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Old 06-05-2013, 03:03 PM
 
Location: Tampa
3,981 posts, read 9,240,148 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
It has not slowed the computer industry down so far and the first modern computer was built in 1890.

That book does sound good. The problem is I am not a big reader and am currently reading how to build a mind by Ray Kurzewil. Once I am done I will look into this book.
that one got way into too much biology for me. Silicon I can understand some. Meat, not so much...
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Old 06-05-2013, 03:27 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crystalblue View Post
that one got way into too much biology for me. Silicon I can understand some. Meat, not so much...
That might be why I am struggling with it. That and I really hate to read. I think its my ADHD as I start to read then get bored.
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Old 06-05-2013, 04:12 PM
 
Location: Sinking in the Great Salt Lake
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
Ray makes a good point that works with your argument as well.

Allen writes that “these ‘laws’ work until they don’t.” Here, Allen is confusing paradigms with the ongoing trajectory of a basic area of information technology. If we were examining the trend of creating ever-smaller vacuum tubes, the paradigm for improving computation in the 1950s, it’s true that this specific trend continued until it didn’t. But as the end of this particular paradigm became clear, research pressure grew for the next paradigm. The technology of transistors kept the underlying trend of the exponential growth of price-performance going, and that led to the fifth paradigm (Moore’s law) and the continual compression of features on integrated circuits. There have been regular predictions that Moore’s law will come to an end. The semiconductor industry’s roadmap titled projects seven-nanometer features by the early 2020s. At that point, key features will be the width of 35 carbon atoms, and it will be difficult to continue shrinking them. However, Intel and other chip makers are already taking the first steps toward the sixth paradigm, which is computing in three dimensions to continue exponential improvement in price performance. Intel projects that three-dimensional chips will be mainstream by the teen years. Already three-dimensional transistors and three-dimensional memory chips have been introduced.

This sixth paradigm will keep the LOAR going with regard to computer price performance to the point, later in this century, where a thousand dollars of computation will be trillions of times more powerful than the human brain. [1] And it appears that Allen and I are at least in agreement on what level of computation is required to functionally simulate the human brain

The link: Kurzweil Responds: Don't Underestimate the Singularity | MIT Technology Review



Those were not information technology but if you look back at history even they were getting smarter exponentially. In fact ever since humans could speak, over 200,000 years ago, we have been getting smarter exponentially. We are just now at the knee of the curve so the changes we see and faster then anything before. In fact the changes we will see in the next 10 years will be more then society has seen up until this point. The same will be true for the 10 years after that and so on.



Those examples are not information technology.



People said the same thing about computers. Do we really need them? Change can be scary.



You bring up a good point and that is why understanding exponential growth is so hard for us. We are use to thinking linearly not exponentially. That is hard wired in our brains so the idea of computers advancing exponentially is foreign to us that we think it must stop even when all the data and trend lines point towards the exact opposite happening. I get it and trust me I was that way when I first heard about this about 5 years ago now.
Some fair counter-points but one thing here is wrong. Technological advancement is not exponential growth. Simply explained exponential growth is one thing gives birth to two things which also bring about 2 things, ect ect. doubiling over and over until it eventually collapses.

That's what is happening with population, dollar devaluation and debt, not tech.

Technological leaps are more like landslides; a ground-breaking new concept leads to a deluge of new ideas which break loose other ideas as it goes, leaving some by the wayside and with the "center" growing in strenghth and intensity until everything hits the "bottom of the hill" and comes to a halt.
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Old 06-05-2013, 04:27 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,102 posts, read 20,344,698 times
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Originally Posted by Chango View Post
Some fair counter-points but one thing here is wrong. Technological advancement is not exponential growth. Simply explained exponential growth is one thing gives birth to two things which also bring about 2 things, ect ect. doubiling over and over until it eventually collapses.

That's what is happening with population, dollar devaluation and debt, not tech.

Technological leaps are more like landslides; a ground-breaking new concept leads to a deluge of new ideas which break loose other ideas as it goes, leaving some by the wayside and with the "center" growing in strenghth and intensity until everything hits the "bottom of the hill" and comes to a halt.
It might seem that way but information technology advances exponentially. More's law is the latest example of that but it has been going on since the first computer was built in 1890.

Here is Ray Kurzweil explaining exponential growth.


Last edited by Josseppie; 06-05-2013 at 04:45 PM..
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Old 06-07-2013, 12:53 PM
 
Location: Shreveport, LA
1,009 posts, read 831,778 times
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I am just hoping that I can it tomorrow's workplace.
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Old 06-07-2013, 04:24 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,102 posts, read 20,344,698 times
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Originally Posted by Magic Qwan View Post
I am just hoping that I can it tomorrow's workplace.
Look at it this way. If you can't work in tomorrows work place with a engineering degree then no one will be working which means the economy will be different.
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Old 06-07-2013, 11:37 PM
 
15,924 posts, read 16,847,914 times
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Computers little by little are accomplishing something no Democrat, Republican nor Independent has done....

Dumbing down Americans, getting Americans into the herd mentality and getting them to believe anything they read on the Internet.

How masterful it was to get the kiddies to go take expensive college courses in fields that have no openings or the stipends are so minimal they must depend on our progressive liberal government to survive. What is their official name?

Oh yes, indentured servants.....
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Old 06-08-2013, 06:54 AM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,102 posts, read 20,344,698 times
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Actually computers and technology have made us smarter. With my I phone I have access to more knowledge and information then President Clinton did when he was in office. That goes for anyone on the planet with a smart phone and access to the Internet. As time goes on and the computers keep getting smaller information will even be more accessible. Then when we merge with it our computers our knowledge will really grow.
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Old 06-08-2013, 07:22 AM
 
Location: Tampa
3,981 posts, read 9,240,148 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
Actually computers and technology have made us smarter. With my I phone I have access to more knowledge and information then President Clinton did when he was in office. That goes for anyone on the planet with a smart phone and access to the Internet. As time goes on and the computers keep getting smaller information will even be more accessible. Then when we merge with it our computers our knowledge will really grow.
That may not work like you want

If you can merge with your computer, you could become very very smart.

Perhaps too smart.

Do you think the govt will want millions of people around that could build their own nuclear weapons with spare parts from the garage? Or their own bio-weapons?

Anyone that gets enhanced that much will probably be under 24 hour surveillance, at least in the beginning.
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Old 06-08-2013, 07:37 AM
 
Location: Sinking in the Great Salt Lake
12,899 posts, read 18,442,586 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
It might seem that way but information technology advances exponentially. More's law is the latest example of that but it has been going on since the first computer was built in 1890.

Here is Ray Kurzweil explaining exponential growth.

Nope. Technology rises and falls and has done so several times. In recent history (at least compared to the whole of human history) technology rose to a peak with the heights of the Roman empire and even earlier in Ancient China, then stagnated/retreated during the dark ages before rising again during the Renaissance, leveling off for couple centuries and then shooting up with the Industrial Revolution. Levels of technology varied wildly from culture to culture too; it's only within a single human lifetime that technology has become global in scope.

The whole thing is far more complicated than an exponential line... and it's probably better that way because exponential lines tend to crash under the weight their own growth.

IT is growing like a weed but it won't always. Eventually it will plateau, the question is when?
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