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Old 11-03-2013, 07:24 PM
 
5,463 posts, read 9,614,821 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
Not when it comes to information technology. That is because we take today's computers and build tomorrows computers and they are twice as fast. Then when tomorrow comes we build the next generation of computers again twice as fast. This is not a unknown principal and that is why as far back as the 1980's people who built games and computer programs used that idea to know when to have their game or program on the market. All Ray did was take accepted principals that people used to forecast where computers would be 2-4 years out and did it 20-40 years out.

Now Ray is not the only person who knows this and talks about it but he is the most visible person who does and thus gets a lot of the credit. Another person who I talk about it Verner Vinge.
You're completely missing the point. That has nothing to do with what I was asking.

Are you now saying you might not be as able as you thought to explain how a prediction can be 100% perfect? You said you were convinced after studying it a lot. What was it? Don't go bringing Ray into it. I'm not asking him. I'm asking you.

Okay, now you're talking about principals that people used to forecast where computers would be 2-4 years out, etc. What are the principals that were used?

If you can't explain it in your own words, then just say so. It's not a big deal.
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Old 11-03-2013, 09:31 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,262 posts, read 24,413,875 times
Reputation: 4395
Quote:
Originally Posted by NightBazaar View Post
You're completely missing the point. That has nothing to do with what I was asking.

Are you now saying you might not be as able as you thought to explain how a prediction can be 100% perfect? You said you were convinced after studying it a lot. What was it? Don't go bringing Ray into it. I'm not asking him. I'm asking you.

Okay, now you're talking about principals that people used to forecast where computers would be 2-4 years out, etc. What are the principals that were used?

If you can't explain it in your own words, then just say so. It's not a big deal.
Ok. I will take the time to explain how I evolved to where I am today.

When I was a kid growing up I saw all the same predictions everyone else did from Nostradamus to the short film shows in school and on PBS about what the future "could" be like. I always thought they were cute and enjoyed to watch them but beyond that did not think much about them.

However in the 80's I was into video games, what kid was not then, and I knew about More's Law and how the gaming industry used it to figure out when the best time to release their game was. However beyond that I did not think anything about it. In fact like 99% of the people I thought I would live a normal life and, hopefully, die at the old age of 90 or so.

When I attended grad school in the early 2000,'s things slowly started to change. I would travel a lot for school as I took classes abroad and I would buy magazines to read. One of them was Scientific American. One issue I bought talked about how humans would live to see this century in full due to advancements in genetics. It was by Ray Kurzweil but at the time I did not pay attention to the author only what he had to say. I showed many people the article and talked to even more people about how it would be possible for us to live so long as it made logical sense to me. At the time I was still busy with school and getting my MBA so my research did not go beyond that.

Then when I graduated from grad school I moved back to Pueblo, I was in San Diego, and went to see a movie with my friends. Before the movie started they had a advertisement for a Fathom event on a new documentary coming out about the book Ray Kurzweil wrote called "The Singularity is Near". During the advertisement I clearly remember thinking WTF? However, since all the principals were ones I already knew, like More's Law, it did peak my interest enough to look into it. So I began to study it and to my amazement I found the principals to be sound and they all made logical sense to me. Since then it has become my hobby to study it, more then studying Pueblo and if you can tell from my posts on here that says a lot, as I feel the same as a 20 yo. What I mean is a a typical 20 yo is trying to figure out what to do with his life and in a sense I am doing that same thing to be the best prepared I can be for the coming Singularity that I believe will happen around 2030. The reason is I can see in my life time how computers have gone from taking up entire rooms in the 1970's to the I Phone today and how it has changed life. Plus we now have Google glasses coming out and soon contacts with computers in them so I do not see why it won't advance even further to computers the size of blood cells by the late 2020's and the kind of impact that will have will be nothing short of astonishing.

I hope this answers your question as this is a real lay-men's response to how I heard about the singularity.
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Old 11-03-2013, 09:48 PM
 
5,463 posts, read 9,614,821 times
Reputation: 3555
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
Ok. I will take the time to explain how I evolved to where I am today.

When I was a kid growing up I saw all the same predictions everyone else did from Nostradamus to the short film shows in school and on PBS about what the future "could" be like. I always thought they were cute and enjoyed to watch them but beyond that did not think much about them.

However in the 80's I was into video games, what kid was not then, and I knew about More's Law and how the gaming industry used it to figure out when the best time to release their game was. However beyond that I did not think anything about it. In fact like 99% of the people I thought I would live a normal life and, hopefully, die at the old age of 90 or so.

When I attended grad school in the early 2000,'s things slowly started to change. I would travel a lot for school as I took classes abroad and I would buy magazines to read. One of them was Scientific American. One issue I bought talked about how humans would live to see this century in full due to advancements in genetics. It was by Ray Kurzweil but at the time I did not pay attention to the author only what he had to say. I showed many people the article and talked to even more people about how it would be possible for us to live so long as it made logical sense to me. At the time I was still busy with school and getting my MBA so my research did not go beyond that.

Then when I graduated from grad school I moved back to Pueblo, I was in San Diego, and went to see a movie with my friends. Before the movie started they had a advertisement for a Fathom event on a new documentary coming out about the book Ray Kurzweil wrote called "The Singularity is Near". During the advertisement I clearly remember thinking WTF? However, since all the principals were ones I already knew, like More's Law, it did peak my interest enough to look into it. So I began to study it and to my amazement I found the principals to be sound and they all made logical sense to me. Since then it has become my hobby to study it, more then studying Pueblo and if you can tell from my posts on here that says a lot, as I feel the same as a 20 yo. What I mean is a a typical 20 yo is trying to figure out what to do with his life and in a sense I am doing that same thing to be the best prepared I can be for the coming Singularity that I believe will happen around 2030.

I hope this answers your question as this is a real lay-men's response to how I heard about the singularity.
Thanks. That's an interesting story, but let me try once more a bit easier to follow.

1. How a prediction can be 100% perfect?
Perfect = flawless, always free of errors, it can never be wrong.

2. What are the principals that were used that enable a prediction that's 100% perfect?
I assume that to mean there is more than one principal. What other principals are there besides Moore's Law (which is hardly perfect and flawless)
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Old 11-03-2013, 10:22 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,262 posts, read 24,413,875 times
Reputation: 4395
Quote:
Originally Posted by NightBazaar View Post
Thanks. That's an interesting story, but let me try once more a bit easier to follow.

1. How a prediction can be 100% perfect?
Perfect = flawless, always free of errors, it can never be wrong.

2. What are the principals that were used that enable a prediction that's 100% perfect?
I assume that to mean there is more than one principal. What other principals are there besides Moore's Law (which is hardly perfect and flawless)
It is how information technology advances. You take today's computer to build tomorrow computer and it is twice as fast. Then when tomorrow comes you build the next generation of computers again twice as fast. No matter how much money you put in R&D or how little you can only build the computer twice as fast. That is why the trend is the same through the great depression of the 1930's when there was historically little money for R&D and for both world wars when money for R&D was at a historic high. For example you can do the math to see where computers will be in say 2020. However no matter how much money you spend in R&D it would be impossible to build that computer today as we are building the computers for 2014.

That makes it 100% predictable because nothing will change how fast computers advance and the principal is for everything that is information based. That now includes genetics and biology when historically it did not. Why medicine is advancing so rapidly lately.

I hope this makes sense. Even though I can understand what the principals are enough to follow them and know why the critics are wrong since I am not a scientist myself sometimes I find it hard to articulate it. That is why I tend to post what Ray Kurzweil has said.

Last edited by Josseppie; 11-03-2013 at 10:33 PM..
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Old 11-03-2013, 10:55 PM
 
15,913 posts, read 20,157,064 times
Reputation: 7693
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
I know I get it the boy that cried wolf. But back in the 1980's it was all theoretical. Today car companies have the technology and say it will be on the market by 2020.

Look at this video on youtube:

[youtube]ludicrous Prius/youtube]
As I said earlier, I've seen technologies glowingly talked about for decades and heard numerous times about technologies that "will be on the market by XXXX" anyone else remember:

~ bubble memory?
~ mini-disks?
~ Windows sideshow?
~ Amstrad Emailer?
~ Monorails
~ Mass market flying cars?
~ the machine gun to end all wars?

And the list goes on and on and on....

Since you are enamored to auto's here's some auto technologies that matched the BS hype over driverless vehicles that never made it:

http://news.wyotech.edu/post/2013/07.../#.Unc4LZQiYYQ

When you get older you'll see what I mean about the BS media propaganda and hype put out by companies over technologies that look promising but never make it into the mass consumer market (for whatever reason)...

One of the biggest reasons driverless cars will not become another marketing sensation?

The wet blanket on many promising technologies.... called Patent lawsuits and Copyright lawsuits...

Last edited by plwhit; 11-03-2013 at 11:08 PM..
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Old 11-03-2013, 11:02 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,262 posts, read 24,413,875 times
Reputation: 4395
Quote:
Originally Posted by plwhit View Post
As I said earlier, I've seen technologies glowingly talked about for decades and heard numerous times about technologies that "will be on the market by XXXX" anyone else remember:

~ bubble memory?
~ mini-disks?
~ Windows sideshow?
~ Amstrad Emailer?
~ Monorails
~ Mass market flying cars?

And the list goes on and on and on....

When you get older you'll see what I mean about the BS media propaganda and hype put out by companies over technologies that look promising but never make it into the mass consumer market (for whatever reason)...
I am 40 so I am old enough to remember some of those things you talked about like Monorails and flying cars. In fact I remember going to Disney World and Disney Land in the 1980's and hearing how the monorail and flying cars was the future of America. The problem is those predictions were not based on information technology thus it was and continues to be impossible to predict.

Driver-less cars, on the other hand, is based on computers advanced enough to drive cars themselves. That is information technology and that is why it is predictable.
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Old 11-03-2013, 11:10 PM
 
15,913 posts, read 20,157,064 times
Reputation: 7693
Quote:
Originally Posted by josseppie View Post
i am 40 so i am old enough to remember some of those things you talked about like monorails and flying cars. In fact i remember going to disney world and disney land in the 1980's and hearing how the monorail and flying cars was the future of america. The problem is those predictions were not based on information technology thus it was and continues to be impossible to predict.

Driver-less cars, on the other hand, is based on computers advanced enough to drive cars themselves. That is information technology and that is why it is predictable.
lmao

Has the ideas machine broken down?

http://www.economist.com/news/briefi...ing-increasing
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Old 11-03-2013, 11:20 PM
 
15,913 posts, read 20,157,064 times
Reputation: 7693
Some people seem to think because hardware evolves that automatically means technology increases...

The main problem with this kind of thinking is hardware itself does not create new ideas/concepts, people do.

And as we have seen by the actions of companies such as Apple, Microsoft, Intel, HTC etc technology over the last decade or so has been stifled or put on permanent hold....
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Old 11-03-2013, 11:54 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,262 posts, read 24,413,875 times
Reputation: 4395
Quote:
Originally Posted by plwhit View Post
Honestly I just glanced the article because this is nothing new. There were people around 1900 who called it "the golden age of technology" obviously it was not just like we are no where near the limits of technology and innovation today. I mean just look at this one article as to what is coming in the next few years:

Last year, the market for wearable technology — encompassing everything from hearing aids to wristband pedometers — totaled almost $9 billion. That should climb to $30 billion by 2018, said analyst Shane Walker at IHS Global Insights.

See more at: The Pueblo Chieftain |
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Old 11-03-2013, 11:57 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,262 posts, read 24,413,875 times
Reputation: 4395
Quote:
Originally Posted by plwhit View Post
Some people seem to think because hardware evolves that automatically means technology increases...

The main problem with this kind of thinking is hardware itself does not create new ideas/concepts, people do.

And as we have seen by the actions of companies such as Apple, Microsoft, Intel, HTC etc technology over the last decade or so has been stifled or put on permanent hold....
That brings up a good point. Just because we know where computers will be by 2020 we do not know who will be doing it. Will it be Apple or IBM or another company? That is something that no one can forecast.....
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