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Old 11-15-2012, 11:01 AM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,105 posts, read 20,397,841 times
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I do not start threads all that often in here but I decided to this morning on this word:

Exponential

This is why humans are where we are today and why we are progressing at such a rate that we advance faster then most people, even scientists, think we will. Why is it that even today most people underestimate the impacts of exponential growth and why when you talk about it everyone agrees that we have progressed exponentially but when you talk about the future say oh it won't continue? I find this fascinating and have a hard time explaining it and the implications to people, at least with out them getting mad or looking at me like I am weird.

Any thoughts?
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Old 11-15-2012, 02:47 PM
 
15,924 posts, read 16,895,026 times
Reputation: 7626
Exponential what?

The birth rate has been decreasing for the past decade with no sign of increase....

World - Birth rate - Historical Data Graphs per Year

When was the last scientific breakthrough that benefited all of mankind?

3D TV?

Internet ready vehicles?
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Old 11-15-2012, 04:11 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,105 posts, read 20,397,841 times
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Humans advance at a exponential rate especially information technology. This is a proven fact yet even scientists do not get it when they look at the future. That is what I am referring to.
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Old 11-15-2012, 06:21 PM
 
27,015 posts, read 38,265,527 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plwhit View Post
Exponential what?

The birth rate has been decreasing for the past decade with no sign of increase....

World - Birth rate - Historical Data Graphs per Year

When was the last scientific breakthrough that benefited all of mankind?

3D TV?


Internet ready vehicles?
Seriously? I know darn well you read enough to know better than that.
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Old 11-15-2012, 06:44 PM
 
15,924 posts, read 16,895,026 times
Reputation: 7626
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tek_Freek View Post
Seriously? I know darn well you read enough to know better than that.
"most people underestimate the impacts of exponential growth" could mean anything....

This to me would be an example of exponential growth.....

Invisibility Tech Demo Tomorrow In NYC

Invisibility Tech Demo Tomorrow In NYC - Slashdot
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Old 11-16-2012, 09:11 AM
 
27,015 posts, read 38,265,527 times
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Not talking about exponential growth. I'm talking about your comment in bold in the post previous to mine.
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Old 11-16-2012, 11:06 AM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,105 posts, read 20,397,841 times
Reputation: 4143
I mean it as it applies to technology. I talk to people about how technology has advanced in the past and everyone agrees with how fast it has and how the world has changed. Then when I apply the same principles using exponential as the reason they laugh or get mad at me. So I just don't understand why people can't grasp the concept of exponential advancement.
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Old 11-16-2012, 06:47 PM
 
27,015 posts, read 38,265,527 times
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You might define exponential for them. Their laughter may be masking a lack of understanding.

I'm not joking.
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Old 11-16-2012, 08:58 PM
 
Location: Westwood, MA
3,508 posts, read 4,382,181 times
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I think that the reason that people doubt future exponential growth is that all exponential growth has to eventually saturate when it runs in to physical limitations. Moore's law is an example of exponential growth that will begin to slow (as transistors can't be smaller than atoms); similarly technological progress on Earth will likely have to slow at some point.

That doesn't mean that it has to slow in the near- or medium- term, though. I think one of the reasons people are hesitant to predict continued exponential growth is that they don't know what that growth will look like, exactly, so it is difficult to picture it and thus easy to discount it.
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Old 11-17-2012, 10:47 AM
 
27,015 posts, read 38,265,527 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jayrandom View Post
I think that the reason that people doubt future exponential growth is that all exponential growth has to eventually saturate when it runs in to physical limitations. Moore's law is an example of exponential growth that will begin to slow (as transistors can't be smaller than atoms); similarly technological progress on Earth will likely have to slow at some point.

That doesn't mean that it has to slow in the near- or medium- term, though. I think one of the reasons people are hesitant to predict continued exponential growth is that they don't know what that growth will look like, exactly, so it is difficult to picture it and thus easy to discount it.
There's an out in that statement...
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