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Old 09-20-2012, 08:06 AM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
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I am 100% convinced that the singularity will be here in 20 to 30 years.
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Old 09-20-2012, 03:12 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BIMBAM View Post

I watched this entire video and he tried to make a lot of points about different things but he never proved anything (although his story about Turing was good but I disagree about his conclusion on the test itself) he just kind of rambled on and on and on and I only got two main things from his speech:

1) He thinks the internet and coming singularity will mean the loss of jobs

2) They should do the best job the can in designing the systems.

On the first point its hard to know what the singularity will mean to humans and how we will work in the second half of this century. Then again if you would of told people living in 1900 what was going to happen many of them would of had the same concerns about jobs. On his second point. Ya I hope they design the best system they can but that does not mean as we get more advanced better and improved systems will be developed. Just look at cell phones. No one carries around the brick phone anymore and the smart phone is nothing like the design of the first cell phones.

In the end I give this video 1/2 star out of 5 and I am being generous. It did not do anything to increase my knowledge on the coming singularity or give a logical reason why it wont come. I just learned why he does not like the internet and companies like Facebook and Wiki. I can talk to some of my friends for that.
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Old 09-22-2012, 10:52 AM
 
Location: Victoria TX
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The main problem I have with the whole concept is that it is predicated on an assumption that Virtue will prevail, and that somehow the power of technology will sidestep falling into the same evil hands that power has unerringly gravitated into in the historical past and the present and all foreseeable future trends.
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Old 09-22-2012, 11:25 AM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
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Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post
The main problem I have with the whole concept is that it is predicated on an assumption that Virtue will prevail, and that somehow the power of technology will sidestep falling into the same evil hands that power has unerringly gravitated into in the historical past and the present and all foreseeable future trends.
Technology is a double edged sword and we must watch it. That does not mean society wont advance, we are advancing at a exponential rate, it just means we have to have the proper safe guards set up to make sure we can be as safe as we can. Am I a little nervous about what will happen after the singularity comes? Sure I am as we have no way to know what life will be like but the thing is the singularity is fast approaching and nothing we can do will stop it or even slow it down. That is why I am doing as much research I can so I can have some basic understanding of what to expect in the next 10 to 20 years.
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Old 09-22-2012, 01:35 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
Technology is a double edged sword and we must watch it. That does not mean society wont advance, we are advancing at a exponential rate, it just means we have to have the proper safe guards set up to make sure we can be as safe as we can. Am I a little nervous about what will happen after the singularity comes? Sure I am as we have no way to know what life will be like but the thing is the singularity is fast approaching and nothing we can do will stop it or even slow it down. That is why I am doing as much research I can so I can have some basic understanding of what to expect in the next 10 to 20 years.
Up to now, th view you've generally expressed has been optimistic. Nothing wrong with that, but I'm glad that you do have some concern, which is understandable, to be nervous about. And that's a good thing. It's important to consider what could go terribly wrong as well as what rewarding benefits could be achieved a double-edged sword. Jtur88 raises a very good point.

You're doing as much research you can so you can have some basic understanding of what to expect in the next 10 to 20 years. That's great. Let's suppose 10 to 20 years from now it still looks like it's headed in a positive direction, and the technology has passed the point of human knowledge, or at least human ability, and computer technology has achieved artificial intelligence that far exceeds human intelligence. And even though it all looks great, let's suppose the AI, for some unknown or unforeseen reason decides to head into a direction we wouldn't want it to. There's not much that can be done about it at that point. The super AI is completely autonomous and no longer in our control. All the safeguards in the world might not prevent that from happening because it has by then taken on a mind of its own.

The problem isn't the singularity in and by itself. It's what takes place before it passes that point and achieves fully autonomous AI. All it would take is a small hidden code, either by mistake or deliberate, to completely change the scenario from a beneficial outcome to a pretty grim outcome, which may not become active until after the singularity. By then it would be too late to do anything about it. Such a system could just as easily install its own safeguards to prevent anyone from meddling or attempting to shut it down.

As jtur indicated, the history of human beings hasn't always been favorable, especially with new technologies. Just look back at the history of atomic energy. While we do reap some incredible rewards, one of the first things to emerge were atomic and nuclear bombs. The world still has enough nuclear bombs to wipe out much of the planet. That's not including 'new' countries that are developing their own nuclear bombs today. Any survivors would face a very different and difficult world than we enjoy and take for granted today. The world is still polluting the planet, nations still engage in warfare, and people still suffer from disease and starvation. Will things be any different (better) in 10 to 20 years from now? I hope so, but right now it doesn't look very likely.

I have to agree with what you said though, we don't know what would happen if the technological singularity takes place.
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Old 09-22-2012, 03:23 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,102 posts, read 20,365,466 times
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I have been more optimistic then I am pessimistic and that is because by nature I am a optimistic person. The problem is right now we cant come up with safe guards for most of the problems we will face because well we don't know what they will be. It would be like asking scientists in the 19th century to come up with ideas on how to stop internet viruses. They would not have a clue since they would not even know what a computer is. So I figure when the time is right we will come up with how to do it and that is why for the most part I do not worry about it now. But yes I can be nervous because there is no way we can no what life will be like after the singularity but I think it will be way better then it is now and that is why I say my dream is to spend new years 2100 on the moon....
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Old 09-26-2012, 08:08 PM
 
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Envisioning Technology 2012 | Envisioning Technology

Presents a sort of timeline towards singularity. Some elements seems overly optimistic to me. For certain, it seems life thirty years from now will be vastly different to how we live now. I cannot imagine what the later years of those being born now will be like.
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Old 09-27-2012, 11:16 AM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,102 posts, read 20,365,466 times
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Thanks for posting the table!

I am studying it and from what I see it makes perfect sense and follows the path of exponential advancement. Like I have said: live life like we have this decade and in the 2020's changes will come that will change everything and that is why I call that decade the pre-singularity.
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Old 11-28-2012, 01:46 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
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Some good research that could allow us to live for a VERY VERY VERY long time!

Latest stem cell research could lead to immortality - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)


It will be here in our lifetime....
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Old 11-28-2012, 08:41 PM
 
Location: where you sip the tea of the breasts of the spinsters of Utica
8,305 posts, read 11,820,037 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
Some good research that could allow us to live for a VERY VERY VERY long time!

Latest stem cell research could lead to immortality - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)


It will be here in our lifetime....
I don't think it's going to be quite that easy - after all, we already have immortal human cells ..... they're called "cancers". But who knows, maybe it will turn out to be easy to avoid tumor growth.
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