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Old 08-19-2013, 07:43 AM
 
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Is this true or is there more to this? Innovation Trail
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Old 08-19-2013, 11:13 AM
 
Location: Somewhere in northern Alabama
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Criminy. I had to open scripts to a couple unknowns, only to discover it was a link to a Ted talk video, which I have no time to waste on when I can read the thrust of the argument in less than a minute. It isn't even science as much as economics and politics.


Here is a rebuttal:
No More Growth? Let’s not be so Hasty: An Assessment of Robert J. Gordon’s Recent Working Paper | The Innovation Files
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Old 08-19-2013, 11:17 AM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
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He is completely wrong as he has no idea of what is going on with information technology and how it advances exponentially faster and how the advancements we will see from now till 2030, only 17 years from now, will have more innovation then all of history till now.

For example in 1960 computers were the size of buildings, in the 1970's they fit in rooms then by 1980 they fit on our desks then in the 1990's they fit on our laps. In 2005 they fit in our pockets, the smart phone, and today we have Google glasses and they are working on computer contacts that will be out in a few years that will have more computing ability then our smart phones today. Then by 2030 computers the size of blood cells will have more computing ability then our smart phones today and that will revolutionize everything including medicine since we will have billions inside our bodies. This is on top of work taking place with biology and genetics etc.

Here is a example of the contact lenses and how it will change things in just a few years:

THE END OF SMARTPHONES: Here's A Computer Screen On A Contact Lens

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/this-...#ixzz2cR7sBnxJ

Now an example with 3D printers:

3-D printing, limited only by our imagination, is undergoing a patent boom. Goldman Sachs recently cited 3-D printing as one of eight trends poised to disrupt industries. In the last decade, the Patent and Trademark Office has received more than 6,800 patent applications related to 3-D printing, also known as additive manufacturing. By one estimate, the global market reached $2.2 billion last year—up 28.6 percent from 2011. "The last time I saw this kind of gold rush for patents was during the dot-com boom" of the late 1990s, said Peter Canelias, a patent attorney based in New York.

The link: 3-D printing booms, triggers rush for patents - NBC News.com

So in my opinion his forecasts are not worth the paper they were written on.

Last edited by Josseppie; 08-19-2013 at 12:17 PM..
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Old 09-04-2013, 07:26 AM
 
Location: Winter nightime low 60,summer daytime high 85, sunny 300 days/year, no hablamos ingles aquí
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While Robert Gordon is most likely wrong, and the rebuttals of his thesis are correct in the general sense, both miss a crucial aspect of the long-term growth of the civilization (notice I did not say 'productivity')

Gordons contrarians assume the growth should, or will be IT-fueled. I believe it will not. IT will continue to have an important supportive role of the existing economy, but will contribute to the real growth no more than the invention of a typewriter contributed to the world literature.

When we look at the major leaps the current civilization has made, each of those leaps was based on a different paradigm.
The first one, the neolithic revolution, was agriculture. 10 thousand years later there was the industrial revolution, which was all about mechanization.
The so-called 'IT revolution' was about data processing. As an insider who just exited a career in software development, I'd question if it even deserves the moniker 'revolution' (Twitter and Facebook the pinnacles of the human creation?)
All IT and computers do is automation of existing processes. Despite the inflated Singularity claims, the true creation is still done by human brain, exclusively.

This leads us to the question "what paradigm the next Big Leap Forward" will be based on? Well, in reality, nobody knows. It will certainly not be mechanical, not even informatics-based. If I were to take a stab, I'd say Biology. As a wild example: we will no longer have to fly to Hawaii. Instead, we will take a pill that will produce an life-like sensory illusion of being on Waikiki beach, views, smells and sounds included. You may laugh if you want, but this is my 'vision of the future' and I will stick to it :-)

Or, on a more serious note. What would be a bigger contribution to the worlds 'real GDP' A super hybrid-electric car, or an invention that guarantees we live, completely disease-free and fully functional, mentally and physically, till the age of 100? That's what I mean by 'real progress', as opposed to the pseudo-progress that gets all the press currently.

Last edited by skiffrace; 09-04-2013 at 07:36 AM..
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Old 09-04-2013, 08:59 AM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
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The world is becoming information based and information technology will lead that.
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Old 09-04-2013, 09:18 AM
 
Location: God's Gift to Mankind for flying anything
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
The world is becoming information based and information technology will lead that.
Has the world not been *information based* from the beginning ?
Someone comes up with an idea (you may call it innovation or invention, whatever).
Then it goes around and more people use and often improve on it.
The better mouse trap principle.

I think this has been going on for eons, no ?

Now if you say that Technology will hasten information and thus improvements and new ideas will thus come faster, I agree.

*Becoming* information based, no ...

But ...
As in History, there was a time of great technological knowledge.
Some of the old ancient structures, mankind is still *baffled* on it was done.
Then came the *dark ages*, then technology increased again.

Are we in for another period of *dark ages* ?
No idea, everything seems to go in *cycles* ...

If we start mixing Technology with Politics, It WILL slow down, or it will change direction.
Much of the present technology is good for mankind.
Some of it, I am not sure I want to be part of ...

Other items, where more advanced Technology is available,
I wonder if we are allowed to use it ?

See this also
http://www.city-data.com/forum/31232025-post1.html
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Old 09-04-2013, 09:52 AM
 
26,889 posts, read 38,133,169 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skiffrace View Post
The so-called 'IT revolution' was about data processing. As an insider who just exited a career in software development, I'd question if it even deserves the moniker 'revolution' (Twitter and Facebook the pinnacles of the human creation?).
As an "insider" you should know better than to claim those as a pinnacle of anything. It is a revolution, just not the type you seem to want to believe it is.
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Old 09-04-2013, 11:59 AM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,102 posts, read 20,348,297 times
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I can see how you can say information technology has been apart of society since the start but I don't think it was as much of the economy as it is today and will be in the future. Either way I don't think we have seen the end of innovation as we will see more innovation in the next 20 years then all of human history till now.
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Old 09-05-2013, 11:50 AM
 
Location: God's Gift to Mankind for flying anything
5,165 posts, read 10,475,839 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
I can see how you can say information technology has been apart of society since the start but I don't think it was as much of the economy as it is today and will be in the future.
I agree, because in the *old* days, information availability and exchange left a lot to be wished for.
Today, all I need to do is *look it up* ... from the comfort of my home.
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Old 09-05-2013, 11:50 AM
 
505 posts, read 547,176 times
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Technology may increase the chance Innovation being accepted or discovered.

My theory is that Innovstion is one of many intelligence in the genes.
In order for some of the intelligence to work they need the right place, right time, right location, right people(even right people with right intelligence) and right idea.

Let me explain it in an example.

Pick up a bat stick --> innovation, but nothing happen even other copy intelligence copy it.

keep playing with stick and use it on animals(scare them away)
BUT surrounded by god people --> You are not our kind and disturbing our way of life and get kick out the group.
BUT surrounded by green people --> Why are you disturbing the environment?

Recognized by the ancient version of Steve Jobs -> We will see how we can use it and impove it.
So Steve Jobs's group has huge advantage against other human groups and we are their offsprings.

Innovation is happening every second and every place and being wasted 99.999999...% of the time.

Another example - > Archimedes calculus was invented in the wrong time, wrong place, wrong location....

Imagine how much benefit human race can reap from his innovation.

Fast forward to current time, I believe the innovation genes are kept going and people with this kind of genes just caould not control themselve. BUT without Rs, 99% of them are wasted.

So now another intelligence finally get to be used --> Big Data genes who can absorb and love to absorb tons of information and make the connections. This kind of genes are derived from or related to Seek and Hunt genes who can read tons of surrounding environment information and figure out the dangers or preys.

Another example is
I have lots of idea and dicussed them with my love ones and that is it.
Days, weeks, months and years later, they point out that Google is using the idea of mime.
I said to them, idea is NOT mime to own and they are everywhere. Most are lost and Google is good at adopting new ideas.

Basically, Internet allow us to share knowledge/information FAST and HUGE which in term pushing our growth of neurons toward uncharted territory.

In order for me to write this I need to know Biology, Biochemestry, Gene, Computer Science, Food science, Nutritional Science and maybe Economic and Finance.... AND make the connections.
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