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Old 01-22-2009, 06:17 PM
 
Location: Charleston, WV
3,105 posts, read 6,490,491 times
Reputation: 830

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Did you happen to catch this on MSN? Love the TV and five computer ones.

Quote:
I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
Thomas Watson, president of IBM, 1943

"Television won't be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night."
Darryl Zanuck, executive at 20th Century Fox, 1946

"Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within 10 years."
Alex Lewyt, president of vacuum manufacturer Lewyt Corp., 1955

"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."
Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977

"Almost all of the many predictions now being made about 1996 hinge on the Internet's continuing exponential growth. But I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse."
Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com, 1995

"Two years from now, spam will be solved."
Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft, 2004



"Apple is already dead."
Nathan Myhrvold, former Microsoft chief technology officer, 1997

The 7 Worst Tech Predictions of All Time - Page1 -* MSN Tech & Gadgets - News and Features



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Old 01-25-2009, 09:26 PM
 
Location: sowf jawja
1,940 posts, read 7,970,883 times
Reputation: 1037
that nuclear powered vacuum would be 'friggin sweet. i'd use that sucker to back-feed my electrical system.
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Old 01-26-2009, 11:21 AM
 
1,047 posts, read 2,046,108 times
Reputation: 412
I'm still waiting on my jet-pack...
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Old 01-26-2009, 03:29 PM
 
573 posts, read 568,472 times
Reputation: 199
If it makes you feel better ...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Albert Einstein, 1932

“There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable.
It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will.”
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Old 01-26-2009, 04:01 PM
 
Location: Maryland not Murlin
8,187 posts, read 21,752,379 times
Reputation: 6116
"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
Thomas Watson, president of IBM, 1943

In 1943 this was probably an accurate statement seeing as how back then a basic computer would take up an entire building and cost the equivalent of a couple of million dollars.

"Television won't be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night."
Darryl Zanuck, executive at 20th Century Fox, 1946

Once again, this could possibly be considered an accurate statement given the year it was made. Back then, people only tuned into the radio for maybe an hour a day. The same was probably thought about television.

"Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within 10 years."
Alex Lewyt, president of vacuum manufacturer Lewyt Corp., 1955

Chrysler had an idea to produce a nuclear powered car in the 50's. I believe that the idea got scrapped because they couldn't figure out how to build a small enough reactor.

"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."
Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977

I don't know; once again this is a sign of the times and not forward thinking. In 1977 a home computer had so little processing power that it was basically an expensive calculator.

"Almost all of the many predictions now being made about 1996 hinge on the Internet's continuing exponential growth. But I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse."
Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com, 1995

Eh, the internet in 1995 was rather boring in comparison to today, but at least if you did a search back than you got what you were looking for.

"Two years from now, spam will be solved."
Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft, 2004

I can guaranty that the person who solves the spam problem once and for all will become richer than Bill Gates. Well, maybe not.

"Apple is already dead."
Nathan Myhrvold, former Microsoft chief technology officer, 1997

It sort of was in 1997, at least on the home market front. The only people that I knew of who used Macs in '97 were graphic design students.

Albert Einstein, 1932

“There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable.
It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will.”
From his perspective, this is true. However, nuclear energy works in a different way; radioactive fuel rods are submersed into a tank of water. Basically, to keep this non-scientific, the atoms in the rods are vibrating at such a high frequency that they heat up the water in the tank, creating steam. The steam travels through pipes until they reach a turbine. The force of the steam turns the turbine and the turbine creates electricity. The steam than cools, turns back into liquid and flows through a pipe back to the tank.
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Old 01-26-2009, 07:59 PM
 
1,111 posts, read 4,152,813 times
Reputation: 800
There was a comment made by Michael Dell about Apple at a time when Dell was the #1 computer maker...

To paraphrase, he pretty much said that Apple should return the money to everyone who bought their stock because Apple was essentially worthless.

I wondering if Michael Dell still thinks Apple is a worthless company today.
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Old 01-27-2009, 11:31 PM
 
Location: Cary, NC
1,036 posts, read 3,628,581 times
Reputation: 503
K-Luv: I get your point, and its valid... but I think the point of the quotes was the lack of thinking about how things might change.

I could say a lot of things today, like there is no need for anyone to have a computer faster than X or that there is no need for more than Y satellites. While maybe they are true at this moment, making such a blanket statement without regard for what computers or other technology might be used in the future is what makes it a lame prediction.

Really, the president of computer makers couldn't envision why anyone might ever want a computer in the home or why the world might need more than 5? Did they thin that vacuum tubes would be around in 100 years or that computers would never progress?

Its like the Wright Brothers inventing the airplane and then saying they don't see the need for more than a dozen of them to ever be built.
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Old 01-28-2009, 05:50 AM
 
Location: Maryland not Murlin
8,187 posts, read 21,752,379 times
Reputation: 6116
Quote:
Originally Posted by rcarrillo View Post
K-Luv: I get your point, and its valid... but I think the point of the quotes was the lack of thinking about how things might change.

I could say a lot of things today, like there is no need for anyone to have a computer faster than X or that there is no need for more than Y satellites. While maybe they are true at this moment, making such a blanket statement without regard for what computers or other technology might be used in the future is what makes it a lame prediction.

Really, the president of computer makers couldn't envision why anyone might ever want a computer in the home or why the world might need more than 5? Did they thin that vacuum tubes would be around in 100 years or that computers would never progress?

Its like the Wright Brothers inventing the airplane and then saying they don't see the need for more than a dozen of them to ever be built.
Without knowing the entire context the quotes are related to it is impossible to know exactly what point the speaker was intending to get across. Quotes are often used out of context to convey a one-sided sensational blanket statement that favors the author's story or stance.

Judging by the amount of science fiction in the 60's, I think that it is safe to say that many envisioned a world of tomorrow in which gadgets were smaller and more powerful. So, I am going to assume that the reason why no one would want a PC in their 1978 and beyond homes was because of price. It was probably also assumed that as computers became more powerful, the price would increase even more so. It was rare for someone to have a computer in their home in the early 1990's. Yes many people did have them, but what was the numbers -something like only 1 in every 5 or 6 homes? Maybe less. Anyways, I knew a guy in 1994 who had a computer. It was considered top of the line and he paid around $10,000 for the whole set-up. It had a CD-ROM drive and he used to play this Star Wars game that was modeled after Doom. I remember thinking that it was the best game that I had ever seen/played: The graphics and game play were awesome and it blew anything that Nintendo or Sega was doing out of the water. That top-of-the-line 1994 computer couldn't retail for $100 today. If you had the capabilities and were to build a basic 2009 Dell or 2009 Mac (or whatever) back in 1994 it would have retailed for over $100,000. Maybe even $200,000.
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Old 01-28-2009, 03:56 PM
 
Location: Victoria TX
42,668 posts, read 71,590,043 times
Reputation: 35869
I have not been about to confirm this, but I herd that Alexander Graham Bell, very shortly after his successful demonstration of the telephone, expressed great misgiving about the future of the machine that he had hoped would aid business: "I fear that it will be used frivolously by people sending personal messages".
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Old 01-28-2009, 05:50 PM
 
Location: Maryland not Murlin
8,187 posts, read 21,752,379 times
Reputation: 6116
Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post
I have not been about to confirm this, but I herd that Alexander Graham Bell, very shortly after his successful demonstration of the telephone, expressed great misgiving about the future of the machine that he had hoped would aid business: "I fear that it will be used frivolously by people sending personal messages".
Now that is forward thinking! You got to keep in mind how the average person lived their lives during these times. When we think of the future and new technologies/gizmos we often paint that picture with what we know and desire today. Fifty or hundred years from now society will be in a different place. The average life of someone day to day will be different and I bet many people will look back and laugh at how we visioned the future; Man, what were those people thinking back in 2009!
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