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Old 06-22-2018, 09:24 AM
 
36,963 posts, read 37,830,456 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hitpausebutton2 View Post
Guess we got spoiled with it down in teh south.. Its always been natural gas or propane. We moved away from burning oil down here..

Propane is the equivalent of oil in this case because it's deliverable via truck. Both propane and oil are much more than piped natural gas.





Quote:
Well consider the Capital investment already paid for itself over and over by now, since we havent built any new power plants in a long time. Not every line in grid has been or needs to be replaced, so how can you keep counting it as investment when its already bought and paid for and funded least double to replace it.
Once again that is not how this is calculated. Those capital costs are spread out over how much power is produced from the plant. If it runs continuously for 60 years the capital investment per kWh might be 1 cent. if it runs half the time now it's 2 cents per kWh.
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Old 06-22-2018, 09:59 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thecoalman View Post
Propane is the equivalent of oil in this case because it's deliverable via truck. Both propane and oil are much more than piped natural gas.






Once again that is not how this is calculated. Those capital costs are spread out over how much power is produced from the plant. If it runs continuously for 60 years the capital investment per kWh might be 1 cent. if it runs half the time now it's 2 cents per kWh.
The problem however is that if solar gets below the variable cost of a fossil plant you run it only as needed to back up the solar. So the plant only get 25% utilization and the capital investment is now 4 cents per kwh.

You may still run the plant until end of useful life but you do not build any more. You go for things like cheap gas plants as they are still cheaper than coal due to the low utilization driving the capital cost up.

Much of this is speculation st this point. So we need to wait and let the numbers solidify. But it is unlikely that any large investment will be made in coal plants at this point.
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Old 06-22-2018, 12:37 PM
 
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We havent build a coal plant in decades.. unless somebody can find a source..
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Old 06-22-2018, 02:26 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hitpausebutton2 View Post
We havent build a coal plant in decades.. unless somebody can find a source..

This would be current to 2015:


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Old 06-22-2018, 02:28 PM
 
36,963 posts, read 37,830,456 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lvmensch View Post
The problem however is that if solar gets below the variable cost of a fossil plant you run it only as needed to back up the solar. So the plant only get 25% utilization and the capital investment is now 4 cents per kwh.

That has been the point I have been making but the cost for the solar has to ridiculously less than the fossil fuel gneration before it's cost neutral. Thus the more solar you install the more it cost you for electric.
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Old 06-22-2018, 05:25 PM
 
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Originally Posted by thecoalman View Post
That has been the point I have been making but the cost for the solar has to ridiculously less than the fossil fuel gneration before it's cost neutral. Thus the more solar you install the more it cost you for electric.
Nah. Though you may well bill more. The problem with trapped capital assets. Easy way to get rid of it is to load trapped capital assets into a separate fee on a per user basis. Collecting per kwh is a custom. Switch it to a per user fee and the problem goes away. Small users squeal though. Perhaps make it proportional to the available draw on a place.
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Old 06-23-2018, 09:55 AM
 
Location: 5,400 feet
2,070 posts, read 2,214,866 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hitpausebutton2 View Post
Never could figure out why their is limited natural gas lines up north. Everybody still using oil to heat the houses, when natural gas line would been beneficial.

It's not up north, the limitations on gas supplies are mostly in the northeast and New England. Gas is the major heating source in upper midwest states like MI, IL, OH, IN, IL, WI, etc. If I recall correctly, it provides 80%+ in many of those states. Having been involved in a couple of pipeline projects going into NY, I can only say that the states regulate pipeline construction with a heavy hand and some areas lack sufficient local gas distribution infrastructure to supply a large number of customers because of the widespread use of oil.
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Old 06-23-2018, 09:57 AM
 
Location: 5,400 feet
2,070 posts, read 2,214,866 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rstevens62 View Post
Yes, unfortunately that is the way of the world, if these large industries were not needed anymore, it would cause a domino effect on the economy, so its really up there on the level of national security...for there NOT to be anything 'too good' that comes along.

I truly believe battery technology has been suppressed due to this very reason. the Invention Secrecy Act was created in 1951 and still in force today! This is EXACTLY the kind of thing this act was created for...to ensure something 'too good' doesnt become available to the public, its absolutely crazy!

How do you explain the development of whole house batteries, such as the Tesla powerwall (now being sold at Home depot)?
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Old 06-23-2018, 05:50 PM
 
Location: The Driftless Area, WI
1,527 posts, read 577,594 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thecoalman View Post
That has been the point I have been making but the cost for the solar has to ridiculously less than the fossil fuel gneration before it's cost neutral. Thus the more solar you install the more it cost you for electric.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/01/...er-build-more/ (read the comments too)



A couple points generally not appreciated in these discussions:


You'd have to build excess capacity 4-10x demand for alternatives to be able to provide 100% of power demand, and, it take 300-500 kW-hr of power to produce a 1 sq m solar cell-- that's more than the cell will produce in it's lifetime. (references given in the cited article & comments.)
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Old 06-23-2018, 06:45 PM
 
10,269 posts, read 3,517,235 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by guidoLaMoto View Post
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/01/...er-build-more/ (read the comments too)



A couple points generally not appreciated in these discussions:


You'd have to build excess capacity 4-10x demand for alternatives to be able to provide 100% of power demand, and, it take 300-500 kW-hr of power to produce a 1 sq m solar cell-- that's more than the cell will produce in it's lifetime. (references given in the cited article & comments.)
Comeon stop the silliness. There are already in existence large contracts providing electric fully loaded at close to 2 cents per kwh. Anything under 3 cents per kwh is under the variable cost of coal or gas.

And anywhere in the SW sun belt can produce 500 kwhours in a year from a good one meter array. And it is, in time, likely to get twice as good as that.
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