U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Happy Easter!
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Science and Technology
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 05-29-2013, 03:47 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,105 posts, read 20,397,841 times
Reputation: 4143

Advertisements

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinking-man View Post
Don't listen to Wilsson.....he doesn't know what he's talking about.
I'm the OP and i wasn't at all thinking about 'investment advice'. i was thinking about how 'different' our lives are from 15 years ago....and wanted your guys' view into how things would look in the not so distant future.

Anyways...thank you.
With how information technology advances exponentially you will see some major changes in the next 30 years. We talk about it in more detail in the thread I posted about but the main thing is computers will continue to advance and humans will merge with them and AI will be smarter then the unaided human by 2019.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 05-29-2013, 04:00 PM
 
3,497 posts, read 4,637,857 times
Reputation: 2273
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
With how information technology advances exponentially you will see some major changes in the next 30 years. We talk about it in more detail in the thread I posted about but the main thing is computers will continue to advance and humans will merge with them and AI will be smarter then the unaided human by 2019.
thanks :-)
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-29-2013, 05:59 PM
 
Location: Tampa
3,981 posts, read 9,257,630 times
Reputation: 1164
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
With how information technology advances exponentially you will see some major changes in the next 30 years. We talk about it in more detail in the thread I posted about but the main thing is computers will continue to advance and humans will merge with them and AI will be smarter then the unaided human by 2019.
I thought that was 2029?

Watson is good, but not that good.

Not yet anyway...
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-29-2013, 06:17 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,105 posts, read 20,397,841 times
Reputation: 4143
Quote:
Originally Posted by crystalblue View Post
I thought that was 2029?

Watson is good, but not that good.

Not yet anyway...
2019 is when 1 computer that costs $1,000 will be as intelligent as a human. Actually some of the largest super computers today are capable of that. However there are not that many and they are used for other applications.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-30-2013, 06:04 AM
 
Location: Tampa
3,981 posts, read 9,257,630 times
Reputation: 1164
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
2019 is when 1 computer that costs $1,000 will be as intelligent as a human. Actually some of the largest super computers today are capable of that. However there are not that many and they are used for other applications.
Thats for computational power. The software is lagging.

Predictions made by Ray Kurzweil - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

They will still not be able to perform many human functions at that point (its only 6 years away). What they can do, they will do far better/quicker.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-30-2013, 08:36 AM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,105 posts, read 20,397,841 times
Reputation: 4143
Quote:
Originally Posted by crystalblue View Post
Thats for computational power. The software is lagging.

Predictions made by Ray Kurzweil - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

They will still not be able to perform many human functions at that point (its only 6 years away). What they can do, they will do far better/quicker.
The software is not really lagging as Ray pointed out in one of the videos I saw.

The next 6 years there is going to some big changes. In 3 years cars that are driverless will be on the road. In 2 years clinical studies will begin on memory implants. The brain should be reversed engineered by 2019. Plus computers that cost $1,000 will be fast enough to simulate the human brain. Software engineers know that today as well so I would be willing to bet they are designing programs that will come out in 2019 to take advantage of that.

Then the fun really begins! Computers will continue to advance exponentially and we will have reverse aging and have the ability to turn off the fat gene and major diseases like cancer and HIV will be cured all of this causing the life expectancy to go up faster then we age. I have read that it could be sooner, for example they are currently in clinical studies on a new HIV medicine that if it proves to be successful would cure HIV, but for now I'm going with the more conservative timetable with the added caveat that it could happen sooner.

Other things we will see in the 2020's are:

Much better AI
More people merging with computers. I have read that by 2025 it could be as much as 80% in the first world.
3D printers, stem cells, the list goes on.

That is why I call the 2020's the pre singularity. Things will be drastically different then ever before so everyone will see the singular coming but it won't quite be here. That will begin in 2030 and reach it at 2045 when one computer that costs $1,000 will be a billion times more intelligent then all the humans on the planet today, combined.

Last edited by Josseppie; 05-30-2013 at 08:54 AM..
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-01-2013, 07:36 AM
 
Location: Tampa
3,981 posts, read 9,257,630 times
Reputation: 1164
Steve Wozniak Predicts Computer Tutors - Business Insider

this would be cool.



and a thread I started a while back

sci-fi today, Science Fact tomorrow
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-01-2013, 08:08 AM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,105 posts, read 20,397,841 times
Reputation: 4143
I'm waiting for the day I can date a robot.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-02-2013, 12:14 AM
 
Location: Sinking in the Great Salt Lake
12,940 posts, read 18,508,728 times
Reputation: 13772
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinking-man View Post
As we've seen, the improvements in technology and computing power specifically has been exponential over the past few decades.......For us ~30 year olds, this is exciting times, because there's a chance we'll see pretty cool stuff before man eventually destroys the earth......

My question for you: How do you think computers and technology will help/change our lives in the next 30 years (realistically and specifically)? What products do you think we'll have in 30 years?
In 30 years our video games are gonna look like real life.

Otherwise I think technology might plateau out for the short term after the next 10 years. There will come a point where the tech is pretty much as good (and useful) as possible (like today's gas powered cars for example... the technology peaked in the late 90s and now most changes are cosmetic) and it won't change much until the next major paradigm shift. I don't see the singularity or true AI happening before quantum computers are commonplace, and 2050ish is probably when workable quantum computing will hit.

3d printers are likely to become commonplace fairly soon; instead of going to Walmart for all our cheap plastic crap we'll buy bags of plastic and metal pellets or powder, get "recipes" for items online and make our own junk. I think we'll also get greatly improved batteries that store far more energy and will be able to be recharged instantly.

You mentioned the other caveat too... I also think it's very likely we'll get another disastrous war at least on the same scale as WWII in the next 30 years (more like the next 5-10) but it won't be world-ending. Global Warming and other environmental problems will cause many, many problems but won't destroy the world either; life on earth has faced far more disastrous events than humankind and will endure even if we manage to kill ourselves off.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-02-2013, 09:46 AM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,105 posts, read 20,397,841 times
Reputation: 4143
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chango View Post
In 30 years our video games are gonna look like real life.

Otherwise I think technology might plateau out for the short term after the next 10 years. There will come a point where the tech is pretty much as good (and useful) as possible (like today's gas powered cars for example... the technology peaked in the late 90s and now most changes are cosmetic) and it won't change much until the next major paradigm shift. I don't see the singularity or true AI happening before quantum computers are commonplace, and 2050ish is probably when workable quantum computing will hit.

I find it interesting when anyone says computers will suddenly stop advancing exponentially when all the data and trend lines point towards the exact opposite. This is not new as I have been hearing that computers will stop advancing exponentially since I was a kid and its always 5-10 years away. It's not true today like it was not true back then and computers will continue to advance exponentially for a long time to come. Plus the rate at which they double will continue to increase as in 1900 it was 3 years, in 1960 it was 2 years and today it's 11 months. In fact one of the hallmarks of the singularity will be computers advancing so fast that unless humans merge with them we will not be able to keep up.

Last edited by Josseppie; 06-02-2013 at 10:15 AM..
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Science and Technology
Similar Threads
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

2005-2018, Advameg, Inc.

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top