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For those of us who are aware about the ideas behind the Singularity, "transhumanism", post-scarcity, and how things could be rapidly converging to a point where things could likely become way better than anything we've ever imagined, why do you think the majority of our fellow human travelers have not even heard of or given thought about it yet? Would the world experience any changes if people became more aware of what may lead to happen, with sufficient collaborative effort?
why do you think the majority of our fellow human travelers have not even heard of or given thought about it yet?
Because they are too busy paying bills, working, cleaning the house, taking their kids to soccer practice, looking for a remote control, waiting for the light to turn green, posting on City-Data, watching old reruns of Kung Fu, and brushing their teeth.
The singularity is a difficult concept to grasp. When I first heard about it last year I was going to see a movie and saw a preview for the Singularity is Near. My thought was what in the hell is he talking about and that stared my research on it that has not ended. At this point it is difficult for me to talk about the future on anything from medical science to the national debt without talking about the singularity. When i do I can see people glaze over because the concept is just hard to nail down especially when in the past no one knew how computers advanced so they threw out all these dates based nothing on except what they thought would happen. In my opinion Ray Kurzweil is a genius simply because he has been able to crunch all the numbers and come up with mathematical models on how information technology progresses. The law of accelerating returns really explains it perfectly as computers do not progress in a linear fashion the way we envision them to but exponentially and people just don't think that way thus when they think about how long it will take for computers to have the kind of capability it will take they envision hundreds or thousands of years not 30. I mean look at Star Trek as it was seen as the view of the future but even that show is the future seen from a liner perspective as we are already getting technology they were getting in the 23rd century.
I guess that was a long way of saying most people just don't grasp the implications of exponential versus liner advances in information technology.
For those of you who do not know what the singularity is this is a good short video to give you some understanding of the topic.
One more thing I want to add is going through transformation is something that happens to society every so often. That is why we have the stone age, bronze age, iron age, renaissance, industrial revaluation, computer age and now the singularity. if people from the earlier times would be brought the a later time they would not understand how society was functioning. I often wonder what people felt like at the end of a age and if they could see the new one coming just like we can. To be honest it kind of feels surreal, at least from my perspective.
There is a thread I started on the topic a while ago. Here is the link in case you want to see it:
For the same reason people in 1890 weren't concerned with driving while texting traffic accidents and overzealous airport security?
We just aren't there yet.
This is true but there is a difference. The people in 1890 would not be alive to see texting etc while most of the people living today will be alive to see the singularity.
This is true but there is a difference. The people in 1890 would not be alive to see texting etc while most of the people living today will be alive to see the singularity.
Actually, I'd bet someone who started their life at the turn of the 20th century will have experienced more change than we will, even with the singularity.
And just as we don't build these:
We won't likely build tools like sentient AI computers that will be capable of usurping and/or dominating humanity in any broad way. We may hardly notice the passing of the singularity or not even get there at all, or we may even augment ourselves to match any AI. It's hard to see where it's all going, and I don't think the futurists necessarily have it right. After all, they once said we would be served by robots, going on vacation to the moon and commuting with jetpacks by now too.
Actually, I'd bet someone who started their life at the turn of the 20th century will have experienced more change than we will, even with the singularity.
And just as we don't build these:
We won't likely build tools like sentient AI computers that will be capable of usurping and/or dominating humanity in any broad way. We may hardly notice the passing of the singularity or not even get there at all, or we may even augment ourselves to match any AI.
My grandfathers generation saw a lot of changes, he was born in 1918. When he was a kid he would ride on a horse and buck board every Sunday with his family for a picnic north of Pueblo. When he died in 1983 he was driving a luxory car, Buick Electra, with all the bells and wistles of the time and lived in a home he had built in 1960 that was very modern for its day and he had traveled to Europe a few times on a jet. However the changes his generation experienced is nothing like what we are experiencing now. I am 38 years old and the changes I have already seen in my lifetime are amazing and this is noting to what is coming in the next 10 to 30 years. Right now there is a project called the Blue Brain Project that is the most important science project in the history of human kind, at least in my opinion. it will be complected by 2019 and will tell us how the human brain works down to the molecular level. By then computes will be fast enough to simulate the human brain and AI will really take off. I have the I phone 4 with seri and this will be seen as the first phone with AI but wait 5 to 10 years and AI will be just as intelligent as we are. I could go on but ya we have not seen anything yet.....
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chango
It's hard to see where it's all going, and I don't think the futurists necessarily have it right. After all, they once said we would be served by robots, going on vacation to the moon and commuting with jetpacks by now too.
This is a main reason why most people don't believe the coming singularity is near. In the past people have not understood how computes advanced so in the 50's and 60's they had outrages claims not based on science. It was not really till mores law that they started to understand how computers advanced. Even then it took a while to really get a hold of it and to this day some scientists do not get it but most do.
From the time I first heard of this concept it has fascinated me. I'm especially intrigued by technological singularity. Like someone above me said, I think people vastly overestimate the timeline needed for such things to occur. I brought this subject up one time at work, and yeah..they were completely lost. It was like I was speaking Greek. They only care about the current sports games. Sigh.. Anyway, barring some catastrophic event such as a meteor strike or a world wide nuclear war, I think humanity will eventually get to the point they will work together towards such a goal
Btw, can anybody recommend any good books on these subjects?
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Why hasn't the Singularity gone mainstream (yet?)
