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Old 03-22-2012, 12:39 AM
 
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If any of you have a PS3 or 360, I recommend playing Deus Ex Human Revolution. It's an excellent game that revolves around advances made in 'human augmentation', ie integrating robotic and AI elements into humans, and the possible ramifications of it to governments and corporations, how it could be abused, how those who can afford the augmentations would have distinct advantages vs those who don't, thereby creating class structures, etc. Yeah, it's just fictional story in a game, but I found very thought provoking, moreso because this stuff might be possible in the not too distant future.



Deus Ex Human Revolution E3 2010 Trailer [HD] - YouTube
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Old 03-22-2012, 11:27 AM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,102 posts, read 20,357,583 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NightBazaar View Post
Sure, computers process information in relation to their capability. BUT.... they have to have the information to process.
That is where the Blue Brain Project comes in as least as far as AI is concerned.



Quote:
Originally Posted by NightBazaar View Post
If "Ollie" should be marketed in the next few years, you might want to check the price tag first. You also might want to be sure all the bugs are worked out so "Ollie" doesn't have an accidental malfunction and turn out like Ash, or wait for a later version of your hot bot.
As with any new technology it will start out expensive and have less features. In time the technology will improve and will get more affordable. I am sure I wont be one of the first people with one but I wont be one of the last either.
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Old 03-22-2012, 02:51 PM
 
4,987 posts, read 7,766,432 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
That is where the Blue Brain Project comes in as least as far as AI is concerned.
Sure, but you seem certain it means it'll happen in the next few years. If you'd looked at the videos I posted earlier, you'll see that (1) it's talking about mapping, and (2) could take up to a 100 or more years to complete. It could be less time than that, but one knows exactly how long it will take. So far as I can tell, what has been mapped out is the brain stem. It gets incredibly more complex beyond that. I'm not saying it can't be done, just saying I think you might be unrealistically optimistic. Even when it is completed, there's no guarantee the computerized mapping will be able to function like a human brain.

The Blue Brain Project is hoping for funding later this year to continue, but considering the global economy at present, it's hard to say. In any case, that's just mapping out the brain. It doesn't mean advanced AI androids will be on the shelf at Bots-R-Us in the next few years, or even the next 10-20 years.


Quote:
As with any new technology it will start out expensive and have less features. In time the technology will improve and will get more affordable. I am sure I wont be one of the first people with one but I wont be one of the last either.
I agree. New technologies do tend to start out pretty expensive. I remember when the first hand-held calculators went on sale. It used a stylus wired to the unit to tap metal 'keys', and could only do basic math. Price was almost $200. When Apple II computers first hit the market, they were priced at about $1300 which had 4k memory. Graphics were clunky lines of pixel boxes, and sound were beeps from a built-in speaker. The calculator dates back to the early 1970s, and the Apple II dates back to around 1977.

Sure, things have changed a lot since then, and prices did drop for personal computers, thanks to the Commodore 64 computers. But not everything drops in price. Automobiles are much more expensive. Airfare to fly to SE Asia was as low as $300 for economy class a bit more than 20 years ago. Today, prices are hovering at around $2000+ with fewer perks. There can be loads of reasons why some things drop in price and others increase in prices. The days of personal computers which could be had for as low as $99.95 (TS-1000 with 2k memory) are long gone. While computers today are much more powerful, prices are much higher in comparison, although prices drop for a given model is to be discontinued.

Honda's Asimo robot initially rented out for $1 million in the early 2000s. By 2003, it rented for $20,000 per appearance. Exactly how much has been spent on developing Asimo models is unknown since Honda seems reluctant to say, other than the value is "priceless". While Asimo has helped advance robotic technology, as an income generator, it's pretty much of a failure.
HONDA CARS, PLANES, ROBOTS AND RACING; HYBRIDS, FUEL CELLS CARS, ASIMO AND HONDAJET - Japan | Facts and Details

I think it's fair to say that if and when a truly advanced autonomous android (such as you envision) is developed, the price tag on it could well be in the many millions of dollars. Even with popular interest in such a product, assuming that the price decreases due to more sales, it's still likely to be far out of range of affordability for most people. And that's looking at it optimistically. I think long before such bots would become commonplace, we'll need to resolve many other major problem. I do however think it's quite possible to see an increase in the line of specialty bots, or even multipurpose bots in households, service and industry. And I suspect we'll see an increase of bots designed for military and law enforcement. For the sake of personal entertainment though, why bother with the the muss and fuss and expense of a bot, when you could just as easily head down to the local Recall Clinic for the memory implant of a lifetime! Recall! Recall! Recall!
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Old 03-23-2012, 12:13 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,102 posts, read 20,357,583 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NightBazaar View Post
Sure, but you seem certain it means it'll happen in the next few years. If you'd looked at the videos I posted earlier, you'll see that (1) it's talking about mapping, and (2) could take up to a 100 or more years to complete. It could be less time than that, but one knows exactly how long it will take. So far as I can tell, what has been mapped out is the brain stem. It gets incredibly more complex beyond that. I'm not saying it can't be done, just saying I think you might be unrealistically optimistic. Even when it is completed, there's no guarantee the computerized mapping will be able to function like a human brain.

The Blue Brain Project is hoping for funding later this year to continue, but considering the global economy at present, it's hard to say. In any case, that's just mapping out the brain. It doesn't mean advanced AI androids will be on the shelf at Bots-R-Us in the next few years, or even the next 10-20 years.
I do not know where you come up with 100 years to finish it? This is from Wiki and I have seen the videos where Henry Markram is speaking that back it up:

A longer term goal is to build a detailed, functional simulation of the physiological processes in the human brain: "It is not impossible to build a human brain and we can do it in 10 years," Henry Markram, director of the Blue Brain Project said in 2009 at the Ted Conference in Oxford.

The would put it at 2019 and from what I read they are on track to meet that goal.

The link: Blue Brain Project - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Plus it is not just mapping out the brain but as you see they will have a working simulation of the brain down to the molecular level. That will allow scientists to come up with a robot with AI that can be extremely advanced. Much more then you see now and with how computers are advancing 10 to 20 years out does fit the mathematical models.


Quote:
Originally Posted by NightBazaar View Post
I agree. New technologies do tend to start out pretty expensive. I remember when the first hand-held calculators went on sale. It used a stylus wired to the unit to tap metal 'keys', and could only do basic math. Price was almost $200. When Apple II computers first hit the market, they were priced at about $1300 which had 4k memory. Graphics were clunky lines of pixel boxes, and sound were beeps from a built-in speaker. The calculator dates back to the early 1970s, and the Apple II dates back to around 1977.

Sure, things have changed a lot since then, and prices did drop for personal computers, thanks to the Commodore 64 computers. But not everything drops in price. Automobiles are much more expensive. Airfare to fly to SE Asia was as low as $300 for economy class a bit more than 20 years ago. Today, prices are hovering at around $2000+ with fewer perks. There can be loads of reasons why some things drop in price and others increase in prices. The days of personal computers which could be had for as low as $99.95 (TS-1000 with 2k memory) are long gone. While computers today are much more powerful, prices are much higher in comparison, although prices drop for a given model is to be discontinued.

Honda's Asimo robot initially rented out for $1 million in the early 2000s. By 2003, it rented for $20,000 per appearance. Exactly how much has been spent on developing Asimo models is unknown since Honda seems reluctant to say, other than the value is "priceless". While Asimo has helped advance robotic technology, as an income generator, it's pretty much of a failure.
HONDA CARS, PLANES, ROBOTS AND RACING; HYBRIDS, FUEL CELLS CARS, ASIMO AND HONDAJET - Japan | Facts and Details

I think it's fair to say that if and when a truly advanced autonomous android (such as you envision) is developed, the price tag on it could well be in the many millions of dollars. Even with popular interest in such a product, assuming that the price decreases due to more sales, it's still likely to be far out of range of affordability for most people. And that's looking at it optimistically. I think long before such bots would become commonplace, we'll need to resolve many other major problem. I do however think it's quite possible to see an increase in the line of specialty bots, or even multipurpose bots in households, service and industry. And I suspect we'll see an increase of bots designed for military and law enforcement. For the sake of personal entertainment though, why bother with the the muss and fuss and expense of a bot, when you could just as easily head down to the local Recall Clinic for the memory implant of a lifetime! Recall! Recall! Recall!
I don't think it will be as expensive as you envision as the cost for a million instructions per second (MIPS) is going down exponentially but how much will it cost? I won't even venture a guess as I have no idea what I can tell you is I would be willing to spend a fair amount of money if I got "Ollie". I could see my self spending 10,000 or 20,000 dollars easy.
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Old 03-23-2012, 04:13 PM
 
4,987 posts, read 7,766,432 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
I do not know where you come up with 100 years to finish it?
Please note that I did not say it will take 100 years, but that it could take up to that, or maybe longer. It leaves room that it could take less than that too. As to where I came up with it, please see Page 3, Post 30, 2nd video entitled "The Blue Brain Project". The point that had been made is that it is not known exactly how long it will take, but the thought expressed at 4:20 on in the video, is that it may take 10 years to be able to manipulate an animal's behavior (he doesn't say what kind of animal), and that it could take 40, 50 or 100 years to have what I assume would be a working model of a human brain. I'd also recommend you take another look at the 1st video I posted as well.


Quote:
This is from Wiki and I have seen the videos where Henry Markram is speaking that back it up:

A longer term goal is to build a detailed, functional simulation of the physiological processes in the human brain: "It is not impossible to build a human brain and we can do it in 10 years," Henry Markram, director of the Blue Brain Project said in 2009 at the Ted Conference in Oxford.

The would put it at 2019 and from what I read they are on track to meet that goal.


The link: Blue Brain Project - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
That's an overly optimistic estimate. While it might not be impossible, that doesn't mean it's absolute. What do you expect him to say? Of course he's going to give the shortest estimate of time. They need the funding to continue the project. You're quoting Markham from the conference in 2009. The video I posted is from the International Supercomputing Conference in 2011.




Quote:
Plus it is not just mapping out the brain but as you see they will have a working simulation of the brain down to the molecular level. That will allow scientists to come up with a robot with AI that can be extremely advanced. Much more then you see now and with how computers are advancing 10 to 20 years out does fit the mathematical models.

Yes, it IS about mapping! Please notice it is about models. They can't do diddly squat without first mapping. Markham clearly states that he gets into trouble (critized) for making predictions such as the "10 years", and that it depends on the funding. If the funding is not sufficicient, the project could take longer.


Also note (at about 3:35) that he says they don't know because they haven't done certain experiments yet. Further, the "robots" Markham is talking about appears to just be referring to a successful digital on-screen simulation of the model. He is not necessarily talking about a physical android, although that kind of development could potentially happen later on at some unknown point in the future.


At 5:21 in the video, Markham clearly states that even at a million neurons and a billion synapses (he's showing 360,000), that is hitting the limitation of any visualization of technology today. In other words, there is still a very long way to go.


Please note the chart at 6:18 in the video. It shows, depending on if there is funding and such a supercomputer can be built (much more powerful than any present day supercomputer), that the outline for the project is to reach that of a rat brain by 2023. I will admit that would be an amazing accomplishment, but it's still far from a human brain. You might want to try to focus and pay closer attention to some of the details about Project Blue Brain.



Quote:
I don't think it will be as expensive as you envision as the cost for a million instructions per second (MIPS) is going down exponentially but how much will it cost? I won't even venture a guess as I have no idea what I can tell you is I would be willing to spend a fair amount of money if I got "Ollie". I could see my self spending 10,000 or 20,000 dollars easy.
Good luck on spending $10,000 to $20,000 dollars for Ollie. We're talking about supercomputers that are much more powerful than any today. The most powerful supercomputer in the world today is Japan's Fujitsu-K. I don't know what it cost to build it, but it can be compared to at least 1 million desktop computers, can crunch about 10.51 quadrillion calculations per second and has annual operating costs at about $10 million per year. It also uses enough power to power about 10,000 surburban homes.

But you'd be willing to spend $10,000 to $20,000 for an android that you can date, when there are who knows how many millions kids around the world that are dying from starvation and diseases? By the time something like Ollie can be affordable enough to be purchased from Futurama's Bots-R-Us, you could either be long dead, or if still alive, so old that you'd have completely forgotten why you even wanted on in the first place.

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Old 03-24-2012, 02:30 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,102 posts, read 20,357,583 times
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Sure they are mapping it first but the main goal of the project is not a map but a complete simulation down to the molecular level. Every time I have seen Henry Markram speak, even in the latest documentaries, he says they will be done by 2019 and I have no reason not to believe him. So I could see saying up to 10 years (that would put it at 2022) but to say up to 100 years would be just as wrong as saying up to 1 million years. Sure I said up to but the timetable is no where near that. He, also, states that we will learn a lot from the project well before it is finished.

Overall I think this will be a game changer and that is why I say it is the most important scientific project in the history of human kind.
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Old 03-24-2012, 05:00 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,102 posts, read 20,357,583 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NightBazaar View Post


Good luck on spending $10,000 to $20,000 dollars for Ollie. We're talking about supercomputers that are much more powerful than any today. The most powerful supercomputer in the world today is Japan's Fujitsu-K. I don't know what it cost to build it, but it can be compared to at least 1 million desktop computers, can crunch about 10.51 quadrillion calculations per second and has annual operating costs at about $10 million per year. It also uses enough power to power about 10,000 surburban homes.

But you'd be willing to spend $10,000 to $20,000 for an android that you can date, when there are who knows how many millions kids around the world that are dying from starvation and diseases? By the time something like Ollie can be affordable enough to be purchased from Futurama's Bots-R-Us, you could either be long dead, or if still alive, so old that you'd have completely forgotten why you even wanted on in the first place.

I forgot to address this.

Again you forget about exponential growth. That is making all of this possible in our lifetime.

I want to address your comment about kids starving in the world. While its sad and I do donate money to different causes I don't understand why I should feel guilty because I can afford luxury items. For example I just bought a Mercedes ML 500. Should I feel guilty because I was fortunate enough to have a job where I can afford it?
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Old 03-24-2012, 05:29 PM
 
Location: The canyon (with my pistols and knife)
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Isn't "The Singularity" one of the idiots on Jersey Shore?
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Old 04-02-2012, 10:45 PM
 
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Instead of asking 'why' the singularity hasn't gone mainstream, I think my original question should have been 'what' must be done in order for it to be brought to the attention of the general populace?
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Old 04-04-2012, 12:25 PM
 
Location: where you sip the tea of the breasts of the spinsters of Utica
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A robot attack on a celebrity, aspiring.
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