U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Happy Easter!
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Science and Technology
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 06-17-2013, 07:55 PM
 
37,072 posts, read 38,495,552 times
Reputation: 14846

Advertisements

Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
But doubling every two years means it’s only seven more doublings before it meets a hundred percent of the world’s energy needs.
This is driven by subsidies and mandates though, it's not market driven. For example here in PA if I were to install solar the feds will chip in 30% and the state another 20%. If the array is large enough and most home ones do you can get a "green credit" too, these are sold to the power company so they can meet mandates.

Quote:
Pennsylvania AEPS Alternative Energy Credit Program | Welcome

The Pennsylvania Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard (AEPS) requires that an annually increasing percentage of electricity sold to retail customers in Pennsylvania is from alternative energy sources. The program requires that retail energy suppliers utilize Alternative Energy Credits (AECs) for demonstrating compliance with the standard. An AEC is created each time a qualified alternative energy facility produces 1000 kWh of electricity. The AEC is then be sold or traded separately from the power. This makes it easy for individuals and businesses to finance and invest in clean, emission free solar power.
Those costs are hidden in consumers power bills, both the taxpayer and the ratepayers are heavily funding this. If you want another example the wind farm in Massachusetts that made the news a few years back ended up getting a contract for 18 cents per kWh, that's wholesale cost. They also have a 2.5% increase over 15 years which will make it near 30 cents per kWh. In comparison the average retail cost of electric in the US is about 11 cents per kWh and the coal and natural gas power producers sell it for about 4 cents per kWh wholesale.

Governments like the US have built an artificial market for this product and that has led to a glut in product and the subsequent price drop. Until the supply of solar panels normalize and these subsidies and mandates are lifted any analysis is really a pointless exercise.


---------------

And again the primary thing you keep overlooking is the storage capacity, solar can be the cheapest thing on the planet but if the storage tech doesn't keep pace it's still supplemental.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 06-17-2013, 08:37 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,105 posts, read 20,410,542 times
Reputation: 4143
What you have given me is examples of the government trying to push a technology that is not yet cost effective. That I agree with. However information technology advances exponentially and this does nothing to disprove what is now known as the law of accelerating returns. That is why in about 5 years solar will be cost effective then in the 2020's be 50% cheaper then fossil fuels.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-17-2013, 09:28 PM
 
37,072 posts, read 38,495,552 times
Reputation: 14846
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
What you have given me is examples of the government trying to push a technology that is not yet cost effective. That I agree with. However information technology advances exponentially and this does nothing to disprove what is now known as the law of accelerating returns. That is why in about 5 years solar will be cost effective then in the 2020's be 50% cheaper then fossil fuels.
You're trying to make two different arguments, you're trying to use the amount of solar installed in one and the drop of price in the other. they are intertwined and both can be explained in one simple sentence.

The increasing amount of solar use is driven by government mandates and subsidies which has driven up production and subsequently caused a glut on the market as that government support was scaled back.

Solar is going to have a place in energy production and it may very well play a large role but it's not going to replace coal and natural gas because again it can't replace base power .
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-17-2013, 09:42 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,105 posts, read 20,410,542 times
Reputation: 4143
Quote:
Originally Posted by thecoalman View Post
You're trying to make two different arguments, you're trying to use the amount of solar installed in one and the drop of price in the other. they are intertwined and both can be explained in one simple sentence.

The increasing amount of solar use is driven by government mandates and subsidies which has driven up production and subsequently caused a glut on the market as that government support was scaled back.

Solar is going to have a place in energy production and it may very well play a large role but it's not going to replace coal and natural gas because again it can't replace base power .
Just because something is "base power" today does not mean it will be in the future. Coal and gas replaced lamp oil as "base power" because it is better. The same is happening with solar. In 10-20 years solar will replace coal and gas as "base power" because it will be better. Now the government, with all their wisdom, tried to make that happen sooner and that can't be done. Don't confuse that with solar technology not improving and quickly becoming a "base power".
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-17-2013, 10:47 PM
 
37,072 posts, read 38,495,552 times
Reputation: 14846
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
Just because something is "base power" today does not mean it will be in the future. Coal and gas replaced lamp oil as "base power" because it is better. The same is happening with solar. In 10-20 years solar will replace coal and gas as "base power" because it will be better. Now the government, with all their wisdom, tried to make that happen sooner and that can't be done. Don't confuse that with solar technology not improving and quickly becoming a "base power".
I'm not sure if you missed my numerous explanations but you need storage technology for it to replace base power, the sun doesn't shine at night. This is not some trivial hurdle to overcome for renewables to replace coal and natural gas. The example I have already given is you could use the electric from the solar to pump water into an basin and then use it at night to run generators, in other words an artificial hydroelctric dam. The issue of course is you now have a huge additional expense in building a dam, the generators, the pumps to pump the water etc. There is also a massive hit on the efficiency because now you have losses for both the pumping and generators.

Anything that is to replace coal or natural gas will need a means to store energy, that's just a fact. If you go back to the list from the OP this is why energy storage is listed above solar.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-17-2013, 11:49 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,105 posts, read 20,410,542 times
Reputation: 4143
Quote:
Originally Posted by thecoalman View Post
I'm not sure if you missed my numerous explanations but you need storage technology for it to replace base power, the sun doesn't shine at night. This is not some trivial hurdle to overcome for renewables to replace coal and natural gas. The example I have already given is you could use the electric from the solar to pump water into an basin and then use it at night to run generators, in other words an artificial hydroelctric dam. The issue of course is you now have a huge additional expense in building a dam, the generators, the pumps to pump the water etc. There is also a massive hit on the efficiency because now you have losses for both the pumping and generators.

Anything that is to replace coal or natural gas will need a means to store energy, that's just a fact. If you go back to the list from the OP this is why energy storage is listed above solar.
I don't think battery's are a form of information technology so it' advancement is not as predictable but I have seen some major breakthroughs of late. Some have been posted in this forum. I will try and dig some up and post them here. Needless to say I am not worried about that.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-18-2013, 12:16 AM
 
37,072 posts, read 38,495,552 times
Reputation: 14846
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
I don't think battery's are a form of information technology....
Batteries? I don't think you have a comprehension of the scale and costs involved with such a proposition.



Quote:
Needless to say I am not worried about that.
You may not be but anyone in the solar industry is becsue they realize this is the ultimate limitation of solar.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-18-2013, 02:13 AM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,105 posts, read 20,410,542 times
Reputation: 4143
I'm not worried because I have seen breakthroughs in battery technology and this is only 2013. Fast toward 10 to 20 years and there will be even more.

Here is one example:

The creators of this new technology, at the University of Illinois, boast that with this new battery in your phone, it could jump start your car and then recharge the phone in the blink of an eye. Applications for this battery are immense. Battery powered cars will finally become practical, and fully recharge within seconds. Wearable computing will be smaller and more efficient, such as the upcoming Smart Watches and Google Glass.


The link: Breakthrough for batteries! Boosting current power 30x
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-18-2013, 06:24 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,105 posts, read 20,410,542 times
Reputation: 4143
Speaking of batteries another breakthrough came across my Facebook page so I thought I would share it here.

June 18, 2013 — Three-dimensional printing can now be used to print lithium-ion microbatteries the size of a grain of sand. The printed microbatteries could supply electricity to tiny devices in fields from medicine to communications, including many that have lingered on lab benches for lack of a battery small enough to fit the device, yet provide enough stored energy to power them.

To make the microbatteries, a team based at Harvard University and the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign printed precisely interlaced stacks of tiny battery electrodes, each less than the width of a human hair.

"Not only did we demonstrate for the first time that we can 3-D-print a battery, we demonstrated it in the most rigorous way,"said Jennifer Lewis, Ph.D., senior author of the study, who is also the Hansjörg Wyss Professor of Biologically Inspired Engineering at the Harvard School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS), and a Core Faculty Member of the Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering at Harvard University. Lewis led the project in her prior position at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, in collaboration with co-author Shen Dillon, an Assistant Professor of Materials Science and Engineering there.

The results were published in today's online edition of Advanced Materials.

The link: Tiny batteries: 3-D printing could lead to miniaturized medical implants, compact electronics, tiny robots
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Science and Technology
Similar Threads
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2018, Advameg, Inc.

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top