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I still hold the belief that it will never happen for the average citizen. Those in power (and they are whether you choose to believe so or not) will NOT allow anyone except them and their cohorts to use longevity drugs or the components required to reach Singularity.
They stand to lose too much to allow it to happen. Just like Big Oil.
It will be expensive at first but as with any technology the price will go down and improve. No one can stop it. That has people on the far right and far left scared and in my opinion one reason they act like they do. The one thing they have in common is they don't like change and the change they see coming they don't like and know they can't stop it. They interviewed someone in the movie who talked about that very issue.
I have not read up on him extensively, but I know of him more for his life extension ideas; I believe he takes upward of 60+ nutritional supplements a day in an effort to extend his life long enough to witness the singularity.
P.S. - he's mentioned a lot on the longecity website (formerly the immortality institute).
Lets be honest. Today we are all day to day. That has been and continues to be the reality for the human species. That being said the younger you are the better chance you have to make it long enough to see the singularity. Unfortunately for Ray he is in his 60's and has geneticis against him as his dad died early with a heart attack. He had to take these measures to give him a better chance to make it. Depending on a persons genetics they can be in their 60's and take care of themselves the conventional way and make it to the 2020's when new techniques will be available, such as reverse aging and eliminating the so called fat gene, allowing them to be young enough to see the singularity. Someone my age, I'm 40 tomorrow, has even less to worry about. So sure I watch what I eat and exercise but that is all as I will only be in my 50's in the 2020's and that is still young.
It's like the boy that cried wolf. 60 years ago very little was known about how information technology advanced. Mores law was not developed till the 1960's and it's implications were not fully understood till the late 1980's and early 1990's when the groundbreaking paper was written and presented to NASA that included the singularity. Another pitfall is when futurists talk about anything other then information technology when discussing the future. About a month ago I was reading a article that did just that. I never posted it because while it was fun and sold magazines many of their predictions were nothing more then guess work and most will end up being wrong. The only thing that can be predicted is how information technology will advance and that can now be predicted with 100% accuracy well till the singularity in 2045 as that is when all the models break down and why engineers use that date.
Trust me I know how it sounds. I had the same misgivings 5 years ago when I first heard it but since I have studied it and understand that we can predict how information technology will advance and the implications that will have on society. I, also, understand why we can't speed it up or slow it down. One thing that most people don't realize is today we have supercomputers that are powerful enough to simulate the human brain and we have computers small enough to fit in our body. Now it's only a matter of time till we improve the technology to a point we put computers inside us that intilligent. That will really be in full swing in the 2020's, not that long from now. I turn 40 tomorrow. By the time I turn 50 in 2023 I will be biologically in my early 20s and living in a much different world. That is only 10 years away.
Footnote: The actual timeline I have read is 10-15 years so to be accurate I should say when I'm 50-55. However things I have read tend to have me lean towards the 10 year timeline but I am a optimist so I wanted to post the realist timeline as well as I should be as honest as I can.
It's nice to see such conviction and optimism, but I won't be holding my breath. Even if they did discover a form to regenerate your body 20 or so years in 2023, I don't think the technology would be made available until 10 years or more. Every time there's a new medical discovery or treatment they test it out for years before it goes public in an effort to see whether it's safe enough or what type of side effects such a procedure or treatment might have as the years go by.
It's nice to see such conviction and optimism, but I won't be holding my breath. Even if they did discover a form to regenerate your body 20 or so years in 2023, I don't think the technology would be made available until 10 years or more. Every time there's a new medical discovery or treatment they test it out for years before it goes public in an effort to see whether it's safe enough or what type of side effects such a procedure or treatment might have as the years go by.
Agreed things are going to have to change when it comes to how fast drugs and procedures are approved and I think they will. Just look at how fast the new cancer and HIV drugs are being approved. In fact a new HIV drug that could actually cure a person got fast tracked into clinical trials.
As far as the 10 year forecast on turning off the fat gene and reverse aging that includes the study time as they are working on the drugs now.
Agreed things are going to have to change when it comes to how fast drugs and procedures are approved and I think they will. Just look at how fast the new cancer and HIV drugs are being approved. In fact a new HIV drug that could actually cure a person got fast tracked into clinical trials.
As far as the 10 year forecast on turning off the fat gene and reverse aging that includes the study time as they are working on the drugs now.
I think this is different, you're talking about people living 20+ years or more, things would have to change such as people having less kids to prevent overpopulation and strain on resources; I'm sure people will like the government telling them how many kids to have.
As for the research, as far as I know all research has been done on small animals thus far (correct me if I'm wrong) which doesn't always have a successful transition to higher animals or humans (what I have been told by someone who works with pharmaceuticals). This is why I don't believe in the 10 year prediction, if they haven't even made much of a breakthrough in mice I think it'll take take a while before reaching for study in higher animals and humans.
Last night I read where Venor Vinge predicts the singularity will happen by 2030. I watched a video and listened to what he had to say and it made a lot of sense to me. Because of this I have a new timeline on how I think the singularity will develop. To be honest I had been wondering if the 2045 date was a little to conservative but now I have more evidence to think that it is.
Now till 2020:
We will see some changes but this will be the last decade before the major changes kick in. I consider this to be the final good bye to how we currently live.
2020 to 2030: I call this pre singularity.
This decade we will start to see some major changes. The Blue Brain Project will have been completed in 2019 meaning the brain will have been completely reversed engineered and simulations completed so our understanding of the brain will be way more then it is now. Computers that are fast enough to simulate the human brain will be cheap enough for the public to buy. Because of this we will do things that we can only imagine today such as virtual reality and robots that seem to be like humans. The fast change that comes with the singularity will not be here yet but the changes will be fast enough to make it different then any decade before.
There is a book about what it could be like during the pre singularity called Rainbows End by Vernor Vinge and I want to read it.
2030 to 2060: The Singularity
Once the singularity arrives it will take years for it to really change life on earth. From my studies two dates stand out: 2030 and 2045.
Given what is going on with Mores Law and other research projects like the Blue Brain Project I think its likely the singularity will start around 2030 and ramp up so its at the peak by 2045. Given how things have changed in the past 15 years is a extremely fast rate for what we will see. After 2045 or so its nearly impossible to know what life will be like other then it will be completely different then it is now.
To quote Betty Davis "Fasten your seat belt, its going to be a bumpy night."
I am 17 years old. I can barely keep up with technology as it is. I am interested, but my lack of ability to explore has left me in the early 2010's with technology. The pre-singularity should occur just as I am graduating college.
I think this is different, you're talking about people living 20+ years or more, things would have to change such as people having less kids to prevent overpopulation and strain on resources; I'm sure people will like the government telling them how many kids to have.
As for the research, as far as I know all research has been done on small animals thus far (correct me if I'm wrong) which doesn't always have a successful transition to higher animals or humans (what I have been told by someone who works with pharmaceuticals). This is why I don't believe in the 10 year prediction, if they haven't even made much of a breakthrough in mice I think it'll take take a while before reaching for study in higher animals and humans.
I am not worried about over population. I do think we will see some significant growth in the "emerging mega regions" and that includes the front range mega region where I live. Personally I welcome the growth but I like large urban centers. Always have.
As far as the research. From what I have read pharmaceutical companies as well as medical research facilities are past the animal testing and working on how to turn off the fat gene and reverse aging in humans. My dream would to have it available by the time I turn 50 in 2023. However I am ok with them developing it by the time I turn 55 as well. In fact if its not done by 2023 I'm pretty sure it will be done by 2024 as that is the date I have heard Ray Kurzweil talk about.
Last edited by Josseppie; 05-13-2013 at 07:22 AM..
I am 17 years old. I can barely keep up with technology as it is. I am interested, but my lack of ability to explore has left me in the early 2010's with technology. The pre-singularity should occur just as I am graduating college.
Thanks for posting!
You make a good point. The younger generations can see that society is changing much faster today then the older generations. I mean the change you have seen since you started high school must be amazing.
One of the big things I worry about is technological unemployment and another is by the time students get degrees the field they are studying will be past them or their degree will be obsolete altogether. Plus as we have talked about regulatory agencies, like the FDA, can't keep up with how fast technology is changing.
I saw this interview from Singularity University that touched this very subject so I thought I would post it here.
I am not worried about over population. I do think we will see some significant growth in the "emerging mega regions" and that includes the front range mega region where I live. Personally I welcome the growth but I like large urban centers. Always have.
As far as the research. From what I have read pharmaceutical companies as well as medical research facilities are past the animal testing and working on how to turn off the fat gene and reverse aging in humans. My dream would to have it available by the time I turn 50 in 2023. However I am ok with them developing it by the time I turn 55 as well. In fact if its not done by 2023 I'm pretty sure it will be done by 2024 as that is the date I have heard Ray Kurzweil talk about.
If they had moved passed animal testing don't you think it would have been huge news? The only research I remember reading was that they had managed to extend mice life by 12% (from their average) through the use of certain amino acids, don't think that would translate to 20+ years in humans? In the study the mice were already old, so it's unclear if these compounds would help younger individuals. I remember a few years back it was also believed that resveratrol would be the miracle drug/supplement but subsequent studies showed that it could only extend the life of obese or unhealthy mice/rats not healthy ones.
Anyway, Happy Birthday!
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