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Old 09-18-2012, 04:38 PM
 
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Buddha works in mysterious ways.

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Old 09-18-2012, 04:47 PM
 
Location: where you sip the tea of the breasts of the spinsters of Utica
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Sumbitch is floating ...... someone get some rope!



OK, sorry, back to our regularly scheduled programming.
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Old 09-18-2012, 05:48 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
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Well as usual I missed the joke again.... Maybe one of these times I will get it on the first take!
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Old 09-19-2012, 12:00 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
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Talking The singularity is near. The movie!

I saw the movie last night but I did not have time to watch the extended interviews as they are 3 hours. Tonight I will start to watch the interviews but given how much information each interview has I think its going to take me a few days so I can fully grasp each interview. My goal is to watch one interview a night make notes on it so I can better understand it and have a better editorial on it here. Then once I watch all the interviews I will watch the movie again and see if I see anything that I missed the first time.

Today I will comment on the movie. Now I won't go into detail on the plot as I don't want to ruin it for anyone in case you want to watch it and I HIGHLY recommend it as its great and really the best way to explain what the singularity is and what it means to society. I, also, recommend getting the deluxe DVD edition as it has the DVD with the interviews.

For the most part it follows the book so in my opinion to get the most out of the movie you should read the book first but its not a requirement. I am glad I did as I was able to see his points in the movie and remember back to the chapter I read it in and it helped me put it all together. That is odd for me to say because I hate to read and to be honest its the first book I have read since grad school and I graduated in 2005.

Back to the movie. It really kind of cemented the time line I have been talking about but in a way that shows what we will be doing in a movie setting not just people talking about theories like in the book or in the documentary Transcended Man. By 2015 we should have glasses (or contacts) that will allow us to have AI that we can interact with and have conversations with. That is only 2 years away. Now in the movie they have glasses but I say contacts because in the 30 inventions that will change the world they are already developing contacts that will do the same that the glasses they have in the movie. It will be interesting to see how that pans out in the next 2 years. Then the next mile stones were about 10 and 20 years out and that is what I have said but then again that makes sense as I got my information from his book but again seeing it in a movie setting gives a example of what it will be like not just dry information. The final date is about 30 years from now or 2045 (32 years from 2013) as that is when a single computer will be a billion times more intelligent then all the humans on earth combined. That is a human without computers in them and by then I would be surprised if any human alive did not have some sort of computer inside of them enhancing their abilities.

I still maintain my position that we need to get thru this decade the way we have lived our lives and then by the 2020's changes will come that will allow us to really see changes in the way we live from AI to living longer, looking younger and being able to stay thin. The one aspect that I have changed my opinion on it how soon AI will be here as I now believe that in just a few years it will be advanced enough were we can have AI friend that we can talk to and interact with and that will be something different and I am excited for.

This time I watched the movie with friends and wanted to grasp the overall aspect of it. When I watch the movie again after the interviews I will actually take notes on the timeline and have a better follow up with more details on the actual dates that combines what I learned from the interviews with the movie.

One final comment I want to make:

I happen to see the show The History of the World in 2 hours as it was on H2 a few nights ago. It was the best documentary I have ever seen on how humans advanced. Now this might seem like it has little to do with the future but in my opinion watching that show first then watching the singularity flowed perfectly even though they were done by different people with no connection. Learning about how civilization progressed in the past really makes what Ray Kurzweil prediction about the future even more spot on as what he is saying is nothing new just a progression that has been going on since humans first began to speak 200,000 years before now.



I included this clip of the movie to show what I am talking about. Go to 4 minutes into the video when it talks about how man first began to speak. Language changes everything and as a species allows us to become exponentially smarter. That is the key that makes Ray's law of accelerating returns possible and as this documentary proves its nothing new to humans but has been around for a long time. The difference is now we are at the point that doubling our knowledge will make significant changes in a short period of time and that is why we are going to hit the singularity in 20 to 30 years.

Last edited by Josseppie; 09-19-2012 at 12:13 PM..
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Old 09-19-2012, 12:22 PM
 
Location: Canada
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Maybe another perspective on this topic?


Learning Technologies 2012 - Jaron Lanier - The rise of post-human machine intelligence? - YouTube
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Old 09-19-2012, 12:32 PM
 
Location: Sinking in the Great Salt Lake
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The more I think about this subject, the more I think true AI will eventually be created... but the less Ithink the Singularity will happen... at least not as we envision it today.

Instead, I think humanity will agument themselves directly through implants and genetic engineering, keeping place with technology and being at least a match for, if not far superior to AI when it eventually erupts.

It's "survival of the fittest" at work; if we don't adapt by blending ourselves into new technology to keep up, we will end up as an inferior species and doom our kind to extinction.
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Old 09-19-2012, 01:18 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chango View Post
The more I think about this subject, the more I think true AI will eventually be created... but the less I think the Singularity will happen... at least not as we envision it today.

Instead, I think humanity will augment themselves directly through implants and genetic engineering, keeping place with technology and being at least a match for, if not far superior to AI when it eventually erupts.

It's "survival of the fittest" at work; if we don't adapt by blending ourselves into new technology to keep up, we will end up as an inferior species and doom our kind to extinction.

That is the definition of the technological singularity.....
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Old 09-19-2012, 04:40 PM
 
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There is an assumption here that the human race will survive in enough numbers, with enough technology remaining. to do this. If the Middle East continues on it's current path I have serious doubts that we will make it. Israel/Iran is going to blow up sooner or later and I'm betting sooner. That is going to cause one humdinger of a chain reaction.
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Old 09-19-2012, 05:43 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tek_Freek View Post
There is an assumption here that the human race will survive in enough numbers, with enough technology remaining. to do this. If the Middle East continues on it's current path I have serious doubts that we will make it. Israel/Iran is going to blow up sooner or later and I'm betting sooner. That is going to cause one humdinger of a chain reaction.

That really is a topic for a different thread in a different sub forum but I will say I am not worried about that impacting the coming singularity. During all the wars in the 20th century, even world war 1 and 2, computers advanced at the same predictable rate due to the law of accelerating returns. If there is a major war in the middle east I don't have any reason to think computers wont continue to advance at the same accelerating rate. Plus to be honest once we get close to the singularity it will help stabilize the middle east as it will decentralize power and that is never good for dictatorships.
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Old 09-19-2012, 06:10 PM
 
26,941 posts, read 38,191,714 times
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Actually it is right on topic. You are expecting a singularity that I have serious doubts will ever happen because the next World War will be the last one. And Israel/Iran looks to be the ignition.

Nostradamus may have be more right than I ever expected.

But. (There's always a but) I hope you are right. It would be interesting to be around when the singularity happens, but I doubt I will.
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