Housing Bubble: Seattle & Other Cities (Pacific: transplants, real estate, 2009)

[TootsieWootsie]

When is the housing bubble in Seattle supposed to end?
Is the housing bubble all over the State of Washington or primarly in Seattle?
I had some great statistics on this last week, but, having so much already in my computer, erased it and cannot dig it up again (drats!).
Some cities in the study were to bottom out in 2009 and some have already bottomed out, but cannot remember what Seattle's was. Does anyone have this type of information?

[chris]

I would imagine it will happen here a year or two after it does in California (if it hasn't already), since prices here are being driven up considerably by the influx of transplants from there.

Still, housing seems relatively affordable and I can't see prices dropping that much except maybe for condos. You can still get brand new homes built outside of King County for 100-150k + cost of land. Even in King County you can get homes in good areas for ~ 400k (but building new is almost out of the question). Pierce county has had more and more restrictions due to growth but most other counties shouldn't have too many holdups. Low cost to build new here in the northwest should prevent it from experiencing a major 'bubble' imo since Seattle was not really hit hard by the earlier housing pullback of 90-94.

[TootsieWootsie]

I have looked on the net for information on this, but do you know of a good site that gives growth projections for Seattle's housing market?

[chris]

I don't know of any reliable forcast data for Seattle but this might be a good source for you to check out:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/realestate/

Several articles currently predict flat/no growth but I think most of that can be attributed to seasonal trends here. What people should be focusing on imo is the job market though when making a decision on real estate. Seattle's economy is doing quite well right now but that's only because it was doing not-so-well for years between 2002-2004. During that period, I believe Seattle proper lost somewhere between 3%-4% of it's population. Every article you would read in 2003 was about people burning up their savings to make their house payments, or having to sell because they couldn't find work. It was kind of depressing. That's the type of economy you have here though, one that heavily relies on companies like Boeing/Microsoft to provide good paying jobs. Things seem to be doing well currently though, although I'm sure there are many skeptics out there (including myself on some days).

[chris]

This article might be outdated, but it sums up the Seattle market well, and by area.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/hom...story2006.html

[TootsieWootsie]

Did anyone see today's Wall St. Journal? Article about Commercial Real-Estate stating that PriceWaterhouse Coopers/Urban Land Institute ranks Seattle as the most attractive for invesment real estate among 15 largest U.S. metro areas? (Today is Wed., Oct. 18th)

TootsieWootsie

[TootsieWootsie]

Great article, thanks, Chris. This gives me what I need.

TootsieWootsie

[klpeake]

I don't know about Seattle, but Clark county (vancouver area) is dropping quite a bit and has been since the beginning of June. I search their market every day and have seen homes taking $25k reductions every 2 months or so. There is a huge inventory right now and in just the last month I've started seeing that many of the new listings are coming into the market at a lower starting point (about $50k less than they would have started out at 6 months ago). As for how long it will last? I think it will depend on how fast the buyers respond to the new lower prices. Their average TOM used to be 90 days, now it's looking like more in the area of 120 days or more. I don't think that this time of year is generally a great buying time, but for an area that is entering the dreary, overcast part of the year, it might get even worse. My prediction is that sometime around Feb it will bottom out and start stabilizing in anticipation of the spring.

[silverfox]

Hi Tootsie,

The question I have for you is do you have to sell a home to come to Seattle and buy a home ?? If so .... then that for the most part is a "Lateral Move"
All things being equal you will loose some ground because of expenses in selling , buying, and moving. Depending on where you are comming from you may gain some ground if the prices of homes are higher in your current area.

The Seattle market has been very Good over the last few years, and them that go up BIG can also come down BIG. This area like many others depends on it's economy for a large part of the appreciation in RealEstate, but there has also been a growing trend of people from all over moving to the Pacific West Coast because they are not happy where they are, or the state of the job opportunities there.

As far as reading these reports on where the Markets will be in 2009 etc. Lots of Luck. To me they are a lot of HOG WASH. It is a crap shoot at best and there are so many different opinions out there you might as well throw a dart. You can find different forecasts every week depending on where you look.
If you do not currently own a home and are renting or ? I would seriously consider waiting to buy a home. JMHO. Things are already starting to turn in most Washington cities and personally I see the potential for a Recession somewhere ahead.
It all depends on your needs, your capabilities, and your outlook.......along with your Patience.

It's always a tough decision to make a move, so if you decide to do it, I wish you the best.

Silverfox

[FistFightingHairdresser]

For a lot of years Seattle had a sluggish job market but the property prices kept going. I think it's more to do with geography than economics.

Seattle is in close proximity to the ocean and the mountains. Also, the Puget Sound area is filled with obstacles (Lake Union, the Sound, the Cascades) that limit its ability to grow like a city such as Vegas or Phoenix. So there's always a boundary restricting growth.

I don't think the price of property will really ever slacken in Seattle now. It's not like the old boom-and-bust days when the only jobs were at Boeing.