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Interesting article on what could happen when we merge with computers.
Since the dawn of computer science, humans have dreamt of building machines that can carry our memories and preserve our minds after our fleshy bodies decay. Whole brain emulation, or mind uploading, still has the ring of science fiction. And yet, some of the world’s leading neuroscientists believe the technology to transfer our brains to computers is not far off.
But if we could upload our minds, should we? Some see uploading as the next chapter in human evolution. Others fear the promise of immortality has been oversold, and that sending our brains off to the cloud without carefully weighing the consequences could be disastrous.
[b]These things plus we will connect directly to the internet bi-passing our smartphones and computers.
Yeah, it is called the Internet of Things and is happening right as we speak; the super connectivity between you, and everything around you, with everything else (such as your toaster sending you an "update" to your lawnmower that the toast is done).
As of last year I was reading up on 5G and how no one currently knows what it will look like but the estimated rollout of 5G networks will be roughly ten years from now. All they know is that it is going to be completely different from 2G, 3G, and 4G in that it will do vastly more than just connect your smartphone or tablet to the Internet.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie
Moore's law will be around for another 10 years then from what I have read we will go to the 3D chips. Well we are already moving in that direction anyway as 30% of new chips are 3D.
The man who originated Moore's Law believes the steady shrinking of computer chip circuitry will continue on for at least five to 10 years.
Moore's Law is ultimately about economics/financials, not a max-min chip size as most people erroneously state. That is, R&D spending is through the roof only to produce a product that is smaller, faster, and cheaper. Year after the year the R&D gets more pricey yet the technology gets smaller, faster, and cheaper. At some point, it will cost $Billions to R&D the perfect chip, and it will be 100% free to consumers. That is Moore's Law.
"The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year. Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase. Over the longer term, the rate of increase is a bit more uncertain, although there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years."
G. Moore, 1965. He is talking about circuit density vs. costs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie
Here is what is just on the horizon and if you keep in mind this technology is advancing exponentially what it will be like in 15 years when I argue we will have hit the singularity.
Computers will have developed “common sense” within a decade and we could be counting them among our friends not long afterwards, one of the world’s leading AI scientists has predicted...........
He painted a picture of the near-future in which people will chat with their computers, not only to extract information, but for fun – reminiscent of the film, Her, in which Joaquin Phoenix falls in love with his intelligent operating system.
No, computers will not develop "common sense" within a decade. Probably, never.
It's funny; people have been talking about the "singularity" for a few decades now that I am aware of. I know it was a big topic with Art Bell back in the early 1990s. We are supposed to be there, now, but it is always "10 to 15 years" out. Always. Ten years from now you will be saying In ten years...
What Google wants to do is to create technology that would have the ability to not only "know" what you are looking at but to also know how you feel about it. This is 100% to be used for targeted marketing to consumers. It is no secret, that is how Google makes their money. I mean, ever stop to wonder why all of Google's apps are free? Or how the Android mobile OS got to be so popular (here is a clue, it is not because Android is the best) yet Google is this ginormous company who seems to bring in very large amounts of profits?
I kid you not, look into psychology based technology. Google is seriously only building this stuff to make a buck off what brand of shoes you look at and their ability to predict your likelihood of purchasing those shoes.
Within the science community, the current understanding is that no one actually wants computers that can "think" for themselves.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie
Why I have argued we will have reverse aging by 2023.
An exhaustive analysis of factors that allow mature cells to become like embryonic stem cells again has revealed a spliced form of a gene found only in primates that greatly aids the reprogramming of mature cells.
Cells die. Period. You cannot turn back a cellular clock. What can be done, perhaps, is to develop a method that would all but ensure that not only will all cells produce daughter cells but that the genetic material remains in complete and non-mutated copies. The draw back to this, and nearly all other biological functions, is that the materials need to be brought in from somewhere else in order to build the new cells. Sure, there are some reserve materials "floating" around but what cells cannot produce on their own requires the body to consume... ...nutritious food. Otherwise, this material is going to come from other cells. Like all "mechanical" parts, stuff wears out. Joints loose cartilage. Bones loose calcium. Lungs loose air sacs at high rates every day even if one is not a smoker and breathes nothing but pure, clean, air everyday.
This article certainly isn't in any way showing an advancement toward a singularity. If you notice, its says that "In spite of all the computing firepower and sophisticated population divergence modeling, the team’s eureka moment of nailing down the third ancestral population required a stroke of luck as well."
That stroke of "luck" was 2 humans noticing "that things fit better mathematically if something close to the Native American genome was one of the ancestral populations of modern Europeans."
Plus, who actually modeled these programs?
The singularity is only when artificial intelligence is smarter then a human and we have to merge with the tech to keep up. This article shows we are going in the direction with how fast super computers are getting.
Yeah, it is called the Internet of Things and is happening right as we speak; the super connectivity between you, and everything around you, with everything else (such as your toaster sending you an "update" to your lawnmower that the toast is done).
As of last year I was reading up on 5G and how no one currently knows what it will look like but the estimated rollout of 5G networks will be roughly ten years from now. All they know is that it is going to be completely different from 2G, 3G, and 4G in that it will do vastly more than just connect your smartphone or tablet to the Internet.
Moore's Law is ultimately about economics/financials, not a max-min chip size as most people erroneously state. That is, R&D spending is through the roof only to produce a product that is smaller, faster, and cheaper. Year after the year the R&D gets more pricey yet the technology gets smaller, faster, and cheaper. At some point, it will cost $Billions to R&D the perfect chip, and it will be 100% free to consumers. That is Moore's Law.
"The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year. Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase. Over the longer term, the rate of increase is a bit more uncertain, although there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years."
G. Moore, 1965. He is talking about circuit density vs. costs.
I really like this video to explain what you were talking about by Ray Kurzweil:
Quote:
Originally Posted by K-Luv
No, computers will not develop "common sense" within a decade. Probably, never.
From what I have read this along with artificial intelligence becoming more intelligence then a human will occur around 2029.
Quote:
Originally Posted by K-Luv
It's funny; people have been talking about the "singularity" for a few decades now that I am aware of. I know it was a big topic with Art Bell back in the early 1990s. We are supposed to be there, now, but it is always "10 to 15 years" out. Always. Ten years from now you will be saying In ten years...
This was from a then groundbreaking paper written to NASA about the singularity in 1993. Notice it says within 30 years and that would put it around 2033 and I argue around 2030 so not that much different. Now Ray Kurzweil argues 2045 and i get why he says that but I think it will still be around 2030. No one I have seen has said 10 to 15 years from 1990.
Here is the paper:
Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended.
What Google wants to do is to create technology that would have the ability to not only "know" what you are looking at but to also know how you feel about it. This is 100% to be used for targeted marketing to consumers. It is no secret, that is how Google makes their money. I mean, ever stop to wonder why all of Google's apps are free? Or how the Android mobile OS got to be so popular (here is a clue, it is not because Android is the best) yet Google is this ginormous company who seems to bring in very large amounts of profits?
I kid you not, look into psychology based technology. Google is seriously only building this stuff to make a buck off what brand of shoes you look at and their ability to predict your likelihood of purchasing those shoes.
True about this and i have no problem if they make money.
Quote:
Originally Posted by K-Luv
Within the science community, the current understanding is that no one actually wants computers that can "think" for themselves.
Look what people said about the internet in 1995. So I would not worry about that now. Once it's here most people wont care.
Quote:
Originally Posted by K-Luv
Cells die. Period. You cannot turn back a cellular clock. What can be done, perhaps, is to develop a method that would all but ensure that not only will all cells produce daughter cells but that the genetic material remains in complete and non-mutated copies. The draw back to this, and nearly all other biological functions, is that the materials need to be brought in from somewhere else in order to build the new cells. Sure, there are some reserve materials "floating" around but what cells cannot produce on their own requires the body to consume... ...nutritious food. Otherwise, this material is going to come from other cells. Like all "mechanical" parts, stuff wears out. Joints loose cartilage. Bones loose calcium. Lungs loose air sacs at high rates every day even if one is not a smoker and breathes nothing but pure, clean, air everyday.
Reverse aging is not turning back any clock. Its just modifying people's genetics. Once we can do that its a rather easy problem to fix. Why we will be able to do that in the 2020's with life 2.0 or the biotech revolution. From what I read I think it will be around 2023 but I admit it could be a range from 2023 to 2029.
It shows nothing of the sort. Faster computing does not equal intelligence.
Reminds me of the old Star Trek where an alien force has caused the Enterprise to go warp 9 in a circle and Scotty says "and at warp 9 we're going nowhere mighty fast."
Faster computers are allowing us to simulate more complicated brains and getting the computers computational ability to that of humans. For example a computer in 1965 was much slower then the I phone why Siri would never work on a computer from back then.
Here is a real world example of what I am talking about:
Simulating 1 second of human brain activity takes 82,944 processors
Sure, this takes unbelievable mountains of computing resources now, but that’s been the case with every problem computer science has tackled since the days of vacuum tubes. At first, only the fastest computers on Earth could play chess or render 3D graphics, but not anymore.
Computing power will continue to ramp up while transistors scale down, which could make true neural simulations possible in real time with supercomputers. Eventually scientists without access to one of the speediest machines in the world will be able to use cluster computing to accomplish similar feats. Maybe one day a single home computer will be capable of the same thing.
Since computers advance exponentially by 2020-2023 a home commuter that costs 1,000 dollars will be able to simulate the human brain.
Ray Kurzweil made a startling prediction in 1999 that appears to be coming true: that by 2023 a $1,000 laptop would have the computing power and storage capacity of a human brain. He also predicted that Moore’s Law, which postulates that the processing capability of a computer doubles every 18 months, would apply for 60 years — until 2025 — giving way then to new paradigms of technological change.
BTW, a new thread on the singularity has been started in a different C-D forum. You might want to address some of the misinformation going on over there. For the most part, they are not tech-minded. Some of them seem to be hearing about this for the first time. http://www.city-data.com/forum/relig...ngularity.html
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