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Old 07-04-2019, 10:06 PM
 
Location: Martinsburg, West Virginia
24 posts, read 3,172 times
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The Drake Equation has too many unknowns in it to be calculable. Just the Milky Way galaxy, never mind the rest of the universe, has an estimated 200 to 400 billion stars. The odds of NO life "out there" are infinitesimal in my estimation. I would think that intelligent life would be rare, but then again the Milky Way is vast. So even rare would be hundreds to thousands of civilizations or at least something akin to whales and dolphins in intelligence, maybe birds. Regarding UFOs and the like, Carl Sagan put it best: "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof." Europa, one of Jupiter's big moons, covered in ice with an ocean beneath the ice shell, is the most likely place for life off Earth in our solar system.
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Old 07-05-2019, 02:54 AM
 
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The quantities involved in the universe are so unimaginably vast tyat the impossible eventually becomes inevitable.

Our existence is proof that a tornado really can spin through a junkyard and assemble a working airplane.
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Old 07-05-2019, 09:59 AM
 
10,669 posts, read 2,725,203 times
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Originally Posted by Jorge ChemE View Post
According to the Scientific Community, there is a consensus that there is still no proof of extraterrestrial life. This is at least what has been said from SETI. Our culture and entertainment have been spreading the alien and UFO presence during the last decades. But the NASA website states: "But that extraterrestrial presence on regular display is, of course, a fiction. No life beyond Earth has ever been found; there is no evidence that alien life has ever visited our planet. It’s all a story."

Continuing with the Fermi Paradox, the question that should be answered but still we don't have an answer is: Where are they? There are some hypotheses giving possible solutions to this problem. The following one is not probably among the most plausible solutions but is the scariest one I have found about this topic:

The Dark Forest: A terrifying explanation of why we haven't heard from aliens yet.

While Fermi Paradox asks where are the aliens? the Dark Forest solution says we should pray we never find them. This solution is a bit darker than the others. The Dark Forest solution explains why we haven't heard from aliens by positing that they are purposefully keeping quiet. The reasoning is laid out best in the science fiction novel The Dark Forest, by Liu Cixin. In the novel is laid out the following principles:

1- All life desires to stay alive.
2- There is no way to know if other lifeforms can or will destroy you if given a chance.
3- Lacking assurances, the safest option for any species is to annihilate other life forms before they have a chance to do the same.

The reasoning behind this solution is explained in this paragraph from the novel: "The universe is a dark forest. Every civilization is an armed hunter stalking through the trees like a ghost, gently pushing aside branches that block the path and trying to tread without sound. Even breathing is done with care. The hunter has to be careful, because everywhere in the forest are stealthy hunters like him. If he finds another life—another hunter, angel, or a demon, a delicate infant to tottering old man, a fairy or demigod—there's only one thing he can do: open fire and eliminate them."

We've been screaming our existence to the cosmos for almost one hundred years now. Any aliens within a one hundred light year radius of us would be receiving a barrage of radio signals from our direction. Should we stop broadcasting our existence to the universe too then? Well, just to remember, we sent out to space the "Arecibo message" in 1974, an interstellar radio message carrying basic information about humanity and Earth:



This can be a fictional solution but... Stephen Hawking and a roster of dozens of other scientists have warned against searching so boldly for extraterrestrial life. A petition has been signed to prevent humans from actively sending signals into space, disclosing information about us and our location.
How do you explain all the very old sightings, ones that date back to B.C. times then? This was LONG before humans sent out any transmissions and also LONG before we had any kind of aircraft.


Whats interesting about these older historical reports, they came from all over the world...at a time when communication across continents was not that efficient, so whatever these things are, they have been here for a long time.
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Old 07-06-2019, 04:44 PM
 
640 posts, read 294,008 times
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Originally Posted by rstevens62 View Post
How do you explain all the very old sightings, ones that date back to B.C. times then? This was LONG before humans sent out any transmissions and also LONG before we had any kind of aircraft.

Whats interesting about these older historical reports, they came from all over the world...at a time when communication across continents was not that efficient, so whatever these things are, they have been here for a long time.
This is the Collins definition for the term UFO: "A UFO is an object seen in the sky or landing on Earth which cannot be identified and which is often believed to be from another planet". In this definition, is believed to be from another planet, but originally is an object seen in the sky or landing on Earth which cannot be identified. The condition cannot be identified does not necessarily mean that is extraterrestrial.

Let's assume/suppose that at least some of the sightings are genuine, and real (althought there is no official evidence approved by scientific community). They may have another explanation: human time travellers. In my opinion this is more plaussible according to what we know. The humanoid bodies may be a human evolution and as far as I know physics does not contradict the realization of space-time travelling and/or time travelling. In other words physics allows time-travelling because thanks to special relativity, today we know that time is another dimension such as space dimensions. A future civilization capable of deforming the space-time and building something similar in concept like a wormhole proposed for the first time by Einstein-Rosen is just a hypothesis, but has been discussed nowadays. We still know that humans are intelligent species and is also proven that our technology is evolving exponentially. Why not thinking that this is a more plaussible explanation that the extraterrestrial visitors? Even in the hypothetical case scenario that UFO sightings were real, the human time travelling wouldn't explain the intelligent extraterrestrial evidence.

The Prof. of Physics, PhD. Michael Denin made this statement: "... But the bottom line is, it takes huge amounts of energy to create these. Imagine taking all of Jupiter now, its entire mass, and converting that to energy. You know, you are talking millions and millions of times more energy than you have in a nuclear bomb". We had an estimated lower bound of 18.99 TW for the average total human power output in 2017, equivalent to a value of 0.7279 on Kardashev scale, that means humankind as we know today doesn't even reach type I civilization on Kardashev scale. It was estimated that we will reach the type I civilization in 100 to 200 years. A civilization capable to extract Jupiter's mass energy is suggested to be at least a type II civilization "A civilization capable of harnessing the energy radiated by its own star". Such civilization type would be hypothetically reached by humankind in around 1,000 to 10,000 years and that would explain why those human time travellers would have such advanced technologies that can hide their presence or confuse us with our antiquated knowledge of today. It would be the equivalent of natural disasters in respect to ancestral human civilizations explanations, which attributed them to the action of divinities.
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Old 07-07-2019, 01:38 AM
 
10,669 posts, read 2,725,203 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jorge ChemE View Post
This is the Collins definition for the term UFO: "A UFO is an object seen in the sky or landing on Earth which cannot be identified and which is often believed to be from another planet". In this definition, is believed to be from another planet, but originally is an object seen in the sky or landing on Earth which cannot be identified. The condition cannot be identified does not necessarily mean that is extraterrestrial.

Let's assume/suppose that at least some of the sightings are genuine, and real (althought there is no official evidence approved by scientific community). They may have another explanation: human time travellers. In my opinion this is more plaussible according to what we know. The humanoid bodies may be a human evolution and as far as I know physics does not contradict the realization of space-time travelling and/or time travelling. In other words physics allows time-travelling because thanks to special relativity, today we know that time is another dimension such as space dimensions. A future civilization capable of deforming the space-time and building something similar in concept like a wormhole proposed for the first time by Einstein-Rosen is just a hypothesis, but has been discussed nowadays. We still know that humans are intelligent species and is also proven that our technology is evolving exponentially. Why not thinking that this is a more plaussible explanation that the extraterrestrial visitors? Even in the hypothetical case scenario that UFO sightings were real, the human time travelling wouldn't explain the intelligent extraterrestrial evidence.

The Prof. of Physics, PhD. Michael Denin made this statement: "... But the bottom line is, it takes huge amounts of energy to create these. Imagine taking all of Jupiter now, its entire mass, and converting that to energy. You know, you are talking millions and millions of times more energy than you have in a nuclear bomb". We had an estimated lower bound of 18.99 TW for the average total human power output in 2017, equivalent to a value of 0.7279 on Kardashev scale, that means humankind as we know today doesn't even reach type I civilization on Kardashev scale. It was estimated that we will reach the type I civilization in 100 to 200 years. A civilization capable to extract Jupiter's mass energy is suggested to be at least a type II civilization "A civilization capable of harnessing the energy radiated by its own star". Such civilization type would be hypothetically reached by humankind in around 1,000 to 10,000 years and that would explain why those human time travellers would have such advanced technologies that can hide their presence or confuse us with our antiquated knowledge of today. It would be the equivalent of natural disasters in respect to ancestral human civilizations explanations, which attributed them to the action of divinities.
I really have been meaning to start using UAP instead of UFO, thats the standard term used today, when discussing these things.


As far as human time travelers, Ive said a few times on here, this is actually a pretty realistic possibility to explain what these are, it would virtually explain every aspect of the reports, including the secrecy surrounding this, and it would really explain a BIG mystery imo, (the fact that their 'aircraft' technology doesnt ever appear to change, over 100s and 1000s of years).


I wouldnt pay too much attention to the technology requirements stated( in an effort to debunk the theory), if they were in fact, time travelers from the future, there is NO WAY a civilization living in current times, would ever be able to understand a technology that is 100s or 1000s of years ahead of them, it would ALWAYS look impossible, totally impractical (by current standards and understandings of how things work).


Just to reiterate though, I never said I believed these things were from some far off place or planet, my theory was 'they are closer to home in origin', but we just do not know where they reside at (whether its a physical place thats impossible for us to reach, like the ocean depths), or if its 'something else', like another dimension, but on a much smaller scale, sort of like 'on a hidden continent, right in the middle of our world', but we just do not yet know how to SEE it. (hopefully I conveyed what Im trying to say, its hard to put into words).
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Old 07-09-2019, 06:44 AM
 
Location: Pennsylvania USA
400 posts, read 272,645 times
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I wouldn't get too hyped-up about the Fermi Paradox. It is too much for the human brain to comprehend. We are here to make our world a better place, to enjoy ourselves within reason, to further our knowledge, and to continue our existence. If there is intelligent life in the universe, even in our own galaxy, that fact is likely irrelevant. Humans will likely never have any meaningful interaction with intelligent life due to the vast distances involved in space. Although, there is the possibility of discovering a new technology (wormholes/FTL travel/artificial intelligent life).

Last edited by g500; 07-09-2019 at 08:14 AM..
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Old 07-09-2019, 08:39 AM
 
Location: Upstate, NY
609 posts, read 262,402 times
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Fascinating conjectures. If factual, my opinion is these things may be probes of some sort. We are sending/ have sent probes to other planets and into outer space. Seems logical an advanced civilization would do the same. That being said I don’t really believe it is happening but am open to the possibility.

Regarding advanced civilizations I’ve read one major challenge would be to age without destroying itself. This may be a human theme, who knows. But the ways things are going here it doesn’t seem likely we will last that long.
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Old 07-09-2019, 06:22 PM
 
10,669 posts, read 2,725,203 times
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Originally Posted by dcfas View Post
Fascinating conjectures. If factual, my opinion is these things may be probes of some sort. We are sending/ have sent probes to other planets and into outer space. Seems logical an advanced civilization would do the same. That being said I don’t really believe it is happening but am open to the possibility.

Regarding advanced civilizations I’ve read one major challenge would be to age without destroying itself. This may be a human theme, who knows. But the ways things are going here it doesn’t seem likely we will last that long.
If these things were from some far off place, another planet or system, we would have seen an official contact long ago.


If you look at our history, when civilizations first see other, they meet and engage the other civilization, they DO NOT hide, and pop in and out and then vanish again, and continue this behavior for centuries!


What we are seeing (and discussing here) is 'something else'.



I believe they originate here on earth, but they 'reside' in a place that is inaccessible to our civilization/ technology,(that could be in the ocean depths, or maybe like some alternate dimension, but much smaller in scale (think of where the Black Panther lives in Avengers, something like that).


My other theory, is they are time travelers from a future civilization (this would actually explain most of the aspects of what we are seeing, such as why they do not make contact, why their visits are short and quick, why their technology never seems to progress).
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Old 07-14-2019, 06:04 AM
 
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Life - at least, intelligent life that can reasonably expect to broadcast, either intentionally or otherwise - appears to be very rare. How rare? We don't know, because nothing can be extrapolated from the one positive data point we have (Homo sapiens on Earth).

It is possible that the universe teems with life numerically, though at a rate of less than one intelligent civilization per galaxy. Or even somewhat more. There could be an average of a dozen per galaxy, and one would still expect to find the occasional galaxy with just one (the number would, of course, vary). One of those unusual galaxies could, by chance, be ours. Perhaps intergalactic travel is an insurmountable barrier, which is why all our fellow civilizations under such a scenario are beyond direct contact. Of course, that doesn't explain the apparent lack of galaxy-spanning Kardashev III civilizations out there (and we've looked). It's even possible that they're out there in abundance and we just don't see them (the They're Hiding hypothesis), though the uniformity of action among them all required for this to be so defies all logic. The We Cannot Understand Their Advanced State is another hand-wave, one that ignores that civilizations should be random in their levels of development, some of which should therefore be somewhat but not greatly beyond our own, and thus detectable. And that trite old analogy about ants being oblivious to humanity makes no sense because ants aren't sentient.

It is even possible that we are alone, though this cannot every be known (the universe is too big to examine at once - by the time we got to the end of it, endless numbers of new systems would form, and billions of years would have elapsed on ones we did check, an interval during which intelligent life might have arisen on one or more of them). The idea that others like us must be out there because there's so man places makes the assumptions that the inverse of the odds of life developing in a given system significantly exceeds the number of systems in the universe. But we our sole data point, we have no idea as to the odds. Our own existence proves that those odds are non-zero, but says nothing about how infinitesimal they might nonetheless be. Some people are dissatisfied with such realities.

This is a question fraught with emotion. Some are horrified by the idea of Earth being unique (or so exceedingly rare as to be effectively so) that they deny the possibility for that reason alone. Others place great importance on humanity being unique (often religious in nature, though this seems to be diminishing - typical dogmatic accommodation) that they deny others might exist based on that perceived importance alone. Naturally, beliefs based on emotion rather than the evidence is nonsensical.

Note: David Brin's 1982 treatment on the issue of The Great Silence (from beyond) remains excellent despite its age.
https://www.researchgate.net/publica...telligent_Life
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Old Yesterday, 09:36 AM
 
Location: Missouri, USA
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Thanks for the above, and all the other ideas.

Here are my thoughts.

Point #1. Compared to the billions of years the universe has been around, it would take very little time for aliens to have spread across the Milky Way Galaxy. Furthermore, unless forms of faster than light travel technology are impossible, including wormhole technologies that allow ships to essentially cheat and travel great distances instantaneously without, technically, breaking the light speed limit, I don't know why aliens from other galaxies wouldn't have found their way here either.

The below link describes the math of humanity expanding throughout the galaxy. Here's the end finding:

The number of ships will double every 100 years, and after about 30,000 years there will be as many ships as there are stars in the Galaxy.
https://www.open.edu/openlearn/scien...ise-the-galaxy

Assuming faster than light speed is impossible, the Milky Way galaxy is only about a hundred thousand light years across, so it seemingly wouldn't take long to expand across it.

Due to the above, an important point to remember is that when we're talking about explanations for why we haven't detected aliens yet (provably, at least) any explanations need to limit all aliens from contacting us, or spreading across the galaxy in noticeable ways, not just some, because if the rule doesn't apply to all aliens the ones it doesn't apply to could swiftly expand all throughout the galaxy.


Point #2. Earth is estimated to be about 4.5 billion years old. The earliest evidence for life on Earth is 3.7 billion years old...but there are hints that life evolved much earlier, perhaps 4.1 billion years ago. With life evolving that early and enduring all the chaos Earth has gone through, I don't see how microscopic life, at least, wouldn't be pretty common throughout the galaxy.

Point #3. Humans are the only species on our planet capable of spaceflight, and there are a lot of possible ways our own technology will drive us into extinction. We've evolved very late in Earth's history.

Keeping that in mind, I would suspect that microscopic life is extremely common, but life capable of spaceflight is extremely rare, and only forms on planets with extremely rare and stable conditions, and only after other large multicellular life has been thriving for an immense amount of time. Also, before it can achieve interstellar colonization, I'm going to take a shot in the dark and say that there's, maybe, a 50/50 chance that the civilization's own technology will destroy itself. I'd say there's an additional, but smaller chance, the species' own technology will destroy itself once it begins to colonize space. Yeah...societies will be able to spread out further, but they'll also get access to bigger guns. That said, the primary threat I'd see would come before the species spreads into space because I'm assuming the advanced technologies and abundant expansion options (stemming almost entirely from that advanced technology) would reduce a lot of reasons for conflict. Most importantly, I'm thinking that once the species begins expanding into space they'll primarily be interested in living in space stations rather than on planets, because you can destroy a planet and use the resources to house many more people in space stations than you could house people just living on the planet. On a planet, you pretty much just have the surface and a little ways underground and then everything on the interior is just wasted resources.

With most of the species living in space stations rather than on planets, that removes almost all the threat of genetically engineered diseases and plagues of nanobots and things like that which might be concocted by terrorist groups or something else.


I see good reason to believe that a noteworthy percentage of alien species would not destroy themselves though...because while I can imagine plenty of ways a species could use its technology to kill most of its population, due to nuclear war or environmental problems, I can only think of one likely way a species could use its technology to drive itself into extinction suddenly: genetically engineered diseases. I can't see that happening in all instances though, and that ceases being a threat to the species' survival once they expand into space. When experts talk about radiation from widespread nuclear war, they don't talk about all life going extinct. Instead, they just talk about things like rising cancer rates. When experts talk about threats of global warming, they talk about vast swatches of the Earth becoming extremely difficult to live in, and mass immigration and lots of people dying, but they don't talk about Earth life going extinct all at once, typically. When people talk about environmental potentially problems killing off phytoplankton in the ocean that produces most of Earth's oxygen, they talk about Earth still having centuries before the oxygen runs out...plenty of time for humanity to build some kind of replacement.


So I think the only major threat to the survival of a complex tool-using species are genetically engineered diseases...although there are several other threats that could leave more people dead than alive.


So, I think that if there were more than just a few species with human-level intelligence that have developed, at least one of them probably would have made it to the point of expanding into space and being free from its primary dangers and it would have had the option of expanding all throughout the galaxy by now.


Point #4. My assumption is therefore that FTL travel, whether through wormholes or other means, is impossible and no species with human-level intelligence, besides humans and our genetic cousins, have evolved in our galaxy. If they exist in other galaxies, they might come here eventually. Perhaps they'll use giant mirrors to turn their solar system's star into a propulsions system and slowly push their entire solar system in our galaxy's direction, and maybe make it here in another billion years or so.


Point #5. If the above is false, and there are other spacefaring civilizations in our galaxy, I propose the following hypothesis, which I'm kind of proud of because I can't think of anything cripplingly wrong with it, and I haven't heard of anyone else, expert or otherwise, stating a similar explanation so far:
__________________________________________________ _______________________________

Point #6A: My primary grievance with many explanations for why aliens might not have expanded all throughout the galaxy and contacted us yet is that many of these explanations assume that aliens will be driven by their evolved instincts to procreate and survive. I vehemently disagree with that assumption. Aliens will presumably be members of quite ancient societies, just because of how ancient the universe is and how unlikely it would be that two young civilizations would exist at the same time in such an ancient universe. They will have had plenty of time to have removed any undesirable aspects of their personalities, through genetic modification, or simple social training. A species whose entire populace desires to perpetually produce children at a similar rate as their ancestors who needed to rapidly produce children to replace their frequently death rates would not do well in an environment in which there is little, if any, natural death.

Their governments would, quite likely, place limitations on childbirths. The populace would then, quite likely, begin to genetically engineer away their own desire for offspring.

If they allowed anyone to ignore these procreation limits, those groups could swiftly spread across the galaxy and soon dwarf the parent civilization, so it could very well be that the parent civilization could go very far to stomp out that kind of rebellion.


Point #6B: Life is not inherently better than non-life. I propose that many alien species will not perceive life as worth living until the life forms have passed the following stages:


Stage 1: self-awareness, a theory of mind, and a moderate understanding of the world around oneself. Modern humans have reached this level. We understand the planet we live on and its important characteristics. We can use this knowledge to plan for the future, improve ourselves, and create ethical theories. Species that lack this kind of knowledge basically are just blindly driven by instinct and emotion. They're incapable of engaging in the kind of long term planning that can benefit similar beings for unemotional reasons and reasons not driven by instinct. Species with human-like levels of intelligence will often be better at making decisions about what's best for less-knowledgeable species than the less-knowledgeable species for this reason.


Stage 2: widespread society cooperation, not just for the benefit of the individual, but for the benefit of the society. Humans have mostly not reached this level yet. Our societies are not organized or cooperative enough to really get much big done.


Point #6C: Unless the species has passed those two stages, they're basically functioning like a directionless slime-mold that's incapable of making intelligent decisions for itself. Many alien societies would therefore perceive themselves as being better makers of decisions for those societies than those societies, presumably.


It makes sense to fear death because it ends your ability to complete your goals. It makes sense to describe murder as wrong because it breaks the bonds of trust holding society together, often causes pain, both emotional and physical, and can kind of function as a theft of dreams - of one's life goals. It's a form of stealing.


However, if a species from outside the society destroys another species instantaneously, and painlessly, there is no emotional or physical pain and no bonds of trust have been broken. This might, therefore, be a very desirable behavior for aliens...aliens interested not in an instinct-driven goals or predatory goals...but aliens interested in assisting the species they destroy.


Or, maybe they let all the human-level civilizations survive but merely destroy all non-self-aware multicellular life. At least humans can have reasonable views of what's best for us, and we stand a chance of achieving widespread societal cooperation. Most of the animal kingdom might be described as just blindly moving along, competing to yank other members of their species into the eternal gladiatorial arena known as Darwinian Evolution without the consent of the organism being produced. I don't see a huge amount of difference between what goes on in the natural world on a daily basis and human beings tossing a bunch of their fellow humans with severe mental problems into the wild without any technology and knowledge and letting them procreate whenever they want and, occasionally, eat each other.


Point #7. I think humanity has a moral duty to expand throughout the universe, as far as possible, destroying or genetically modifying most life forms that lack self-awareness. I think we have a duty to survive long enough to expand into space and attempt this...to re-create the universe into something better than Mother Nature's blind experiments created it as...and I wouldn't be surprised of aliens have similar goals. For these reasons, aliens might not be common because earlier species of aliens have developed spaceflight and been wandering the universe destroying many of their fellow life forms...as what they perceive as acts of kindness.

Last edited by Clintone; Yesterday at 09:45 AM..
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