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Old 02-19-2011, 02:48 PM
 
Location: Itinerant
8,278 posts, read 6,256,657 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TaylorRothschild View Post
Excellent points, Gungnir. And I'd agree with your stance 100% if we lived in any period prior to the last 100 years or so. We're now so dependent on delivery of food & supplies, which themselves are dependent on telecommunications, power grid, internet, and even operational vehicles. . .that next time a big one hits, it will most certainly have a larger impact than previous ones. Read One Second After for a realistic scenario of what our society will become following a grid-destroying catastrophe. And we're talking a few days, from 1st world comforts to kill-your-neighbor-for-a-meal scene. Being prepared is both cheap and prudent, IMO.
Oh sure, we might get screwed from something that hits the things we depend on, but that's not really an ELE type scenario. It's more dead by stupidity, since we've built our very existence relying on a series of mechanisms that have inherent failure risk, and in more than one scenario critical failure across many of them caused by a common event. This to me is something we would do to ourselves, not something external, it's not going to have any impact (other than whatever it prompts us to do) on whales, lions, tigers, birds, etc. it would have a significant impact on the general human population however, in the more developed nations.
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Old 02-20-2011, 10:48 AM
 
Location: San Diego California
6,795 posts, read 7,274,103 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gungnir View Post
Oh sure, we might get screwed from something that hits the things we depend on, but that's not really an ELE type scenario. It's more dead by stupidity, since we've built our very existence relying on a series of mechanisms that have inherent failure risk, and in more than one scenario critical failure across many of them caused by a common event. This to me is something we would do to ourselves, not something external, it's not going to have any impact (other than whatever it prompts us to do) on whales, lions, tigers, birds, etc. it would have a significant impact on the general human population however, in the more developed nations.
Excellent point, there is something to be said about having to warn people that they need to prepare themselves to live without those mechanisms, at least for short periods of time, in order to ensure their survival.
If you are depending on government to save you in the event of disaster, just ask the survivors of Katrina how well that strategy works.
Having worked in the Utility industry, I know the possibility of cascade failures in the grid. If one hits a multi state area during winter, the government would not be able to do anything to help people. We have seen this winter how systems break down even without grid failure, can you imagine how bad it would be with one?
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Old 02-21-2011, 10:11 AM
 
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'Global Katrina': Biggest solar storm ever could cause power cuts for MONTHS | Mail Online
Quote:
Astronomers today warned that mankind is now more vulnerable to a major solar storm than at any time in history - and that the planet should prepare for a global Katrina-style disaster.

A massive eruption of the sun would save waves of radiation and charged particles to Earth, damaging the satellite systems used for synchronising computers, airline navigation and phone networks.

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Old 02-22-2011, 12:59 AM
 
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Spaceweather & Space Storm Threats | Solar Flare Dangers, Solar Cycle & Solar Activity | Space.com

Quote:
WASHINGTON — Space weather could pose serious problems here on Earth in the coming years, the chief of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said Saturday (Feb. 19).


A severe solar storm has the potential to take down telecommunications and power grids, and the country needs to work on being better prepared, said NOAA administrator Jane Lubchenco here at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. Lubchenco is also the U.S. Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere.


"This is not a matter of if, it's simply a matter of when and how big," Lubchenco said of the potential for a dangerous solar flare. "We have every reason to expect we're going to be seeing more space weather in the coming years, and it behooves us to be smart and be prepared."
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Old 02-22-2011, 03:21 AM
 
Location: On the Rails in Northern NJ
12,380 posts, read 26,804,080 times
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If we shut down the power grid , could we avoid the blackouts?
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Old 02-22-2011, 04:02 AM
 
Location: Itinerant
8,278 posts, read 6,256,657 times
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Quote:
"This is not a matter of if, it's simply a matter of when and how big," Lubchenco said of the potential for a dangerous solar flare. "We have every reason to expect we're going to be seeing more space weather in the coming years, and it behooves us to be smart and be prepared."
We've been seeing "space weather" since the earth formed around the sun, there is no potential for a dangerous solar flare, its a guarantee, the only question is when, and will it happen in the next year, next 10 years, next millenia next 10 millenia and so on. Statistically speaking a life threatening solar flare that does not meet my criteria of self inflicted (i.e. because we built a house of cards without evaluating effective risk) is as likely as you buying 8 weeks of lottery tickets and winning all eight weekly jackpots.

We have experienced a storm that could result in a self inflicted life threatening situation the Carrington Event of 1859, which is why I'm a little bemused that 150 years later everyone seems to be freaking out about this risk, when a 500 year average super solar storm happened only 150 years ago. This is especially true as we're about midway in the solar cycle and it seems relatively mild in comparison to previous cycles. Makes me think that someone somewhere is needing some (more) funding; the 2012 Mayan Calendar thing must be useful for something I guess.

Its also bemusing that 150 years ago Telegraph operators were getting shocks from their equipment and set alight, and nobody who designed the current electrical grid thought that there was too much to worry about with the systems they put in place. Lets put that into perspective, about the only places that had miles of wire connected to them that carried electrical power were giving shocks to people and setting them on fire.
I Wonder how many places have electrical power now...
I Wonder how long the average end run is on someone's grid tie...
I wonder what the total length of connection a grid tied house has and any over surge protection that is in that chain...

The statement by Lubchenco is totally valid, but you need to put it into context. By the same token it is a guarantee that the earth will be threatened by an "earth killer" asteroid that unless we figure something out will impact the globe, it's also a guarantee that we'll experience a planet killing high energy gamma burst from a nearby Super Nova (it might even be our own sun). However the chances of these happening in your current lifetime is infinitesimally small.
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Old 02-22-2011, 11:10 AM
 
Location: FROM Dixie, but IN SoCal
3,484 posts, read 6,495,887 times
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I have now read (rather extensively, btw) the available data, information, and speculations regarding solar flares and magnetic pole reversals. As Stephen Covey says, there are basically four categories of "things" in the universe:

1. Those that we can directly control

2. Those that we cannot control, but can influence

3. Those we can neither control nor influence, but about which we are concerned

4. Everything else

I strongly suspect that solar flares, magnetic pole reversals, et al, fit into Category 3. All we can do is accept, and adapt. Far easier said than done, of course, but if we are equipped to survive a complete power failure (etc., etc.), we can handle it.

From all I have read, the 2013 solar maximum is likely to be little more than a major annoyance/inconvenience. Again from all I have read, the most troublesome consequence of a magnetic pole reversal is that our magnetic compasses will be pointing to the present-day South (more-or-less) rather than to the present-day North.

In case you don't already know, the magnetic poles constantly migrate. That's why one has to constantly correct for the difference between TRUE north and MAGNETIC north. For example, in my present-day location the current magnetic declination is 12 degrees and 49 minutes EAST. In other words, magnetic compasses point 12 degrees and 49 minutes EAST of True North. When I first moved here in 1988, the magnetic declination was just about 15 degrees EAST.

By the same token, in the area where I grew up (the central Gulf Coast), the magnetic declination in 1987 was about 2 degrees EAST. As of today it is a bit more than 1 degree WEST.

So, and with all due respect, when it comes to solar flares and magnetic pole reversals I'm probably not gonna get my knickers in a wad.

If you want to get my attention, begin talking about changes in Earth's rotational axis. THAT, my friends, is something that would cause a severe case of knickers-in-a-wad here at Casa Nighteyes...
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Old 06-08-2011, 01:22 AM
 
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Default June 7th huge CME

Huge Sun Eruption of June 7, 2011 | Space.com
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Old 06-08-2011, 05:46 AM
 
Location: Nebraska
4,176 posts, read 10,668,567 times
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AAAAHHH! We're all gonna DIE! The sky is falling, the sky is falling!
Truthfully, we ARE all gonna die. Eventually. From something.

Thanks for the link, it was really pretty; breathtaking, actually.

I have my horse, my woodburning stove, and my kerosene lamps though, just in case.
My burning question - Will DirectTV still try to bill me if a solar flare wipes out their satellites?

Sorry, feeling mischievous today...
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Old 06-08-2011, 06:33 AM
 
29,981 posts, read 42,859,282 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SCGranny View Post
AAAAHHH! We're all gonna DIE! The sky is falling, the sky is falling!
Truthfully, we ARE all gonna die. Eventually. From something.

Thanks for the link, it was really pretty; breathtaking, actually.

I have my horse, my woodburning stove, and my kerosene lamps though, just in case.
My burning question - Will DirectTV still try to bill me if a solar flare wipes out their satellites?

Sorry, feeling mischievous today...
What is in your coffee this morning GrannySue? Almost too hot here now to have another cup.

I've been having trouble getting an AT&T signal on the cell phone and land line the past couple days. I have little doubt they'll still bill me.
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