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Old Today, 09:52 AM
 
Location: Maryland
964 posts, read 287,616 times
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Novelty does not establish cause and effect and, except in certain very well defined scenarios, neither does correlation mean causation.
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Old Today, 11:13 AM
 
201 posts, read 46,939 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LesLucid View Post
Novelty does not establish cause and effect and, except in certain very well defined scenarios, neither does correlation mean causation.

Perhaps not, but it does provide a clue about where to look.
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Old Today, 11:26 AM
 
343 posts, read 511,277 times
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Quote:
The reconstruction from plant macrofossils, representing more local environments, reached MTWA values above 12.5 C in contrast to today's 2.8 C.
Interesting that someone looked at fossils from the warmest part of the last interglacial period (maybe 130K years ago) and made some conclusion about temperature based on our current plant life and where it flourishes. Like all life, plants are adaptable with climate change so Im not sure how they get the resolution of .1C out of that..

Mircea, you looked at the Epica ice core data in the past and plotted temps and CO2 using Excell. What do you find if you compare a plot of the last inter-glacial period to our current inter-glacial period? What I would find interesting is the plot of temp and CO2 from say 140K to 110K years ago (envelope around the last inter-glacial) and then from 30K years ago to present to show the same 30K year range. One of these days.. Im going to figure out how to do that..

From this link https://www.co2.earth/co2-ice-core-data every inter-glacier period is a little different. This thread was about solar forcing and the solar forcing has been a little different for each period (we should discuss this more). The last line in the figure below is a proxy for the temperature and each inter-glacial is different. The solar forcing is different, why would we expect the overall temperatures or patterns for each inter-glacial to be identical.




For you statistical folks, the elephant in the room is the undeniable correlation with the increase in green house gas and the recent temperature spike. All the denial arguments attempt to ignore this and come up with some weak explanation usually based on solar forcing.

From this link Paleoclimate: The End of the Holocene RealClimate



Given the past history of the planet and patterns, we are nearing the end of the current inter glacial period and were likely to cool. All of a sudden there is a super fast warming which has the obvious correlation to human influence and primarily green house gas (ie CO2). Personally if the planet stayed exactly the way it is now I would be rather pleased. A cooling going into the next glacier period is just not going to support the exponentially increasing number of people on the planet. Unfortunately I am pretty sure we are just going to find out because doing anything has a cost which would slow financial growth.

This guy presented somewhat of an interesting idea (http://clivebest.com/blog/ I will have to dig up the exact place) that we could be engineering the climate by controlled releases of CO2. Sort of like adjusting the blanket on the bed as things got colder. Of course.. at some point sources for greenhouse gas (fossil fuel) will run out and we will go into the next glacier period anyhow.. but at least we could have extended the party for a while.
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Old Today, 11:49 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
Such changes are not unprecedented.

It happened during the last Inter-Glacial Period, too. Here are some peer-reviewed scientific articles of interest:

To me what's of primary concern here is not that the change is happening, but the rapidity with which it is changing. For humans it's the rate that matters. If the last Inter-Glacial Period change took place over a span of tens of thousands of years, that's hardly comparable in terms of its impact to the modern era which has spanned a century or so. We can learn some things from that transitional period, sure, but we also need to look at climate changes spanning a century or less.
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Old Today, 12:55 PM
 
Location: Bel Air, California
20,534 posts, read 20,716,704 times
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Originally Posted by Mike555 View Post
Molten Sun lava? I don't know if you're being serious or not. Lava is molten rock. The Sun is not a rock but is a sphere of ionized hydrogen and helium. What you are referring to as 'sun lava' shooting out from the Sun is actually a Coronal mass ejection which is a large-scale solar event involving an ejection of hot plasma mostly from the Sun's surface. A powerful enough Coronal mass ejection striking the earth can cause power outages and fry electrical systems as well as create spectacular aurora borealis and aurora australis.

None of which has anything to do with the Sun entering a rapid expansion phase.
thanks Mike, that's a bit of relief and hopefully I can get my old job back
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Old Today, 12:59 PM
 
Location: Pacific 🌉 N, 🌄W
10,257 posts, read 4,288,613 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by waltcolorado View Post
Mircea, you looked at the Epica ice core data in the past and plotted temps and CO2 using Excell. What do you find if you compare a plot of the last inter-glacial period to our current inter-glacial period? What I would find interesting is the plot of temp and CO2 from say 140K to 110K years ago (envelope around the last inter-glacial) and then from 30K years ago to present to show the same 30K year range.
All he did was cherry pick a very narrow data set to show from the EPICA Dome C Ice Core. I've generated a graph in excel of ALL the data from the EPICA Dome C Ice Core 800KYr to show how disingenuous climate deniers are. Sorry if it's too tiny to read but it's a lot of data and I had to shrink the image to snip it. See the tiny yellow area I highlighted? That's time frame he cherry picked from. The Red on the graph represents Temp and the Blue represents CO2

Here is the Abstract that comes straight off of the data set from the EPICA website.

Quote:
Abstract

Changes in past atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations can be determined by measuring the composition of air trapped in ice cores from Antarctica. So far, the Antarctic Vostok and EPICA Dome C ice cores have provided a composite record of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels over the past 650,000 years.

Here we present results of the lowest 200m of the Dome C ice core, extending the record of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration by two complete glacial cycles to 800,000 yr before present. From previously published data and the present work, we find that atmospheric carbon dioxide is strongly correlated with Antarctic temperature throughout eight glacial cycles but with significantly lower concentrations between 650,000 and 750,000 yr before present.

Carbon dioxide levels are below 180 parts per million by volume (p.p.m.v.) for a period of 3,000 yr during Marine Isotope Stage 16, possibly reflecting more pronounced oceanic carbon storage.

We report the lowest carbon dioxide concentration measured in an ice core, which extends the pre-industrial range of carbon dioxide concentrations during the late Quaternary by about 10 p.p.m.v. to 172–300 p.p.m.v.


When the Earth comes out of an ice age, the warming is not initiated by CO2 but by changes in the Earth's orbit. The warming causes the oceans to release CO2. The CO2 amplifies the warming and mixes through the atmosphere, spreading warming throughout the planet. So CO2 causes warming AND rising temperature causes CO2 rise. Overall, about 90% of the global warming occurs after the CO2 increase.


Quote:
Originally Posted by waltcolorado View Post
For you statistical folks, the elephant in the room is the undeniable correlation with the increase in green house gas and the recent temperature spike. All the denial arguments attempt to ignore this and come up with some weak explanation usually based on solar forcing.

From this link Paleoclimate: The End of the Holocene RealClimate

Given the past history of the planet and patterns, we are nearing the end of the current inter glacial period and were likely to cool. All of a sudden there is a super fast warming which has the obvious correlation to human influence and primarily green house gas (ie CO2).
Amazing that elephant in the room appears to be invisible to the deniers and folks who don't really understand how to interpret science.
Attached Thumbnails
Global warming or expanding Sun?-epica-dome-c-ice-core-800kyr  

Last edited by Matadora; Today at 01:36 PM..
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Old Today, 01:16 PM
 
445 posts, read 192,115 times
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I'm really enjoying everyone's input. Some of these posts are WAAYYY over my head though. I hope everyone has a great day!!
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