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Old 05-12-2014, 11:49 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,104 posts, read 20,382,957 times
Reputation: 4133

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Quote:
Originally Posted by BuzzDrogg View Post
"Telephones will never work because nothing can beat a letter for communication!"
--- Circa 1880

"Automobiles will never work because a horse & buggy are much cheaper and safer!"
--- Circa 1905

"Planes will never become popular when you got railroads all over the place!"
--- Circa 1920

"Nobody except big corporations and government needs a computer!"
--- Circa 1975

"Cell phones will never become popular because they're too big and expensive for the average consumer!"
--- Circa 1987

"Cars will never drive themselves better than a human!"
--- Circa 2014

And I could go on and on and on.....
There is a difference. People are actually accepting the technology at a faster rate today. So while today its a big debate about driverless cars I suspect a few years after the first ones are on the road people will wonder how we ever lived without them.
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Old 05-13-2014, 02:11 AM
 
Location: Pittsburgh
18 posts, read 11,346 times
Reputation: 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
There is a difference. People are actually accepting the technology at a faster rate today. So while today its a big debate about driverless cars I suspect a few years after the first ones are on the road people will wonder how we ever lived without them.
I was making the point that the general public has showed time and time again to be REALLY bad at predicting the course of history when it comes to new technology.

But that's why the general public is what it is, and people like Bill Gates and Steve Jobs were ahead of the curve by proving everyone else wrong.
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Old 05-13-2014, 07:47 AM
 
Location: Caverns measureless to man...
6,704 posts, read 4,186,665 times
Reputation: 14936
I think most of us are discussing the issue not in terms of whether or not it is the likely course of history, but whether or not it's a good idea.
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Old 05-13-2014, 12:07 PM
 
Location: Pittsburgh
18 posts, read 11,346 times
Reputation: 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by Albert_The_Crocodile View Post
I think most of us are discussing the issue not in terms of whether or not it is the likely course of history, but whether or not it's a good idea.
That's basically irrelevant. All decisions about major leaps in technology come down to economic forecasting. History showed that many people thought cars were a bad idea in the early 1900's because of safety and cost concerns, but the economic potential was so huge it was obvious we needed them. We made a change quickly because our economic survival was at stake. The 20th century was made possible by internal combustion engine vehicles.

Self-driving cars have enormous economic ramifications. For example, the commercial trucking industry spends about 40% of it's overall expenses on driver wages and benefits. If you can eliminate those human truckers with a self driving tractor-trailer, the trucking companies can pass on those savings to their customers. That means your food, diapers, TVs, cars, etc. will all enjoy a substantial discount from simply replacing humans with robots in transporting those products from A to B. We all want cheaper stuff, right?

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Old 05-13-2014, 12:24 PM
 
Location: northwest Illinois
2,331 posts, read 2,521,768 times
Reputation: 2423
Quote:
Originally Posted by BuzzDrogg View Post
"Telephones will never work because nothing can beat a letter for communication!"
--- Circa 1880

"Automobiles will never work because a horse & buggy are much cheaper and safer!"
--- Circa 1905

"Planes will never become popular when you got railroads all over the place!"
--- Circa 1920

"Nobody except big corporations and government needs a computer!"
--- Circa 1975

"Cell phones will never become popular because they're too big and expensive for the average consumer!"
--- Circa 1987

"Cars will never drive themselves better than a human!"
--- Circa 2014

And I could go on and on and on.....
Well you could ... but I'm probably more stubborn so I will still prevail.
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Old 05-13-2014, 09:27 PM
 
Location: Pittsburgh
18 posts, read 11,346 times
Reputation: 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by midwest61021 View Post
Well you could ... but I'm probably more stubborn so I will still prevail.
LOL, nah I already proved my point. People like you are always mistaken when it comes to predicting public acceptance of future techology. Can't see the forest for the trees.

People like Bill Gates, Steve Jobs and Thomas Edison --- they can see the future before everyone else and embrace it with loving arms. In case you didnt notice, they got fabulously wealthy believing in something that 99.9% of the population (ie, folks like you) thought was a "really stupid idea".


Last edited by BuzzDrogg; 05-13-2014 at 10:47 PM..
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Old 05-13-2014, 10:22 PM
 
Location: Ohio
14,338 posts, read 12,609,130 times
Reputation: 19071
Quote:
Originally Posted by midwest61021 View Post
Well you could ... but I'm probably more stubborn so I will still prevail.
Well, I'll instruct my self driving car to beep a hello at your stubborn old self, sitting in the rocker on your front porch, waiting for your ride........while I sail on by, all by myself......in my newfangled, self-driving car!
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Old 05-14-2014, 12:34 AM
 
Location: Caverns measureless to man...
6,704 posts, read 4,186,665 times
Reputation: 14936
Quote:
Originally Posted by BuzzDrogg View Post

Self-driving cars have enormous economic ramifications. For example, the commercial trucking industry spends about 40% of it's overall expenses on driver wages and benefits. If you can eliminate those human truckers with a self driving tractor-trailer, the trucking companies can pass on those savings to their customers. That means your food, diapers, TVs, cars, etc. will all enjoy a substantial discount from simply replacing humans with robots in transporting those products from A to B. We all want cheaper stuff, right?

You're kidding! When does a company ever "pass on the savings" to the consumer? They fire the drivers and keep the money they would have paid them; that's always the way it works. If you replace every truck driver with a robot, what are the people who were relying on those jobs to feed their families going to do for a living?

You're right - that is an enormous economic ramification, but probably not the one you were hoping for (unless of course you own a trucking company).

Last edited by Mr. In-Between; 05-14-2014 at 12:48 AM..
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Old 05-14-2014, 10:02 AM
 
Location: northwest Illinois
2,331 posts, read 2,521,768 times
Reputation: 2423
Quote:
Originally Posted by Annie53 View Post
Well, I'll instruct my self driving car to beep a hello at your stubborn old self, sitting in the rocker on your front porch, waiting for your ride........while I sail on by, all by myself......in my newfangled, self-driving car!
No you won't, because I'll be DRIVING my truck right past your little toy! I jump started FOUR of those little crap boxes this past winter alone.
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Old 05-14-2014, 10:12 AM
 
Location: Caverns measureless to man...
6,704 posts, read 4,186,665 times
Reputation: 14936
Quote:
Originally Posted by BuzzDrogg View Post
You're also quite naive if you think technology paradigm shifts are postponed because of sympathy for unemployed humans. I dont think that idea worked when automobiles replaced horse & wagon dealers, or when the Internet replaced telephone switchboard operators, filing clerks, typewriter technicians, and photo processing employees.

I never said any such thing, so I'm not sure why you're even introducing that into the discussion. Perhaps you'd do better in this thread if you confined yourself to addressing what people are actually saying, rather than making up positions we never advanced so that you can argue with those imaginary assertions. If your reading comprehension is that poor, feel free to ask me to write at a more basic level so that you can perhaps more easily grasp what I'm saying.

And please spare me the naive, 6th-grade level platitudes about the elegant simplicity of the sacred free market. Of course the companies that are the first to incorporate the new technology will gain a short term competitive advantage over those who are slower to adapt, but as the new automated vehicles become the industry standard, the long term effect will be that millions of American jobs will be permanently lost. And at the end of the day they'll still charge you whatever they think the market will bear for their product.

Last edited by Mr. In-Between; 05-14-2014 at 10:32 AM..
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