U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Science and Technology
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 06-02-2013, 08:53 PM
 
Location: Sinking in the Great Salt Lake
12,904 posts, read 18,464,697 times
Reputation: 13738

Advertisements

Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
I find it interesting when anyone says computers will suddenly stop advancing exponentially when all the data and trend lines point towards the exact opposite. This is not new as I have been hearing that computers will stop advancing exponentially since I was a kid and its always 5-10 years away. It's not true today like it was not true back then and computers will continue to advance exponentially for a long time to come. Plus the rate at which they double will continue to increase as in 1900 it was 3 years, in 1960 it was 2 years and today it's 11 months. In fact one of the hallmarks of the singularity will be computers advancing so fast that unless humans merge with them we will not be able to keep up.
I find it silly when people think exponential growth of anything can go on forever.

Sure there's plenty of room for advancement from where we stand now but there is only so far you can take current computer architecture.

That's why we'd need a paradigm shift... a completely new way of doing something. Enter quantum computing and that's where computers will find the ability to be sentient.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 06-02-2013, 09:39 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,102 posts, read 20,362,717 times
Reputation: 4132
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chango View Post
I find it silly when people think exponential growth of anything can go on forever.
No one said forever but to think we are anywhere near the limits of technology is wrong.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chango View Post
Sure there's plenty of room for advancement from where we stand now but there is only so far you can take current computer architecture.

That's why we'd need a paradigm shift... a completely new way of doing something. Enter quantum computing and that's where computers will find the ability to be sentient.
Paradigm shifts have happened a few times since the first modern computer was built in 1890. One example is the vacuum tube. In the 1950's computers were advancing exponentially till the vacuum tube hit a wall and they could not make the vacuum tube smaller and keep the vacuum. That was the end..... Of vacuum tubes but not the end of computers advancing exponentially. They moved to a new paradigm transistors then the integrated circuit. That will come to a end around 2020 and again it will be the end. Of the integrated circuit but we will move to the next paradigm, 3D self organizing molecular structures and computers will continue to advance exponentially.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-02-2013, 10:28 PM
 
2,803 posts, read 2,518,982 times
Reputation: 6171
A key element that isn't addressed is the inherent conflict between technology (of all types) and the drive to greater closed loop efficiency and the underlying business economic financial model which is driven by success metrics for more activity, velocity, marginal unit profit etc...

The current business economic financial models are not necessarily set up to accept and promote new technology if they do not have the ability to be monetized in the aforementioned model. See the Invention Secrecy Act of 1951

This will lead to continuing usurping of the need for labor hour per output, but will continue to highlight the need for a paradigm shift in the underlying business economic financial model and the way success is measured.

Cultural values toward human beings and what value they bring to the amoral based business economic financial model will, (hopefully), require transparent dialogues between political and corporate leaders and the majority of people - most of whose labor will become superfluous (especially if there is no outward expansion opportunities re: space exploration) and whose viable skillset erodes faster and faster.

If we let the predominant business economic financial military 'war' economy to continue, then Skynet here we come
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-03-2013, 06:59 AM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,102 posts, read 20,362,717 times
Reputation: 4132
I think what you are describing is technological unemployment. That is a concern and the model must change and it wil be interesting to see what the new model is.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-04-2013, 09:23 PM
 
25 posts, read 48,736 times
Reputation: 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinking-man View Post
As we've seen, the improvements in technology and computing power specifically has been exponential over the past few decades.......For us ~30 year olds, this is exciting times, because there's a chance we'll see pretty cool stuff before man eventually destroys the earth......

My question for you: How do you think computers and technology will help/change our lives in the next 30 years (realistically and specifically)? What products do you think we'll have in 30 years?
haha I so agree.

For your question...Jewish people will not be view as minorities, Islam will not be view as the only religion that exists on this planet and women will have more freedoms and privileges than they do now.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-05-2013, 11:34 AM
 
Location: Sinking in the Great Salt Lake
12,904 posts, read 18,464,697 times
Reputation: 13738
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
No one said forever but to think we are anywhere near the limits of technology is wrong.



Paradigm shifts have happened a few times since the first modern computer was built in 1890. One example is the vacuum tube. In the 1950's computers were advancing exponentially till the vacuum tube hit a wall and they could not make the vacuum tube smaller and keep the vacuum. That was the end..... Of vacuum tubes but not the end of computers advancing exponentially. They moved to a new paradigm transistors then the integrated circuit. That will come to a end around 2020 and again it will be the end. Of the integrated circuit but we will move to the next paradigm, 3D self organizing molecular structures and computers will continue to advance exponentially.
We aren't near the limits of technology itself... but there is a limit to how far a certain type of technology can go. Like you said, a vacuum tube can only provde so much function because of their size; a silicone chip has the same basic problem and we will run up on it's limits in the next 20-30 years.

Moores Law isn't a real law of nature, it's really more of a coincidence that things happened that way. There are no guarantees we'll figure out the next best thing and stick with Moore.

Besides that, sometimes a technological concept is simply good enough to meet our needs. Ancient humans used clovis point arrowheads for thousands of years for example; there just isn't a better way to turn a rock into a sharp projectile with primitive tools.

In todays world, firearms are another good example; the US military is using the same general rifle today that was invented in the 1950s. Cars are another good example; we aren't all in flying cars because we can't do it... It's entirely within our technical capabilty to put everyone in personal helicopters. The problem is that it would be impossible to safely manage so we are still getting around in what are essentially highly refined "horseless carriages" from 1900.

When it comes to computers, do we really need sentient AI that asks us why when we want to look at internet porn sites or buy something on Ebay... or wonder why we are in charge instead of it? We may come to a point where our computers are powerful enough to do everything we want before we even need quantum computers. If so, the technology will naturally stall for decades or even centuries.

People seem to think the last 150 or so years is how things normally are; the truth is that for 99% of the existence of humanity things changed very litte from generation to generation. Recent history is the abberation. Anyway, I could be wrong but it's not crazy to suggest that normality will return to the human experience.

Last edited by Chango; 06-05-2013 at 11:42 AM..
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-05-2013, 12:26 PM
 
Location: Tampa
3,981 posts, read 9,247,350 times
Reputation: 1164
How to Fly a Model Helicopter Using Only Your Thoughts | Observations, Scientific American Blog Network


things like this will make the world very interesting. Marry this with a drone with a high powered camera and google glass and work will become a blast (if you live near a nude beach...)



http://www.theatlantic.com/technolog...r-pets/276532/

this could be annoying or sad or funny or ...
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-05-2013, 12:45 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,102 posts, read 20,362,717 times
Reputation: 4132
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chango View Post
We aren't near the limits of technology itself... but there is a limit to how far a certain type of technology can go. Like you said, a vacuum tube can only provde so much function because of their size; a silicone chip has the same basic problem and we will run up on it's limits in the next 20-30 years.

Moores Law isn't a real law of nature, it's really more of a coincidence that things happened that way. There are no guarantees we'll figure out the next best thing and stick with Moore.
Ray makes a good point that works with your argument as well.

Allen writes that “these ‘laws’ work until they don’t.” Here, Allen is confusing paradigms with the ongoing trajectory of a basic area of information technology. If we were examining the trend of creating ever-smaller vacuum tubes, the paradigm for improving computation in the 1950s, it’s true that this specific trend continued until it didn’t. But as the end of this particular paradigm became clear, research pressure grew for the next paradigm. The technology of transistors kept the underlying trend of the exponential growth of price-performance going, and that led to the fifth paradigm (Moore’s law) and the continual compression of features on integrated circuits. There have been regular predictions that Moore’s law will come to an end. The semiconductor industry’s roadmap titled projects seven-nanometer features by the early 2020s. At that point, key features will be the width of 35 carbon atoms, and it will be difficult to continue shrinking them. However, Intel and other chip makers are already taking the first steps toward the sixth paradigm, which is computing in three dimensions to continue exponential improvement in price performance. Intel projects that three-dimensional chips will be mainstream by the teen years. Already three-dimensional transistors and three-dimensional memory chips have been introduced.

This sixth paradigm will keep the LOAR going with regard to computer price performance to the point, later in this century, where a thousand dollars of computation will be trillions of times more powerful than the human brain. [1] And it appears that Allen and I are at least in agreement on what level of computation is required to functionally simulate the human brain

The link: Kurzweil Responds: Don't Underestimate the Singularity | MIT Technology Review

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chango View Post
Besides that, sometimes a technological concept is simply good enough to meet our needs. Ancient humans used clovis point arrowheads for thousands of years for example; there just isn't a better way to turn a rock into a sharp projectile with primitive tools.
Those were not information technology but if you look back at history even they were getting smarter exponentially. In fact ever since humans could speak, over 200,000 years ago, we have been getting smarter exponentially. We are just now at the knee of the curve so the changes we see and faster then anything before. In fact the changes we will see in the next 10 years will be more then society has seen up until this point. The same will be true for the 10 years after that and so on.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chango View Post
In todays world, firearms are another good example; the US military is using the same general rifle today that was invented in the 1950s. Cars are another good example; we aren't all in flying cars because we can't do it... It's entirely within our technical capabilty to put everyone in personal helicopters. The problem is that it would be impossible to safely manage so we are still getting around in what are essentially highly refined "horseless carriages" from 1900.
Those examples are not information technology.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chango View Post
When it comes to computers, do we really need sentient AI that asks us why when we want to look at internet porn sites or buy something on Ebay... or wonder why we are in charge instead of it? We may come to a point where our computers are powerful enough to do everything we want before we even need quantum computers. If so, the technology will naturally stall for decades or even centuries.
People said the same thing about computers. Do we really need them? Change can be scary.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chango View Post
People seem to think the last 150 or so years is how things normally are; the truth is that for 99% of the existence of humanity things changed very litte from generation to generation. Recent history is the abberation. Anyway, I could be wrong but it's not crazy to suggest that normality will return to the human experience.
You bring up a good point and that is why understanding exponential growth is so hard for us. We are use to thinking linearly not exponentially. That is hard wired in our brains so the idea of computers advancing exponentially is foreign to us that we think it must stop even when all the data and trend lines point towards the exact opposite happening. I get it and trust me I was that way when I first heard about this about 5 years ago now.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-05-2013, 02:14 PM
 
Location: Tampa
3,981 posts, read 9,247,350 times
Reputation: 1164
one thing mentioned in that book 9READ THE BOOK!!) was that advances in AI are usually (not always) done by for profit entities. If an AI is going to make money worthless, these companies may not pursue that research ( or may not let it out of the lab).

Will this stop it? probably not, but it may make it slower.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-05-2013, 02:27 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,102 posts, read 20,362,717 times
Reputation: 4132
It has not slowed the computer industry down so far and the first modern computer was built in 1890.

That book does sound good. The problem is I am not a big reader and am currently reading how to build a mind by Ray Kurzewil. Once I am done I will look into this book.

Last edited by Josseppie; 06-05-2013 at 02:50 PM..
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Science and Technology
Similar Threads
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2018, Advameg, Inc.

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top