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That's not his only blunder, that 2019 predictions about cars and teachers not being humans was made in his 1999 book. In his 2005 book, he made a revision of his predictions, some of which did not come to pass such as:
2010:
--Supercomputers will have the same raw computing power as human brains, though the software to emulate human thinking on those computers does not yet exist. (IBM Sequoia)
---Computers will start to disappear as distinct physical objects, meaning many will have nontraditional shapes or will be embedded in clothing and everyday objects.
---Full-immersion audio-visual virtual reality will exist.
2015:
---By now, it is likely that "clean a house" will be within the capabilities of a household robot.
Also, in his 1999 book he was still making predictions for 2049, 2072 and 2099, which is odd considering that he said it was impossible to make predictions after the singularity which is supposed to occur in 2045. In fact a lot of his predictions from his 1999 book did not come to pass especially his 2009 predictions.
Actually the largest supercomputers have been that powerful now for a few years they are just very expensive and not used for that purpose. If you look around computers are "starting" to disappear as the current paradigm is to wearable computers. That does not mean other computers will go away anytime soon just means the process has started and yes it has. Same thing with full immersion audio visual as Google glass etc. BTW the last was 2015 not 2010 and that is even in the movie the singularity is near.
I found this article on Ray talking about his accomplishments:
To summarize the report, I made 147 predictions for 2009 in ASM. Of these, 115 (78 percent) are entirely correct as of the end of 2009, and another 12 (8 percent) are “essentially correct” — a total of 127 predictions (86 percent) are correct or essentially correct. Since the predictions were made with a specificity of decades (that is, for 2009, 2019, 2029, and so on), a prediction was considered “essentially correct” if it came true in 2010 or 2011. Another 17 (12 percent) are partially correct, and 3 (2 percent) are wrong.
It's just like people who were predicting that the world would end by the year 2000. Then 2008. Now, it's what 2016? 2024?
The singularity is an ideological belief, not a futuristic certainty. This is no such thing as a futuristic certainty, because, by definition, it's impossible to be certain about something that hasn't happened yet.
Again apples to oranges. Predicting "the end of the world" is not information technology thus can not be predicted.
Honestly I think you are making the singularity out more then it is. Forget the word for a moment as that makes it sound like some cosmic event.
Here is what will happen by 2030:
1) Computers will continue to advance exponentially so they will
A) Be the size of a blood cell and have thousands of times more processing capability then all of NASA in
the 1960's.
B) AI will be as intelligent as a human in 2029 and be more intelligent then a human in 2030.
The only thing that could stop this would be if computers stopped advancing exponentially before that time. I argue they will not.
1) Computers will continue to advance exponentially so they will
A) Be the size of a blood cell and have thousands of times more processing capability then all of NASA in
the 1960's.
B) AI will be as intelligent as a human in 2029 and be more intelligent then a human in 2030.
The only thing that could stop this would be if computers stopped advancing exponentially before that time. I argue they will not.
A) Again, we don't yet know if that's physically possible. There might be a minimal size necessary for computers to function.
B) Again, we don't fully understand human intelligence so it's impossible to predict two things will be equivalent when we don't even understand one of them. This would be like stating you know there's a planet exactly like earth that exists 500 mil light years away. There might be, but we simply don't have the ability to see planets that far away in any detail, much like we don't have the ability to predict the future with any great detail.
We don't know enough about how the mind works to fully understand it, so it's impossible to know if computers will be equivalent. Most evidence indicates the human mind works differently than IT systems do.
My point is that people have been trying to predict the future throughout recorded human history. Very rarely have such predictions been accurate, and even you acknowledge that some predictions of the singularity have been wrong.
I'll end this discussion with an adaptation of Buddhism. I'm not a Buddhist, but do admire many of it's principles:
The present moment is all we have. The past has already happened: there's nothing we can do to change it. With the exception of purely cyclical occurrences like the sun rising, the future is unknowable. Since we can't change the past there's no sense in ruminating on it, and since we can't know the future there's no sense in being anxious about it. That leaves us with the present moment, which is always with us, and all we ever have.
Actually the largest supercomputers have been that powerful now for a few years they are just very expensive and not used for that purpose. If you look around computers are "starting" to disappear as the current paradigm is to wearable computers. That does not mean other computers will go away anytime soon just means the process has started and yes it has. Same thing with full immersion audio visual as Google glass etc. BTW the last was 2015 not 2010 and that is even in the movie the singularity is near.
I found this article on Ray talking about his accomplishments:
To summarize the report, I made 147 predictions for 2009 in ASM. Of these, 115 (78 percent) are entirely correct as of the end of 2009, and another 12 (8 percent) are “essentially correct” — a total of 127 predictions (86 percent) are correct or essentially correct. Since the predictions were made with a specificity of decades (that is, for 2009, 2019, 2029, and so on), a prediction was considered “essentially correct” if it came true in 2010 or 2011. Another 17 (12 percent) are partially correct, and 3 (2 percent) are wrong.
I did a google search and all I found was info about how they managed to get computers with human brain computing power but only for a millisecond and those were 2013 and 2014 articles.
I did a google search and all I found was info about how they managed to get computers with human brain computing power but only for a millisecond and those were 2013 and 2014 articles.
If you go back before that the largest and most expensive super computers in the world could theoretically do it. However they were very expensive and not used for that. Now by 2019 is when a computer that costs $1,000 will be able to simulate the human brain. Interestingly that is when the blue brain projects expects to finish reverse engineering the brain.
If you go back before that the largest and most expensive super computers in the world could theoretically do it. However they were very expensive and not used for that. Now by 2019 is when a computer that costs $1,000 will be able to simulate the human brain. Interestingly that is when the blue brain projects expects to finish reverse engineering the brain.
From what I understand 2019 is the year they finish mapping the brain, reversed engineering is supposed to come much later; believe Kurzweil even has the date of 2029.
From what I understand 2019 is the year they finish mapping the brain, reversed engineering is supposed to come much later; believe Kurzweil even has the date of 2029.
You are a little confused on it. I was at first too as its a little complicated.
2019:
The year they reverse engineer the brain. Actually if you want to get technical its a range from 2019 to 2023.
The year a computer that costs $1,000 dollars can simulate the human brain.
2029:
That is the year AI becomes as intelligent as a single human.
A) Again, we don't yet know if that's physically possible. There might be a minimal size necessary for computers to function.
People have been saying this since I was a kid in the 1980's. Everything points to nanotechnology and that we are no where near the limit of what it can do.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apathizer
B) Again, we don't fully understand human intelligence so it's impossible to predict two things will be equivalent when we don't even understand one of them. This would be like stating you know there's a planet exactly like earth that exists 500 mil light years away. There might be, but we simply don't have the ability to see planets that far away in any detail, much like we don't have the ability to predict the future with any great detail.
We don't know enough about how the mind works to fully understand it, so it's impossible to know if computers will be equivalent. Most evidence indicates the human mind works differently than IT systems do.
We know enough to understand what it takes to simulate it and what it will take to equal the intelligence. What we do not now know we will know in the next 5-8 years.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apathizer
My point is that people have been trying to predict the future throughout recorded human history. Very rarely have such predictions been accurate, and even you acknowledge that some predictions of the singularity have been wrong.
It was not until the 1960's we had Moore's law and not until the 1980's the long term implications where understood and not until the 1990's the first papers and books published on the topic. So before that while people tried to predict the future it was not based on information technology and how it advanced thus they were wrong most if not all of the time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apathizer
I'll end this discussion with an adaptation of Buddhism. I'm not a Buddhist, but do admire many of it's principles:
The present moment is all we have. The past has already happened: there's nothing we can do to change it. With the exception of purely cyclical occurrences like the sun rising, the future is unknowable. Since we can't change the past there's no sense in ruminating on it, and since we can't know the future there's no sense in being anxious about it. That leaves us with the present moment, which is always with us, and all we ever have.
I would agree that is true for most things not information technology.
That is correct. I actually forgot about that. Ray actually made a joke about this saying for once he is the pessimistic one as he predicted 2029 and the director of the blue brain project said a range of 2019-2023 but more then likely 2019. He came up with this because while computers can not currently simulate the entire brain they can do parts of the brain like the Cerebellum. Then in 2019 they will merge it all together to have one big simulation.
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