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Old 04-04-2012, 05:02 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,102 posts, read 20,351,797 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aspiring_natural View Post
Instead of asking 'why' the singularity hasn't gone mainstream, I think my original question should have been 'what' must be done in order for it to be brought to the attention of the general populace?
Time. This sounds lame but as it gets closer more and more people will be interested and as more people become familiar with the singularity it will become mainstream.
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Old 04-06-2012, 02:35 AM
 
769 posts, read 763,458 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NightBazaar View Post
....is that it may take 10 years to be able to manipulate an animal's behavior (he doesn't say what kind of animal), and that it could take 40, 50 or 100 years to have what I assume would be a working model of a human brain.....
This is a very linear assumption. It took 8 years to sequence 1% of the human genome, everyone screamed that it was going to be decades past target, then 99% got sequenced in the next 7 years

Now over 30,000 have been sequence and they are quoting the price will soon to below $1000 per. (The Human Genome Project cost 3 billion USD)




In regards to the OP, I think the Singularity hasn't gone mainstream because too many people just can't comprehend x^2. It's too unbelievable, even for a believer like myself, when looking at the data it just doesn't feel real. We should all feel honored to be lucky enough to live in a time period that is poised to experience more technological change than all other generations of humans got to combined. (If we haven't crossed that threshold already...debatable).
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Old 04-06-2012, 09:47 AM
 
4,986 posts, read 7,762,252 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WalterK View Post
This is a very linear assumption. It took 8 years to sequence 1% of the human genome, everyone screamed that it was going to be decades past target, then 99% got sequenced in the next 7 years

Now over 30,000 have been sequence and they are quoting the price will soon to below $1000 per. (The Human Genome Project cost 3 billion USD)
I think you missed the point. The problem I addressed has to do with those who make specific predictions as to WHEN such a period would occur. The Blue Brain Project, in terms of mapping out the human brain, which still has a staggering amount of territory to cover. Those who are directly involved have said they don't know how long it will take. It all takes money to fund such projects. With the shape that the global economy is currently in, it's anyone's guess. If funding is not forthcoming, or is slashed (like that of NASA's budget), it could spell quite a severe setback in the program.

Mapping out the brain is a staggering feat to accomplish. To be realistic, although progress in the mapping has been made, it's still a long way from being complete. Making a computerized model that can actually function like a real human brain is a different matter.

It's pretty silly to use the Human Genome Project as a comparison as a basis for timetables. There's still much about that which is unknown and still being discovered. Doing a complete mapping the brain is only an identification of the parts. It does not mean that once a digital model is complete that it will possess or experience any true self-awareness in the same sense as the human brain. The trick is to get all those parts to work correctly, and that's a very big and unknown factor. It boils down to a wait and see what happens thing.

I'm not overly surprised by those who set specific timetables though. For the sake of making comparisons, it had been projected that we'd have fully thiving colonies on the Moon. It's been nearly half a century since the last person even set foot on the Moon. As such some subjects of space exploration, whether human or robotic missions, are left in question because of budget cuts. Continued exploration by the US of Mars (for example) is in doubt because of budget cuts and may well depend on some truly remarkable discoveries by the MSL "Curiosity" rover, which is expected to land on the surface in August. An interesting example of time setting, is that those involved in the search for exoplanets are predicting that an Earth sized planet (potentially habitable) residing in the "Goldilocks Zone" from a host sun-like star will be made within 2 years.

Why the prediction? It's to provide a sense of credibility for funding of such projects. If it fails to produce results as projected, that too could fall by the wayside. The thing is that it is unknown whether such a planet will in fact be discovered within the next two years. There might indeed be some close enough to discover, but as yet, it remains unknown and could just as easily fail to deliver as predicted. It wasn't me who made the statement of "40, 50, or 100 years" to have a brain model good enough to manipulate an animal's behavior. That was a quote by someone actually working on the project, which in effect is simply saying we don't know when or if such a model will be completed well enough to function. That's more realistic projection than to propose that it's all gonna happen within the next 10-20 years. The bottom line is that we don't know one way or the other.

The LHC has been expected to find the Higgs boson. So far, nothing, although it may well be discovered. Regardless, we're being told that by the end of this year, the Higgs boson with be confirmed to exist or not. Um, really? What we're told is that "We're on the right track and getting closer to zeroing in on it." So what happens if the year comes and goes with still no confirmation? "We are definitely on the right track. We're so close now that we can taste it." It's all about funding. I think it's very important to confirm whether the Higgs actually exists or not. If it can be shown that it does not exist, it'll mean that modern physics is wrong and will have to be rewritten. But I also think that if it does not exist, public perception will be that the LHC at Cern will be thought of as an enormously expensive white elephant.

I don't much like the setbacks to science any more than anyone else does. Like it or not, governments (followed by major businesses) are still major providers for really big projects.


Quote:
In regards to the OP, I think the Singularity hasn't gone mainstream because too many people just can't comprehend x^2. It's too unbelievable, even for a believer like myself, when looking at the data it just doesn't feel real. We should all feel honored to be lucky enough to live in a time period that is poised to experience more technological change than all other generations of humans got to combined. (If we haven't crossed that threshold already...debatable).
Although you were addressing this to the OP, I think it's worth making a comment. We're already at a point where we're heavily dependent on technology. If technology failed, there's be a lot of people having a hard time to survive. The international trade and banking system are mostly mostly computerized transactions. Your medical records are stored on computerized databases. We look at weather trends and reports thanks to satellites. Our energy grid and communication systems depend on computerization. All it would take is a failure at a critical point to cause a major problem. We take all the precautions we can to prevent failures, but it can't be discounted that something unexpected could fall through the cracks, resultng in a major setback.
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Old 04-06-2012, 10:39 PM
 
127 posts, read 170,995 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
Time. This sounds lame but as it gets closer more and more people will be interested and as more people become familiar with the singularity it will become mainstream.
Honestly, that does sound like a lame answer....

That's like saying, time itself will take care of the Technological Singularity, thus you and I should sit back and not do anything, even in our lives (and this can be extended by way of induction to include everyone's lives....) Someone has to take action, whether it be towards the development end, or the catering of information end, or both.....

You're passively waiting for people to somehow "wake up" to the notion... but it's not like you and I needed to wait until the very last moments to become interested . Perhaps getting the information out quicker will manage to bring things even closer at a much better rate?
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Old 04-06-2012, 11:34 PM
 
Location: where you sip the tea of the breasts of the spinsters of Utica
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What, are you kidding, Aspiring? I'm going to join the Resistance, not help the Singularity come about! Maybe it will be wonderful, but then again so many things could go wrong to an unlimited extent.

There are people (or corporate heads) who already control way more of the world's political decision-making than I care to see. Right now they seem to be doing it in a relatively benign way, for example by getting the USA involved in smallish wars overseas to drum up business for defense contractors. But can you imagine if they get control over a Singularity kind of world, which would be easy given that ultimate dynamic of interconnection? We might be headed toward a real 1984 situation, maybe with better luxuries but still with a few players on top, manipulating everyone for .............. the sheer pleasure of dominance?
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Old 04-07-2012, 08:36 AM
 
127 posts, read 170,995 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Woof View Post
What, are you kidding, Aspiring? I'm going to join the Resistance, not help the Singularity come about! Maybe it will be wonderful, but then again so many things could go wrong to an unlimited extent.

There are people (or corporate heads) who already control way more of the world's political decision-making than I care to see. Right now they seem to be doing it in a relatively benign way, for example by getting the USA involved in smallish wars overseas to drum up business for defense contractors. But can you imagine if they get control over a Singularity kind of world, which would be easy given that ultimate dynamic of interconnection? We might be headed toward a real 1984 situation, maybe with better luxuries but still with a few players on top, manipulating everyone for .............. the sheer pleasure of dominance?
That's a good point, but the faster everyone becomes aware of the negative issues as well, we might be able to make more informed decisions as a whole (of course, there's always possibilities that could be thought of that lead to a worse path... but like democracy shouldn't every citizen be informed of catastrophies we could avoid with a greater amount effort?)
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Old 04-07-2012, 02:49 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,102 posts, read 20,351,797 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aspiring_natural View Post
Honestly, that does sound like a lame answer....

That's like saying, time itself will take care of the Technological Singularity, thus you and I should sit back and not do anything, even in our lives (and this can be extended by way of induction to include everyone's lives....) Someone has to take action, whether it be towards the development end, or the catering of information end, or both.....

You're passively waiting for people to somehow "wake up" to the notion... but it's not like you and I needed to wait until the very last moments to become interested . Perhaps getting the information out quicker will manage to bring things even closer at a much better rate?
Its lame but true. Look at us. I don't know when you become interested in the singularity but I have only been interested in it about a year now. People like Ray Kurzweil have known about it for decades. As it gets closer and the technology improves so it becomes increasingly obvious we are aproacing the singularity then more people will begin to pay attention. That is human nature.
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Old 04-07-2012, 02:57 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,102 posts, read 20,351,797 times
Reputation: 4131
Quote:
Originally Posted by Woof View Post
What, are you kidding, Aspiring? I'm going to join the Resistance, not help the Singularity come about! Maybe it will be wonderful, but then again so many things could go wrong to an unlimited extent.
There is nothing anyone can do to stop it. Once the first computer was built in 1890 it was only a matter of time before society reaches the singularity.
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Old 04-07-2012, 03:09 PM
 
Location: where you sip the tea of the breasts of the spinsters of Utica
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Ha! Just wait and see what happens when I get my photon synclaster ray gun and press it up against the Planetary Brain's amniotic tank .......
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Old 04-30-2012, 10:46 AM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,102 posts, read 20,351,797 times
Reputation: 4131
I read where computers advance more in 1 hour then they did in the first 90 years combined after the first modern computer was developed in 1890. That makes since yet amazes me.

Last edited by Josseppie; 04-30-2012 at 12:01 PM..
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