer this one. It will have to be all of it. Why we have to wait till 2045 so we have the computing power to do it.
Okay, so ALL of your consciousness will downloaded early. Does that include all of your memories? So there's no need to have to wait until 2045. So you expect to do that sometime around 2024 (that's 10 years away). Regardless, exactly what will you be downloading your consciousness to?
Assuming you'll still be alive and kicking in 2024, you do realize that it won't be ALL of your memories. As long as you're alive you acquire new memories from your continued experiences. Or do you plan to be wired up so there will be a constant transfer of information to be stored?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie
These are all good questions and while I could make educated guesses that is all they would be. Honestly its still about 30 years away and there is a lot more things to come before this (bio tech and nano tech with merging with computers) and the impact that will have on society. Once we successfully do that then we can worry about how and the impact of backing up our conscious as we will have a lot more knowledge to be better able to deal with it.
30 years away? What happened to the 10 years away? How do you figure that? Isn't that when you expect to to be able to download ALL your consciousness?
"Once we successfully do that then we can worry about how and the impact of backing up our conscious..."
Seriously? Do it now and worry about it later? That's not very sensible at all. Don't you think it would make more sense consider the potential risks and challenges first? How great would that be if you discovered later that maybe you don't have as much knowledge after all to deal with it as you assume now? By then, it'd be too late since you would've already pushed the mystery button. Good luck with that.
I read it. "Soon" the article says. You've kind of shuffled aside my point though, namely speculating what will happen in the next 10 years (to acquire the ability of extreme longevity) as though that's an indisputable fact. We ain't there yet kiddo, so it's not a fact. It remains speculation, not theoretical.
The article I was referring to says this:
With new clinical trials popping up almost daily, experts predict that by early-to-mid 2020s, doctors will use stem cells loaded with non-degrading telomeres, along with low-cost 3D bioprinters to replace aging skin and strengthen frail bones and muscles. These replacements promise to cure or make manageable most of today's age-related illnesses, including heart disease, cancer, diabetes, and most brain disorders.
Okay, so ALL of your consciousness will downloaded early. Does that include all of your memories? So there's no need to have to wait until 2045. So you expect to do that sometime around 2024 (that's 10 years away).
We will not have the computing power to back up our brain till 2045, the date Ray Kurzweil calls the singularity.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NightBazaar
Seriously? Do it now and worry about it later? That's not very sensible at all. Don't you think it would make more sense consider the potential risks and challenges first? How great would that be if you discovered later that maybe you don't have as much knowledge after all to deal with it as you assume now? By then, it'd be too late since you would've already pushed the mystery button. Good luck with that.
What I am saying is being able to back up our conscious is not till 2045 and well before that we will start to merge with computers and even before that have reverse aging. So I am saying take one step at a time. Right now I am focused on making it to the 2020's so I can take part in the bio tech revaluation then 2030 with the nano tech revaluation. After that is when I will start to really focus on what will happen in 2045 with our ability to back up our conscious as we will have more knowledge and information on how it will work and the 2030's is well before it will actually happen so I will have plenty of time to get ready.
With new clinical trials popping up almost daily, experts predict that by early-to-mid 2020s, doctors will use stem cells loaded with non-degrading telomeres, along with low-cost 3D bioprinters to replace aging skin and strengthen frail bones and muscles. These replacements promise to cure or make manageable most of today's age-related illnesses, including heart disease, cancer, diabetes, and most brain disorders.
Excuse me, but you said, "Just look at the last article I posted." I'm not a mind reader. Is the 2020s Biotech article the last article you posted? No, I don't think so. The last article you posted was the Wired article titled: "Forget Robots...", not the IEET article, "2020s Biotech..."
Here we go again. "... experts predict..." Let's peer into the crystal ball and see what the future will bring. Predicting something does not make it absolute ahead of the event predicted. Maybe it will or maybe it won't. If you flip a coin, there's a 50-50 chance it will come up heads or tails. You're not going to know until it lands.
I'm reminded of the quote from Cool Hand Luke: "What we have here is a failure to communicate."
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie
We will not have the computing power to back up our brain till 2045, the date Ray Kurzweil calls the singularity.
One last time, this is what you said:
"This is why we will see major advancements not in 100 years but 10 and that will impact many things including reverse aging and our ability to live for "forever"."
So according to you these major advancements (reverse aging and ability to live forever) will not begin in a 100 years from now, but rather a mere 10 years from now. Don't go pulling another switcheroo by tossing Kurzweil's Singularity in here. Stick to the point you made about reverse aging and extreme lifespan 10 years from now, both of which would definitely be considered to be major advancements. If you're saying that won't happen in the next 10 years, then you shouldn't have brought it up.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie
What I am saying is being able to back up our conscious is not till 2045 and well before that we will start to merge with computers and even before that have reverse aging. So I am saying take one step at a time. Right now I am focused on making it to the 2020's so I can take part in the bio tech revaluation then 2030 with the nano tech revaluation. After that is when I will start to really focus on what will happen in 2045 with our ability to back up our conscious as we will have more knowledge and information on how it will work and the 2030's is well before it will actually happen so I will have plenty of time to get ready.
Sorry, but you did not say anything about backing up our consciousness until 2045. In fact you stressed to back up ALL your consciousness. As pointed out to you, to reach a point of being able to back up ALL your consciousness would be completed at the moment of your death. Otherwise, whatever you're backing it up to would only be part of your consciousness, not all of it.
Okay, so you're now focused on making it to the 2020s so you can take part in biotech. What do you plan to take part of in the area of biotech?
In the 2030s, comes nanotech. What will you do at that point? BTW, nanotech is already around commercially. For example, a number of hearing aids use nanocoating (carbon, I think) to protect components from moisture, dust, etc.
In 2045, technology will be able to back up a person's consciousness, even though you have no idea if that will in fact happen or not, and that amounts to speculation and wishful thinking. It could just as easily turn out that our increased knowledge and information might discover that it might not feasible, maybe not even possible. We don't know. And even if it can be done, what makes you think you'll be one of the chosen to participate in something like that? You might find yourself standing in a very long line. Maybe you'd better start making some solid connections with people who are in a position to make it happen.
Frankly, I'd say well before anything like that would become available to the general public, it would more likely be firmly in the hands of the military. If it were released to the general public, maybe even before then, it would likely find its way into the black market and into the hands of people with not-so-peaceful intentions. I will again state my point that it is important to carefully consider the risks and challenges first before jumping headlong into it. Remember the lessons to be learned about Pandora's Box as well as the atomic bomb. Once something is out of the box, it can be difficult to get it back in if it turns out to be a greater problem than expected.
Excuse me, but you said, "Just look at the last article I posted." I'm not a mind reader. Is the 2020s Biotech article the last article you posted? No, I don't think so. The last article you posted was the Wired article titled: "Forget Robots...", not the IEET article, "2020s Biotech..."
Here we go again. "... experts predict..." Let's peer into the crystal ball and see what the future will bring. Predicting something does not make it absolute ahead of the event predicted. Maybe it will or maybe it won't. If you flip a coin, there's a 50-50 chance it will come up heads or tails. You're not going to know until it lands.
I'm reminded of the quote from Cool Hand Luke: "What we have here is a failure to communicate."
Why I posted the article so it would end any confusion.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NightBazaar
One last time, this is what you said:
"This is why we will see major advancements not in 100 years but 10 and that will impact many things including reverse aging and our ability to live for "forever"."
So according to you these major advancements (reverse aging and ability to live forever) will not begin in a 100 years from now, but rather a mere 10 years from now. Don't go pulling another switcheroo by tossing Kurzweil's Singularity in here. Stick to the point you made about reverse aging and extreme lifespan 10 years from now, both of which would definitely be considered to be major advancements. If you're saying that won't happen in the next 10 years, then you shouldn't have brought it up.
Being able to live "forever" is 4 bridges. The first bridge is just what we are doing now to make it to the second bridge that will begin by 2020, the bio tech revaluation. Then by the mid 2020's you will see life expectancy start to go up faster then we age and we will all look like we are in our 20's as biologically we will be. That is what I am referring to when I say we will see major advancements not in 100 but 10. Our third bridge is the nano tech revaluation and that will start in the late 2020's by 2030 and is when we will start to merge with computers as by 2030 a computer the size of a blood cell will have thousands of times more processing capability then the Google Glass today.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NightBazaar
Sorry, but you did not say anything about backing up our consciousness until 2045. In fact you stressed to back up ALL your consciousness. As pointed out to you, to reach a point of being able to back up ALL your consciousness would be completed at the moment of your death. Otherwise, whatever you're backing it up to would only be part of your consciousness, not all of it.
Being able to back up or conscious is the 4th bridge to living "forever" and will occur by 2045.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NightBazaar
Okay, so you're now focused on making it to the 2020s so you can take part in biotech. What do you plan to take part of in the area of biotech?
A few things like reverse aging, the ability to turn off the fat gene, 3D printing of any organs or skin etc that I might need. Essentially any advancements in biology and genetics that will help me be 20 again, biologically speaking.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NightBazaar
In the 2030s, comes nanotech. What will you do at that point? BTW, nanotech is already around commercially. For example, a number of hearing aids use nanocoating (carbon, I think) to protect components from moisture, dust, etc.
I will merge with computers and have them augment my immune system, ending disease for me, and intelligence. By the 2030's I will be able to read and understand the entire knowledge of the human race in a few minutes. How will that impact how I live? Not to mention VR so real that I will think I am there.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NightBazaar
In 2045, technology will be able to back up a person's consciousness, even though you have no idea if that will in fact happen or not, and that amounts to speculation and wishful thinking. It could just as easily turn out that our increased knowledge and information might discover that it might not feasible, maybe not even possible. We don't know. And even if it can be done, what makes you think you'll be one of the chosen to participate in something like that? You might find yourself standing in a very long line. Maybe you'd better start making some solid connections with people who are in a position to make it happen.
Frankly, I'd say well before anything like that would become available to the general public, it would more likely be firmly in the hands of the military. If it were released to the general public, maybe even before then, it would likely find its way into the black market and into the hands of people with not-so-peaceful intentions. I will again state my point that it is important to carefully consider the risks and challenges first before jumping headlong into it. Remember the lessons to be learned about Pandora's Box as well as the atomic bomb. Once something is out of the box, it can be difficult to get it back in if it turns out to be a greater problem than expected.
It will happen and will be just as common as backing up our computers today.
Excuse me, but you said, "Just look at the last article I posted." I'm not a mind reader. Is the 2020s Biotech article the last article you posted? No, I don't think so. The last article you posted was the Wired article titled: "Forget Robots...", not the IEET article, "2020s Biotech..."
Here we go again. "... experts predict..." Let's peer into the crystal ball and see what the future will bring. Predicting something does not make it absolute ahead of the event predicted. Maybe it will or maybe it won't. If you flip a coin, there's a 50-50 chance it will come up heads or tails. You're not going to know until it lands.
I'm reminded of the quote from Cool Hand Luke: "What we have here is a failure to communicate." .
I've given up arguing with him on the issue, his reply usually tends to be "computers are advancing exponentially"; he's completely obsessed and blinded by the singularity theory (no offense Josse).
I've given up arguing with him on the issue, his reply usually tends to be "computers are advancing exponentially"; he's completely obsessed and blinded by the singularity theory (no offense Josse).
No offense taken. I understand this is not a easy concept to grasp. Computers advance exponentially and the impact that will have on us not in 100 to 300 years but 10-30 is going to change the entire way we live. I study this all the time and I am still learning new things on how society will change in 10 years and it amazes me.
I will merge with computers and have them augment my immune system, ending disease for me, and intelligence. By the 2030's I will be able to read and understand the entire knowledge of the human race in a few minutes. How will that impact how I live? Not to mention VR so real that I will think I am there.
It will happen and will be just as common as backing up our computers today.
While you spend time dreaming of an idealistic future and of what might happen (although you continue insisting it WILL happen), you're overlooking the here and now. Earlier you said: "Once we successfully do that then we can worry about how and the impact of backing up our conscious..."
In other words, do it now and worry about it later. The problems have to be ironed out first, otherwise it wouldn't be any different than flipping the coin and hoping for the best. As has been mentioned many times, it is very possible that the scenario, not to mention the timeline, could run into an unforeseen problem. You're looking at all the great things that MIGHT happen, but not taking into account the problems that could occur. It's those pesky problems that could through a wrench into the cogs if they are ignored. Prevention of problems is always better than trying to fix problems later, or worse to find out they can't be fixed or it's too late to fix it. I don't think you fully appreciate or understand the importance of that.
Below is a link that points out such problems, problems that exist right now. Even though you feel you are an expert because you read articles, watch YouTube videos, etc., and feel you are an expert on the subject, these are people with far more realistic expertise. I would recommend that you carefully read it, and watch all 3 short related videos.
"So we have to treat it as serious now because we can’t predict the future." - Rohit Sethi, vice president of security firm Security Compass
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