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What we are on the way to having a large part of your population never having had a job to retire from, living in cities that are crumbling from within and without. Frankly, climate change aside, when some people talk about a dystopian future they seem to conjure up visions of "The Book of Eli" or "Road Warrier." My dystopian future looks more like "Elysium" a world established by the corporations for the corporations with use excess humans living in ramshackle enclaves out of sight and out of mind of their betters.
I don't think the future will be like any Hollywood movie.
I do not think people will "retire" as the entire nature of working will change as society becomes more advanced. Plus as people never age they will never hit "65". Its hard for us to imagine today but the new normal will be vastly different and I am not talking for the next generation but ours in the next 15 years.
I am not saying we do not have challenges to meet as we do. I am just confident that as they come up society will solve them.
I am not saying that, what you believe will happen, will not happen. I do disagree with your time frame.
This coming July 20th will be the 45th anniversary of man stepping on the moon. I was 22 years old at that time. I was also very optimistic that the first step would not be our last step for 45 years and counting. No one then could have ever imagined that travel to the moon would be so difficult. We figured that technology would improve and by this time we would be traveling to the stars. I guess I lost some of my enthusiasm over the years. Change/progress does not come that quick.
I am not saying that, what you believe will happen, will not happen. I do disagree with your time frame.
This coming July 20th will be the 45th anniversary of man stepping on the moon. I was 22 years old at that time. I was also very optimistic that the first step would not be our last step for 45 years and counting. No one then could have ever imagined that travel to the moon would be so difficult. We figured that technology would improve and by this time we would be traveling to the stars. I guess I lost some of my enthusiasm over the years. Change/progress does not come that quick.
I know my time frame seems optimistic that is because we are not use to thinking exponentially and the impact it will have on society. Space travel is different as it is not information technology thus does not advance exponentially or is it predictable. Thus in the future will be go to the moon and beyond? Sure. Could I tell you when? Not with any accuracy. That does not mean we are not getting more advanced in that area as we are its just not something that can be predicted. That is why I do my best to keep my predictions strictly to information technology as that is really the only thing that can be predicted with 100% accuracy.
I know my time frame seems optimistic that is because we are not use to thinking exponentially and the impact it will have on society. Space travel is different as it is not information technology thus does not advance exponentially or is it predictable. Thus in the future will be go to the moon and beyond? Sure. Could I tell you when? Not with any accuracy. That does not mean we are not getting more advanced in that area as we are its just not something that can be predicted. That is why I do my best to keep my predictions strictly to information technology as that is really the only thing that can be predicted with 100% accuracy.
I tend to disagree on these points. The computers in mission control and onboard the lunar capsule were only a fraction of the computing power we have today. Calculating the burn, thrust, gravity and many that I cannot think about; were considerably more difficult in 1969. In 1969 we had no commercial incentive to go to the moon. Today there is the prospect of mining Helium 3, and even with the commercial incentive and better technology, we still hesitate and plan only for the future.
That brings us back to you statement that you only make your predictions on information technology - like humans and politics play no roll. Many ideas have failed; such as: 21 Great Technologies That Failed | PCMag.com. This year, on my job, management spent $1,500,000 on two auto unloading machines. For the last month the machines have been sitting idle - they created more problems than they solved. Yes; it is possible that someday they will work out the bugs - but that day is not today.
I tend to disagree on these points. The computers in mission control and onboard the lunar capsule were only a fraction of the computing power we have today. Calculating the burn, thrust, gravity and many that I cannot think about; were considerably more difficult in 1969. In 1969 we had no commercial incentive to go to the moon. Today there is the prospect of mining Helium 3, and even with the commercial incentive and better technology, we still hesitate and plan only for the future.
The computers NASA uses are information technology, however, most everything else is not. Why people successfully predicted the smart phone yet could not predict and can not predict when we will go to Mars.
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Originally Posted by fisheye
That brings us back to you statement that you only make your predictions on information technology - like humans and politics play no roll. Many ideas have failed; such as: 21 Great Technologies That Failed | PCMag.com. This year, on my job, management spent $1,500,000 on two auto unloading machines. For the last month the machines have been sitting idle - they created more problems than they solved. Yes; it is possible that someday they will work out the bugs - but that day is not today.
This list is of technologies that failed. No one technology is guaranteed to be successful even if its information technology. That does not mean that overall we can not predict how information technology will advance and the fact it advances exponentially and faster overtime, Moore's law. It just means that no one can predict how each and every technology will do and that I agree with. How will Google glass do? I have no idea but if you look back it was predicted we would have that kind or technology today and we do with more companies coming out with similar glasses this year. I was going to get Google glass but now I think I want something like Meta glasses. So which company will be the most successful and which ones will be in the failed list? Your guess is as good as mine.
I don't think the future will be like any Hollywood movie. I do not think people will "retire" as the entire nature of working will change as society becomes more advanced. Plus as people never age they will never hit "65". Its hard for us to imagine today but the new normal will be vastly different and I am not talking for the next generation but ours in the next 15 years.
Now which one of us is thinking like a Hollywood movie?
There are over 200 million people who are currently unemployed across the world, or 6% of the total labor force. If you were to take into consideration that the unemployment rate amongst 15-24 year olds is 14+ percent and the number of people who will move from agricultural production to other sectors of the global economy. Coupled with your never aging workforce that is projected to rise from 6 billion to over 8 billion by the year 2030, we are going to have to do a bit more than just rethink the nature of work. We are going to have to dramatically rethink education, and the very nature of how we go about allocating resources. None of which will be solved by technology but rather through finding the social and political will to do something about it.
But so far the only change in the global social political rethinking about the nature of work, compensation, and general globalization for that matter is the most perverted form of social Darwinism. Hence my pessimism. If we cannot muster the political will to deal with widespread poverty, environmental degradation, to say nothing of climate change what good is technology?
Now which one of us is thinking like a Hollywood movie?
I guess that could be a Hollywood movie. No its no movie.
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Originally Posted by ovcatto
There are over 200 million people who are currently unemployed across the world, or 6% of the total labor force. If you were to take into consideration that the unemployment rate amongst 15-24 year olds is 14+ percent and the number of people who will move from agricultural production to other sectors of the global economy. Coupled with your never aging workforce that is projected to rise from 6 billion to over 8 billion by the year 2030, we are going to have to do a bit more than just rethink the nature of work. We are going to have to dramatically rethink education, and the very nature of how we go about allocating resources. None of which will be solved by technology but rather through finding the social and political will to do something about it.
I do not disagree with this. Technology is changing everything and we have to be ready for the change coming. Even how we learn. One of the ideas I have read about that I support to help is basic pay for all. This will really help with technological unemployment.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ovcatto
But so far the only change in the global social political rethinking about the nature of work, compensation, and general globalization for that matter is the most perverted form of social Darwinism. Hence my pessimism. If we cannot muster the political will to deal with widespread poverty, environmental degradation, to say nothing of climate change what good is technology?
There is a Ted Speaks that talks about this and it really fits here and its about how technology will help us solve our problems.
How advanced do you think that humanity could ever get?
Not very much further, our politicians and corporations will make sure the population remains subservient and only has enough tech gadgets to keep them from realizing the subjugation they are under...
As we have seen there are many "change is coming" prophecies over the years and stupid people to believe them...
One of the ideas I have read about that I support to help is basic pay for all.
Does that basic pay for all apply to our technology engineers and software designers? Does it apply to professionals: doctors, lawyers, professors, teachers? Does it apply to our President and our Representatives? Does it apply to celebrities and our sport's hero's? Does it apply to illegal immigrants that will no longer be working in our fields? Obviously many will have to take pay cuts to spread money to everybody.
Good luck with your basic pay legislation - I think it will float like a lead balloon!
Does that basic pay for all apply to our technology engineers and software designers? Does it apply to professionals: doctors, lawyers, professors, teachers? Does it apply to our President and our Representatives? Does it apply to celebrities and our sport's hero's? Does it apply to illegal immigrants that will no longer be working in our fields? Obviously many will have to take pay cuts to spread money to everybody.
Good luck with your basic pay legislation - I think it will float like a lead balloon!
I will admit that might not be the best solution. I am just trying to figure out how to best deal with technological unemployment in the short run. The reason I say short run is because in the long run I am not worried as the economy will just change but the question is how do we best deal with the change?
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No its no movie. 
