The impending Seattle housing market collapse. (Kent, Redmond: assessor, refinance, house prices)

[Pittgal]

A house in our neighborhood started at 795,000 and just sold a year later at 595,000. Crazy!

[Ira500]

Actually, the biggest local price drops percentagewise are in the " low tier" market, I think the under 400,000 dollar homes....It's not that they are being sold for much less than their original asking price, it's that they are being sold for much less than a comparable house sold one year ago...So if a house sold for 600,000 dollars a year ago, that same house might sell for 535,000 dollars today. Often, the sellers or their agents think they can still get top dollar so they price it high and it lingers on the market, but other times a little more realism is involved, and it's priced low enough to begin with and sells quickly.

[70Ford]

I'm willing to bet the recent job losses around here will make a little dent in housing prices.

[Jennibc]

Originally Posted by 70Ford

I'm willing to bet the recent job losses around here will make a little dent in housing prices.

Well, my house is about to go on the market - my timing is impeccable I tell you! At any rate, I will report back on how things go. Our realtor is pricing it aggressively (translated:lower than everything else in our neighborhood - taking into account that prices have dropped more than 10% in the past year.) and it has brand new plumbing and a new roof so we'll see how competitive it is.

[509]

Originally Posted by sean98125

I've heard about the high foreclosure numbers and such, but I wonder how much of that is from people that were speculating on houses rather than buying their homes.

The statistic for sub-prime loans that has been mentioned on the business networks is 40% to illegals and 30% for second homes. So I assume the flippers are included in the second homes.

If you look at where home prices are going down nationally.....it is primarily in areas with a large illegal population or second homes.

I think most of Washington state missed out on that opportunity. In past recessions, the housing market in eastern Washington actually boomed as people moved here to for a better quality of life in retirement.

It will be interesting to see if this happens again.

[blondandfun]

Seems to me like they are about to experience a boom in high-rise condos in Seattle. I think it's great, let's all be positive, even though single family homes suck people still are tired of this suburban BS life. Given the land area of Seattle I'm shocked there are so many low-rises. Eventually, when praise God the rich Californians lay low for a while, those houses will sit empty and hopefully they can build highrises in their place to attract more normal people who work for a living and aren't just equity rich.

[blondandfun]

^--
what really angers me is this will never happen unless people take losses. Realize, most people with these expensive homes are just normal people who are nothing special... all they did was move from california to Seattle and they are no more educated than middle class, just in the right time at the right place.

I hope Obama enacts some type of program that encourages development in cities and wipes these stupid wastefull single family homes off the market... the only people that benefit off these homes are stupid fixer uppers, investors, and lucky Californians.

[eskercurve]

You're always going to have a mix of low-rise housing, single-family homes, and high density. Some prefer the space that a single family home offers. And as a newly married man who is thinking about children in the future, I've had to look hard about whether to raise them in a high density environment that also includes more crime by virtue of it being high density, or whether a SFH is more friendly.

Unfortunately I believe many of the homes that used to sell for 500k or 400k will probably drop to around 300k. It's that bad.

[Jennibc]

Originally Posted by eskercurve

Unfortunately I believe many of the homes that used to sell for 500k or 400k will probably drop to around 300k. It's that bad.

A 500K house selling for 300K is a 40% drop. I really doubt you will see that in Seattle. While other areas have seen that, Seattle has only lost 11%, it may go as high as 20% but don't expect an area that has been built out to drop 40%. There are still too many people in the area that want to become home owners and still too little in the way of supply to see that kind of drop.

[texastrigirl]

I was pleasantly surprised when my neighbor's house in Sammamish sold a few weeks ago after being on the market for over 4 months. Comping mine out on their $ per sq ft gave me a 6% drop since July 2007 and their house had no updating and according to our realtor was a bit harder to sell for the size and floorplan. Our realtor said things he has sold in our area seem to be on the uptick at this point because interest rates are low and people are getting antsy and wanting to move on that. For now anyway. When I comp ours out to what is still on the market, I see about an 8% drop and 11% in worst case scenarios for homes that need a lot of work (so probably not comparable to ours anyway). BUT I personally think there is still some drama to come so I agree with Jennibc...20% may happen but 40%...don't think so.