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Old 10-09-2014, 06:28 PM
 
245 posts, read 273,104 times
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After finding a lovely house in Maspalomas, I found out we could be drowned there, of a Tsunami from La Palma Cumbre Vieja.

https://wet.kuleuven.be/wetenschapin...lmatsunami.pdf

La Palma Tsunami

La Palma Mega Tsunami.mov - YouTube

There are more pappers supporting this and just 2 odd fellows against it, one is a PR-man for La Palma.

Any risk is not so high I thought after a while, so we should go for it anyway, until I red now of nearby El Hierro also, as may have its own slide or trigger Cumbre Vieja, so I got cold again.

Last edited by Najt; 10-09-2014 at 06:37 PM..

 
Old 10-10-2014, 11:02 AM
 
Location: Somewhere in northern Alabama
16,836 posts, read 51,286,023 times
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Jerry Pournelle and I had a conversation on this a while back. The idea is not credible. For parts of Florida, there are islands in the way. Even in areas without direct protection there can be canceling waves from the surge coming through two or more slits. Another factor is that Florida doesn't have a great potential for tidal bore. The Bay of Fundy, for example, funnels the surges to create a substantial bore. Florida, in contrast, has an abrupt shelf and drop off to the deeper water of the Gulf Stream. Much of the energy would have interaction there and not at the coastline.

I would expect that one or two spots MIGHT get levels as great as two or three times that of a spring tide, but overall it would be a non-event.
 
Old 10-16-2014, 02:52 PM
 
Location: Londonderry, NH
41,505 posts, read 49,538,721 times
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Surfing the "non event" would be great fun for the experts.
 
Old 10-16-2014, 03:38 PM
 
Location: Wasilla, Alaska
17,850 posts, read 19,589,140 times
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The last time a mountainside fell into the ocean in Alaska in 1958 due to an earthquake, it created a 1,720 foot tall tsunami. The largest ever recorded.

See: 1958 Lituya Bay megatsunami - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Thankfully, the tsunami was largely contained within the bay itself, due to the shape of the fjord.

Islands will not stop a tsunami from impacting land on the other side of those islands. As the Japanese tsunami of 2011, the Indonesian tsunami of 2004, and the Alaskan tsunami of 1964 demonstrated. Nor do tides play a role in determining the path or strength of a tsunami.



I know that the Pacific is littered with tsunami detectors (DART buoys), several dozen of them, for good reason. However, there are only six tsunami detectors in the Atlantic, and two in the Gulf Mexico. Furthermore, those six DART buoys in the Atlantic are located close to the east coast of the US. Which means that if El Hierro or Cumbre Vieja trigger a tsunami, it will be at least six hours before a tsunami can be confirmed, and less than two hours warning before it hits the east coast of the US.

In Alaska I can get tsunami information within 15 minutes after a large quake anywhere along the Pacific Rim.

Tsunamis are created by the amount of water being displaced by either an earthquake or a landslide. Earthquakes cause the strongest tsunamis, but also the smallest in height. When in deep seas, an earthquake created tsunami may only be one or two meters above the normal sea levels, and then it gets much taller as it reaches the shallow coastline. Whereas, a tsunami created by a landslide will have a huge initial wave that will get smaller as the tsunami moves away from its starting point.

The water being displaced in an earthquake covers a much larger area than is caused by a landslide, which is why they are stronger. A landslide induced tsunami, by comparison, is going to be initially huge in height, but small in area, so it will not be as strong.

More than likely, if such an event were to occur, we can expect significant coastal damage from Maine to Florida, and from Florida through the Gulf of Mexico and those coastal States.

NOTE: While the speed and direction of the tsunami depicted in the image above is correct, I have my reservations about the wave height and the distance it will impact the coast, as it is being depicted in the image. The tsunamis created in Japan in 2011, Indonesia in 2004, and Alaska in 1964 only managed to go just over 5 miles inland, and had wave heights of less than 100 feet. Although, all three of those tsunamis were caused by earthquakes, and not a landslide.


Last edited by Glitch; 10-16-2014 at 03:59 PM..
 
Old 10-16-2014, 09:23 PM
 
Location: Somewhere in northern Alabama
16,836 posts, read 51,286,023 times
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That map is complete and utter RUBBISH.

I've seen animated recreations of the Lituya Bay event and the sloshing that occurred. Truly fascinating stuff but completely different than La Palma. Lituya Bay had displacement of water in a confined space. La Palma would have minimal new displacement of water, since the slide would be largely underwater. Further, as unconfined energy able to expand within a roughly 180 degree angle, the dissipation of the energy would follow standard inverse square law rules.

I'm not the only one calling bunkum on this. The heavyweights have weighed in:
La Palma Tsunami, The mega-hyped tidal wave story - Canary Islands

The same site gives various reasons why the story got started and what the flaws are. Only one is really needed:
"7. The computer model was based on algorithms used for under sea linear earthquakes. This algorithm is not relevant to the La Palma situation because a La Palma landslide would cause a 'single point event' which would disperse quickly." Viewers need to understand that such "errors" are INTENTIONAL to drive interest, more viewers, and more advertising revenue.

The bombast of the media and utter disregard for facts by television and movies in general has been something I have fought for years on the internet. Shark Week was just a single example among many. In the green forum you will find how I completely outted NBC News for exaggerating the effects of Greenland ice melt. If you go further back and into usenet archives, you'll find how a few of us determined that there was a period in "Modern Marvels" where the researchers/interns were obviously intentionally inserting flagrantly false science and history. Oddly, during that period the ONLY show that was well researched and factual was the one about the development of the toilet. The episodes in question have been pulled and never re-released.

I'm not the smartest cracker in the barrel, but the La Palma story set my BS detector pinging off the scale from the get go. Basic physics doesn't allow perpetual motion and it doesn't allow events beginning with X watts of energy to end up energy that is hundreds of times that initially released. Even nuclear reactions cannot end up with a greater energy output than that released through breaking of the binding energies of the atoms involved.

If you want to believe in such rubbish, fine, but recognize that Santa Claus coming down a million chimneys in one night has equal scientific standing.
 
Old 10-16-2014, 09:38 PM
 
245 posts, read 273,104 times
Reputation: 59
Sorry but that link is from a PR-man living on La Palma making PR for La Palma
Quote:
The author
The author of this website is not a scientist. He studied sciences at school and geology at college. He worked for 4 years in hydro-geology.
He lives and works on the island of La Palma and has minor interests in the promotion of tourism on La Palma. He is sick and tired of people telling him that La Palma is a dangerous place to live.
Always check sources first as with climate sceptics.
We are thinking of buying a house on GC but there are sveral serious papers against La Palma Cumbre Vieja, as may also be triggered of El Hierro, so I got cold.
 
Old 10-16-2014, 10:30 PM
 
Location: Wasilla, Alaska
17,850 posts, read 19,589,140 times
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Between 7,000 and 8,000 years ago in the Mediterranean, when a large portion of Mount Etna collapsed into the sea it created a tsunami that wiped out numerous towns and villages along the coast throughout the Mediterranean.

Ancient Tsunami Smashed Europe, Middle East, Study Says --- National Geographic News, December 4, 2006
Holocene tsunamis from Mount Etna and the fate of Israeli Neolithic communities --- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, L16317, doi:10.1029/2007GL030717, 2007 [PDF]

So the collapse of Cumbre Vieja in La Palma would not be unprecedented.

Last edited by Glitch; 10-16-2014 at 10:39 PM..
 
Old 10-17-2014, 12:07 AM
 
Location: Somewhere in northern Alabama
16,836 posts, read 51,286,023 times
Reputation: 27639
Quote:
Originally Posted by Najt View Post
Sorry but that link is from a PR-man living on La Palma making PR for La Palma

Always check sources first as with climate sceptics.
We are thinking of buying a house on GC but there are sveral serious papers against La Palma Cumbre Vieja, as may also be triggered of El Hierro, so I got cold.
I do put weight on sources, but I also know enough to know that in a battle between "sources" and common sense, common sense is typically the ultimate victor. Religious scholars have repeatedly predicted a second coming, politicians have predicted "peace in our time," inventors have predicted flying cars many times over, and so on. Also, while the website author may have a horse in the race, those that he cites as sources are independent and as I pointed out "heavyweights" in the field.

I still call bunkum. Period.
 
Old 10-17-2014, 04:54 AM
 
245 posts, read 273,104 times
Reputation: 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by harry chickpea View Post
I do put weight on sources, but I also know enough to know that in a battle between "sources" and common sense, common sense is typically the ultimate victor. Religious scholars have repeatedly predicted a second coming, politicians have predicted "peace in our time," inventors have predicted flying cars many times over, and so on. Also, while the website author may have a horse in the race, those that he cites as sources are independent and as I pointed out "heavyweights" in the field.

I still call bunkum. Period.
Okidoki I'll check it again cause of our dream-house there, but avoid timewasters in Climatechange also, such as if anyone uneducated living on fossil fuels, dispute well known scientists.
 
Old 10-17-2014, 05:04 AM
 
245 posts, read 273,104 times
Reputation: 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by Glitch View Post
Between 7,000 and 8,000 years ago in the Mediterranean, when a large portion of Mount Etna collapsed into the sea it created a tsunami that wiped out numerous towns and villages along the coast throughout the Mediterranean.

Ancient Tsunami Smashed Europe, Middle East, Study Says --- National Geographic News, December 4, 2006
Holocene tsunamis from Mount Etna and the fate of Israeli Neolithic communities --- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, L16317, doi:10.1029/2007GL030717, 2007 [PDF]

So the collapse of Cumbre Vieja in La Palma would not be unprecedented.
They warn of new ones in Med and a warning system are planned, cause they do get small ones from African quakes where 2 tectonic plates meet.
A new large one outside Lisboa/Cadiz is predicted as may drown several.

And a major quake in Istanbul.
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