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Old 10-02-2018, 10:14 AM
 
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The real problem here is human greed.

The Invention Secrecy Act was created in 1951 and still in force today, its estimated this has suppressed over 50K technologies/ inventions, many relating to vehicles, transportation, energy.

There are effective energy alternatives out there, unfortunately unless they can be 'run thru meter', they are suppressed and classified, so NO ONE can access it, naturally this is done to make sure there is only certain energy options available. Its pretty easy to understand.
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Old 10-11-2018, 07:33 PM
 
Location: Ohio
17,986 posts, read 13,233,625 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Matadora View Post
Not hardly. You are wrong and I will step you through your wrong statements that appear to be cherry picked.
Nothing is cherry-picked.

The EPICA Dome C ice cores record 8 previous Inter-Glacial Periods. All but one lasted 12,000 to 26,000 years. One ended abruptly after only 8,000 years for reasons scientists cannot explain.

The coldest Inter-Glacial Period was 7.8F warmer than the present generally reported average global temperature of 58.4F.

The warmest Inter-Glacial Period was the previous Inter-Glacial Period at 15.3F warmer than present.

If temperatures during this Inter-Glacial Period fall in the range 7.8F to 15.3F warmer there is absolutely nothing unusual or abnormal about that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Matadora View Post
"Although the Earth has not yet exceeded the temperatures of the Early Holocene (5000 to 11,000 years ago), global temperatures have risen from cooler than 95% of the Holocene at around 1900 to warmer than 72% of the Holocene in the last 100 years.

This means that, in the last 100 years, the Earths temperature has reversed a long-term cooling trend that began around 5000 years ago to become near the warmest temperatures during the last 11,000 years.
Completely irrelevant.

One of the more recent intriguing findings is the remarkable speed of these changes. Within the incredibly short time span (by geologic standards) of only a few decades or even a few years, global temperatures have fluctuated by as much as 15F (8C) or more.


For example, as Earth was emerging out of the last glacial cycle, the warming trend was interrupted 12,800 years ago when temperatures dropped dramatically in only several decades. A mere 1,300 years later, temperatures locally spiked as much as 20F (11C) within just several years. Sudden changes like this occurred at least 24 times during the past 100,000 years. In a relative sense, we are in a time of unusually stable temperatures todayhow long will it last?

[emphasis mine]

Glad You Asked: Ice Ages ? What are they and what causes them? Utah Geological Survey


That is proof of an anomaly.

The transition into the Inter-Glacial Period was abnormal, so any conclusions based on data are skewed.

We know for a fact that the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet was nearly destroyed. More than 120 miles of ice extending from the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet was totally obliterated. Most of the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet is only 8,000 years old, only starting to reform about 6,000 BCE.

Since the Eastern Antarctic Ice Sheet shows no substantial melting of any kind, we can automatically rule out any climate induced or weather related phenomenon.

It had to be a localized phenomenon.

Recently, an undersea volcano was discovered.


June 27, 2018
Tracing a chemical signature of helium in seawater, an international team of scientists funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the United Kingdom's (U.K.) Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) has discovered a previously unknown volcanic hotspot beneath the massive West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS).

https://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=295861


It's possible a volcanic eruption destroyed most of the WAIS. It's also possible a celestial phenomenon, like a small asteroid or comet impacted in the sea near the WAIS and destroyed it.

That sea levels were higher is not in question.

The first civilization in Mesopotamia was Sumer, and archeologists were astonished to find some cities were sea ports, with wharves and docks, and warehouses to store goods received or shipped.

What body of water did they serve? The Persian Gulf, which extended a couple hundred miles inland in Iraq.

By the time the second civilization arose, the Akkadians, the Persian Gulf had receded yet still covered the entire Basra Region, and the Akkadians built their cities due south of Sumer, but still on the Persian Gulf coast.

That was about 5,000 years ago. Since then, sea levels dropped further and the Persian Gulf receded to more or less its present level.

The Basra Region is still full of salt-water marshes.

Once some semblance of equilibrium was restored, the Earth returned to its regularly scheduled Inter-Glacial Period.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Matadora View Post
Furthermore, climate models predict that the Earths temperature will exceed the warmest temperatures of the Holocene by 2100, regardless of which greenhouse gas emission scenario is used."
The Holocene is not the benchmark for Inter-Glacial Periods.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Matadora View Post
Additionally, the Epica ice core data that clearly show the extreme rise (accelerating to almost straight up) of the temp/CO2 that started about 200 years ago when we started burning fossil fuels...a massive change.
Massive sudden temperature changes over the course of several years or decades are quite normal.

There have been 24 massive sudden temperature changes in the last 100,000 years alone.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Matadora View Post
Till this time for 800,000 years that we can check, the temp/CO2 lines varied up and down a little but stayed closely together and fairly flat, relatively minor variations are seen and expected.
Not true at all.

Had you bothered to actually study the EPICA Dome C ice core data you would know that.






That's one covering the period 112,000 years ago to 130,000 years ago, a span of 18,000 years. Here's another:





That covers 130,000 years ago to 150,000 years ago, a span of 20,000 years.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Matadora View Post
You have just stated 2 opinions that are not supported by any scientific data.

The evidence is at the top. I'll repeat it, because I like embarrassing people.

For example, as Earth was emerging out of the last glacial cycle, the warming trend was interrupted 12,800 years ago when temperatures dropped dramatically in only several decades. A mere 1,300 years later, temperatures locally spiked as much as 20F (11C) within just several years. Sudden changes like this occurred at least 24 times during the past 100,000 years. In a relative sense, we are in a time of unusually stable temperatures todayhow long will it last?

[emphasis mine]

Glad You Asked: Ice Ages ? What are they and what causes them? Utah Geological Survey


Oooops.

Here's another:

Climate shifts up to half as large as the entire difference between ice age and modern conditions occurred over hemispheric or broader regions in mere years to decades.


[emphasis mine]


https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC34297/


Ooops.


That two government sources, so who is the "denier" now?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Matadora View Post
You've just posted a lot of assumptions and misinformation.
I said:

The only problem created by rising sea levels is flooding of coastal areas, but it's not my fault you built cities on coastal areas before you had a clue how the Earth might actually works.

There are no assumptions or misinformation there.

Are you suggesting that the City of Miami was built in the last 2 decades?

The City of Miami was settled in 1825. You couldn't even predict weather then. It wasn't until 1901 that someone was smart enough to even suggest that weather was governed by the principles of thermodynamics and hydrodynamics.

The body of scientific evidence proves irrefutably that warmer temperatures have no negative impact on the planet.

When average global temperatures were greater than 90F the Earth was a lush tropical paradise.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Matadora View Post
It's too bad that all you want to do is spread cherry picked misinformation.

Yes temps are supposed to rise during the interglacial states...that's why they are called interglacial instead of glacial states.
And seven of the last 8 Inter-Glacial Periods had average global temperatures 7.8F to 15.3F warmer than present.

It's not my fault you can't handle reality.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Matadora View Post
Although the Earth has not yet exceeded the temperatures of the Early Holocene (5000 to 11,000 years ago),...
The early Holocene is totally irrelevant.

The Holocene is not the benchmark we use to judge how other Inter-Glacial Periods should be.

We use data from other Inter-Glacial Periods to judge how this Inter-Glacial Period should be.

The early Holocene was an anomaly, and any conclusions drawn are skewed, because it was an anomaly.
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Old 10-12-2018, 08:15 PM
 
4,200 posts, read 1,535,511 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
Nothing is cherry-picked.

....

The early Holocene is totally irrelevant.

The Holocene is not the benchmark we use to judge how other Inter-Glacial Periods should be.

We use data from other Inter-Glacial Periods to judge how this Inter-Glacial Period should be.

The early Holocene was an anomaly, and any conclusions drawn are skewed, because it was an anomaly.

"Nothing is cherry-picked" but the "early Holocene was an anomaly." Discarding data is cherry picking, is it not?

Climate deniers point towards various natural excursions in prehistorical planetary temperatures and say "the climate has always changed." But that doesn't disprove man-made forcing. It's a logical fallacy, similar to: "For millenia lightning has caused forest fires, so man cannot cause forest fires now." Of course we know that's false, just we know that natural climate change does not preclude or disprove manmade climate change forced by burning fossil fuels.
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Old 10-17-2018, 08:44 AM
 
334 posts, read 503,436 times
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Mircea, you posted a couple graphs that I would appreciate knowing where they came from. All I can tell is that they are linked from another CD discussion in the politics section.

The reason I would like to see where this came from is that in the last at least 600K years or so (also happens to be in the Dome C data time frame), there have been somewhat periodic (every 100K years) glacier to interglacier periods and I want to see if that source also gives the same detail for the interglacial period about 400 thousand years ago as the sun forcing functions of Obliquity and Ecentricity were somewhat similar to the present.

Anyhow, if you can dig up that source, it would be appreciated.

I will link to those two graphs again just using Mirceas post since I dont know where they came from but they are interesting. I could not tell what point you were making from posting these but lets examine them a little closer.

Those two graphs actually show the time from between 151K years ago to 110K years ago which is the previous interglacial warm period just prior to our current Holocene interglacial warm period. Note that the two graphs are back to back time frame.

First of all, the CO2 levels do what they typically do, rise somewhat in the warm periods, then fall in the cold periods. Please note the two different scales for CO2 between the two plots.

At the beginning of the warm period around 151K years ago, the CO2 level was about 200 PPM and slowly rises to 245 PPM by 131K years ago. During the warm period, the CO2 level rises to as high as 280 PPM, then drops back to 260 PPM as things begin to cool 111K years ago.

In our current Holocene interglacial period, we "had" CO2 levels of around 280 PPM before we came along similar to the last interglacial period. We are currently at least 10K years into our warm period and the sun cycle has already peaked and we had been in a cooling trend. CO2 levels would naturally have started to fall off. Instead, we have this enormous peak to over 400 PPM now which is NOT at all normal at least in the last 600K years.








FYI, in this graph from this source http://clivebest.com/blog/ you can see the glacier to interglacier periods. Note the warm period around 130K years ago just previous to our current warm period.

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Old 10-17-2018, 10:59 PM
 
Location: Pacific 🌉 N, 🌄W
9,994 posts, read 4,140,412 times
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I avoided responding to the Gish Gallop.

However thank you for the very intelligent observations about the NO SOURCE graphs he posted.
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Old 10-18-2018, 08:50 AM
 
334 posts, read 503,436 times
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No reference but those graphs are likely accurate. Pardon my long post but this is just really interesting stuff..

The ice age link posted earlier is also very interesting https://geology.utah.gov/map-pub/sur...t-causes-them/

That whole link is worth reading so I wont pick much stuff out... ice ages last millions of years but within those ice ages and in a much shorter time frame are periods of warm and cold (glacier and interglacier) and the driver for these warm and cold periods are likely solar power changes due to the Milankovitch cycles.

And.. we are currently in one of those long term ice ages and are experiencing one of the warm interglacier periods. Our time on the planet is called the Holocene.

This first graph come from here http://clivebest.com/blog/ and I have modified the graph with some notes hopefully making it easier to show these very interesting points..

Over on the right hand side is our present Holocene time. This graph shows the ice volume over a 600 K (thousand) year time frame and it also shows the Milankovitch solar cycles of Obliquity and Ecentricity in the blue line which as I understand it, are driving the periods of glacier and interglacier in this time frame.

I put a note in here to show the previous interglacial warm period around 130K years ago as this is the time frame that Mircea provided the ice core date temp and CO2 data plots.

I also want to point out something from the ice age link above

Quote:
Records show that ice ages typically develop slowly, whereas they end more abruptly. Glacials and interglacials within an ice age display this same trend.
You can see this in the ice volume in this plot where there is a high slope on receding ice and a slower slope when the ice is building.



A quote from the ice age link above

Quote:
For example, as Earth was emerging out of the last glacial cycle, the warming trend was interrupted 12,800 years ago when temperatures dropped dramatically in only several decades. A mere 1,300 years later, temperatures locally spiked as much as 20F (11C) within just several years. Sudden changes like this occurred at least 24 times during the past 100,000 years. In a relative sense, we are in a time of unusually stable temperatures today—how long will it last?
In this case, the temperature instabilities at 12800 years ago and at 11500 years ago occur in that time period when things are rapidly warming up. Here is yet another graph that I dont have a link for and that I have modified but it shows our current Holocene warm interglacier time period

First thing I want to point out is that the temperature instabilities referenced in the ice age link are off the scale in the graph below (plot only goes out to 11K years ago) but you can see that they occur during in the time period where there is rapid warming and is followed by a fairly stable plateau (which we are fortunately experiencing now).

The other really interesting thing to show in this graph is that we are around 10500 (10.5K) years into the relatively stable plateau. Ie, its been about 10.5K years since that rapid temperature rise period.



I put some notes on the two plots that Mircea had linked to (and we dont have a reference but I think they are great plots). These two plots are very interesting because they show the previous interglacial period in detail. As you can see in the first plot at the beginning of this post, the Milankovitch (blue line) solar forcing is different for that last interglacial period compared to this one so you would not expect things to be identical.

This graph is the time frame leading up to the previous interglacial warm period. Note the rapidly rising temperature prior to 131K years ago.



This next graph shows the previos interglacial warm period plateau from 131K year ago to 111k years ago. I also added in a note to show 10.5K years because this is where we are in our current Holocene compared to the rapid temperature rise.

I want to point out that if this interglacier period were the same as the previous one, we could expect temperatures to cool in the future like they did in the past. We have a different solar pattern now so things of course wont be identical. However, I think we have passed the apex of the current solar cycle.

Im an amateur on this stuff but it sure looks to me like we are NOT in a time period where we would expect some rapid temp increase without knowing at all what the driver was (that is.. if you completely ignore that CO2 has risen dramatically and unnaturally).

Attached Thumbnails
7 F rise for planet built into US agency report-600kyears1m.jpg   7 F rise for planet built into US agency report-addincurrentrtempandco21_3.jpg   7 F rise for planet built into US agency report-co2-temp-data-2mod.png   7 F rise for planet built into US agency report-co2-temp-data-1mod.png  

Last edited by waltcolorado; 10-18-2018 at 09:35 AM..
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Old 10-18-2018, 11:18 AM
 
334 posts, read 503,436 times
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As I mentioned, I could not figure out what the point was behind posting the ice core temp vs CO2 for the time frame from 151K to 111K before present but that CO2 data shows what things would have normally looked like. In the past, CO2 levels mostly follow temperature.

Its solubility in water. CO2 is released from the oceans as they warm. In this case, CO2 acts as a positive feedback mechanism because as it warms, more CO2 is released which causes more greenhouse energy trapping.

But any greenhouse gas can act like a driver or as feedback in a system. In our recent times, we have artificially increased greenhouse gas way over normal. Well.. it still acts like a greenhouse gas and traps energy which results in a temp rise. CO2 can act as either a feedback or driver in the climate. I personally just do not get the argument that CO2 is not a driver now.. seems obvious to me but Im not a climate scientist (I was an engineer scientist in my career).

This graph came from here 800,000-year Ice-Core Records of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) - I modified the the graph 800K year data from dome C to only show the CO2 levels over the last 800K years.

Attached Thumbnails
7 F rise for planet built into US agency report-air_bubbles_historical_mod.jpg  

Last edited by waltcolorado; 10-18-2018 at 11:44 AM..
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Old 10-18-2018, 11:50 AM
 
Location: Pacific 🌉 N, 🌄W
9,994 posts, read 4,140,412 times
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The thing that most climate deniers are missing which is blatant if they look at the past 600,000 thousand years of climate then toss in the evolution of modern humans and the industrial revolution.
Quote:
Until the past two centuries, the concentrations of CO2 and CH4 had never exceeded about 280 ppm and 790 ppb, respectively. Current concentrations of CO2 are about 390 ppm and CH4 levels exceed 1,770 ppb.

**Both numbers are much higher than at any time during the last 650,000 years.
Source: What are the greenhouse gas changes since the Industrial Revolution?

Quote:
Ancient air bubbles trapped in ice enable us to step back in time and see what Earth's atmosphere, and climate, were like in the distant past. They tell us that levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere are higher than they have been at any time in the past 400,000 years. During ice ages, CO2 levels were around 200 parts per million (ppm), and during the warmer interglacial periods, they hovered around 280 ppm (see fluctuations in the graph).

In 2013, CO2 levels surpassed 400 ppm for the first time in recorded history. This recent relentless rise in CO2 shows a remarkably constant relationship with fossil-fuel burning, and can be well accounted for based on the simple premise that about 60 percent of fossil-fuel emissions stay in the air.
Source: Graphic: The relentless rise of carbon dioxide


Lastly, with human produced CO2 the carbon atom is a different isotope compared to the carbon atom in naturally in naturally produced CO2, we can measure these isotopes.
Quote:
As an example of these isotopic fingerprints, and how they can help scientists, consider this: fossil fuels do not contain 14C. By studying how the concentration of 14C has changed in the atmosphere, scientists have determined that the atmospheric increase in carbon dioxide is dominated by fossil fuel emissions. While terrestrial plants “dislike” 13C, ocean exchange does not prefer 12C or 13C. This creates a difference in the relative ratio of terrestrial versus oceanic uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide isotopes.
Source: The Basics: Isotopic Fingerprints
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Old 10-19-2018, 09:17 AM
 
966 posts, read 535,644 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the tiger View Post
The don of humans as we know it.
Wot?????
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Old 10-21-2018, 06:14 PM
 
Location: Pacific 🌉 N, 🌄W
9,994 posts, read 4,140,412 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by waltcolorado View Post
Mircea, you posted a couple graphs that I would appreciate knowing where they came from. All I can tell is that they are linked from another CD discussion in the politics section.
He created those graphs himself and he's using them to try and claim that CO2 does not affect Temperature.

Clearly he does not know how to interpret graphs he created himself. It's clearly obvious that CO2 directly affects Temperature as clearly demonstrated in the graphs he posted.
Quote:
Originally Posted by waltcolorado View Post
I could not tell what point you were making from posting these but lets examine them a little closer.
Now we know.
Quote:
Originally Posted by waltcolorado View Post
Those two graphs actually show the time from between 151K years ago to 110K years ago which is the previous interglacial warm period just prior to our current Holocene interglacial warm period. Note that the two graphs are back to back time frame.
I am puzzled how he fails to see that CO2 was relatively stable up until 131455K where it starts to rise. The temperature up until that point was fairly stable with a few blips here and there...nothing too alarming.

Then you see a 20% increase in CO2 as shown in the graph where the CO2 level was about 200 PPM and slowly rises to 245 PPM by 131455K...what do you see the temperature doing? It's SPIKES with the increase in CO2!

I'm astounded that he does not see this.
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