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Some of you talk of our "allies" coming to our rescue if we were attacked or negatively affected by some major disaster of some kind. Seriously? I'm glad that belief brings you comfort, but my money would be on nearly no "ally" coming to our rescue. Possibly England. And that's stretching it. Beyond that, I'd say forget it. If you haven't noticed, most of the world is not all that fond of us. Even in countries that are "strong allies," you walk down the streets of a major city (outside of the big tourist destinations) and you are talking your life into your hands if you are identified as an American. I have a friend who recently returned from Germany. He said the city and area he was in was plain scary for "yanks," especially military "yanks." Of course, we might get help from China or Russia... although it's not the kind of "help" we'd probably want.
Point being, I wouldn't count on any genuine help from anyone outside our country, not even our neighbors... and help from very few inside our country. But, that's just me. We all have opinions, right? I just happen to have dark opinions for the most part. Most of them have been formed by studying a lot of history and by observing the people around me every day.
Still, there's plenty of land. And, if you were just concerned with your own survival, 2.5 acres is not hard to farm by hand -- you don't need large machinery or anything. Most irrigation systems are gravity-fed. Valves on dams have hand controls, in the event of a loss of power; so some places might even still have irrigation. Most well water systems can be overridden by a simple hand pump. Yes, some people might die of starvation, but not as many as some people might suggest.
Looking at big city examples: Sure, there's no farmable land on Manhattan, and yet millions of people living there. Does that mean every last person on Manhattan is going to die of starvation? No. People would sooner leave than starve to death. Saying 250 million Americans would die, because there'll be no food in the city is ridiculous.
I'm still contemplating which would be a better bug-out idea: 2.5 acres in the middle of nowhere, and a small cabin or RV; or a sailboat?
And to the comments about mining / smithing metals: Why would we have to mine? After a permanent blackout scenario, we'd be sitting on tons of scrap devices, that we would no longer have use for. Melting down metals requires a large, hot fire, and not much else. People still use these trade-skills today, so we won't be at a complete loss. Guns will be popular, however modern bullets would run out, so the old-style rifles (shooting small, metal balls) would see a renewal. Bow and arrow would be a popular tool for hunting, and protection (I've got mine near by BOB, with around 20 good arrows). Horseback riding, and horse-drawn carts would certainly make a comeback, but what about cargo bikes? An EMP isn't going to make your bicycle stop working, and it's certainly a reliable way of getting around.
ohhh young grasshopper!!! Have you really tried farming 2.5 acres by hand????I hobby farm 15 little acres with a 60 yr old tractor and a couple of horses(for fun) and it is still backbreaking labor!!!!!In my humble opinion there is a faction the screams for a return to the land ala little house on the prairie...The don't have a friggin clue.......
Yeah, what's your point? You send a messenger out who gets killed or kidnapped, or some other fate befalls the messenger. Now what?
(etc, etc, etc)
Looking for science fiction material...
Mircea
I'm going to try to keep this as NORMAL as possible.
No one -- let me repeat that slowly for you -- NNNOOOO OOONNNNE... has argued against the catastrophic results of EMP (in the case of my own post) or really even the short-term results of most of the things you've cited.
Where I begin to draw the line is with your fear-mongering and/or outright fantasy (believe me, I read your posts for any information I can glean because there IS some to be had, but it's also obvious to me you see yourself as a kind of stylized Rambo-esque king among the hordes of post-Apocalyptic fallen) of falling back into the stone age for centuries.
Here in our United States we would be far more vulnerable than lots of other places where anything more technical than a turnip is a cognate in the local language. However, rebuilding civilization WOULD, despite what I suspect are among your fondest wishes, be the most immediate desire for survivors AFTER food and security.
I'll stick with my assessment of the phases of damage, thanks loads.
Not everyone is simply going to DROP DEAD or end up cannibalized within a matter of days because of even that kind of disaster.
I dare say power would be FULLY restored in core places of authority and among the majority of military posts, minorly in the immediate, almost fully (operating at closely-restricted, authority-only levels) within a couple of weeks.
Why?
Because SINCE everyone isn't going to conveniently drop dead and crown your band the Stunning Overlords, there WILL be some organization despite a HUGE amount of chaos.
The Army isn't going to simply abandon post en masse; just as in a wilderness survival situation building a simple fire holds a calming psychological effect, so the presence of authority and some plan of action will hold the majority of folks IN PLACE for those kinds of organizations.
Okay, the entire force of the military is NOT comparable to a nation of raving, lunatic hordes; but not everyone is going to be out LOOKING to create an immediate mini-kingdom, either. The majority will be instead LOOKING for someone to get something organized and start helping them.
People are, as a whole, fairly stupid. I've long held this opinion.
Even I have to admit that people, given even a modicum of direction, are also surprisingly resilient and although there WOULD be inevitable outbreaks of violence, some of it absolutely devastating on a social level, that won't stop the desire of MOST people to try and organize safety most immediately.
Food WILL get scarce in many areas, and therein lies the greatest danger. Folks get mighty edgy when the belly runs on fumes. Therein lies the greatest possibility of violence.
The fact that transportation and communications have been cut off will frighten.
Hospitals will be in real trouble, BUT will also get a surprising amount of community help for as long as supplies hold out and even after, for so long as medical personnel are willing to "make do" and help direct people.
People can be utter apes, pigs, absolute FILTH -- I've no doubt you and yours would be eagerly raiding those around you in fairly short order. This is the kind of thing it's clear you dwell on, dream of at night.
But it's NOT how most people are.
NO, not every town has a smith; please, try not to be more obtuse than your nature absolutely demands. However, there are both hobbyists, books and in the face of that kind of disaster Necessity -- you know, the Mother of Invention? -- driving folks. Smithing SKILLFULLY is most certainly a learned thing, but hammering and heating and getting something done in order to make do is, contrary to the rules of your kingdom, NOT rocket surgery and brain science.
I grew up on a farm and I live in a relatively rural community. I will NOT be able to feed all the hordes, but I won't be sitting idly by while people die, either.
I'll NEVER argue with you that not everyone can be saved; that would be just stupid. Then again, so is the immediate presupposition that society will go feral practically overnight.
Perhaps my favorite part of your rant is the suggestion that my proposals of "hearing" things from other places is outrageous:
"How are they going to hear about it? Smoke signals?"
Tell me, Grand Poo-Bah of Woods-Running and Throat-Slitting -- how did folks "hear about" things in yon olden days? POST Stone Age but before the telegraph? News took a while to travel and wasn't so reliable, but travel it most indeed DID.
I, too, spent my time in service -- nearly 22 years. I've seen a lot of primitive places. Having grown up on a farm I was amazed at farming in the Middle East, where groups of six or seven men, women and children would use hoes and rakes to tear apart acre upon acre, passing a field BEING torn apart and marveling at the sheer, brute force required; passing that same field on a later mission and marveling at the WEALTH of food growing thereon. I've questioned these people, learned that with a modicum of know-how and grit and determination they accomplished these things.
In that post-EMP world... do you reckon pretty much NO ONE has ANY idea how to put anything back together?
Don't you suppose electricians might be hard at work contributing to any form of local repair as barter for resources?
Don't you suppose mechanics would be working on trucks and tractors to try and get folks OFF of literal horsepower as quickly as possible?
There WOULD be massive death; there WOULD be tons of chaos and fear. I've never said otherwise.
But blasted back to the Stone Age for centuries?
I'm sorry, daydream about it all you want -- I'll stick with my version of a hybridized Old West once things begin to settle, and I'll stick with my foolish notion that survivors WOULD do their best to pull together and rebuild.
Do you know how to mine iron ore and smelt it? No? Sorry, no Iron Age for you!
Hmmm...
I reckon everyone is just a damned idiot in your eyes, unable to obtain anything and refashion it to another purpose.
Here, I'll stick with your style, and it's the last I'll bother since it's clear you're bright but also delusional:
Please cite one historical example of a long term social collapse. A little tiny one will suffice.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gungnir
I'll take that bet, the European Dark Ages, certainly from the 5th Century to the 10th Century. There's also the Greek Dark Ages, from 1100-750 BCE.
I thought about both of those periods before I posted my question. In terms of bad times neither came came close to Mircea's description of what is to come.
The end of the Western Roman Empire signalled an extraordinary decline in western Europe. Ther was no moe Rome to patrol roads, spread culture. maintain heated bath houses, and do all the other things, great and small, that had contributed to a pleasant, prosperous, and secure life. Life expectancy in 400 CE was the highest it had ever been or would be until the end of the Nineteenth Century.
But it never became the Hobbesian state of nature that Mircea posited. There were prosperous times and places as well as impoverished. There were wars in the vicinity of population centers but that had been the case under Rome as well. Several rival emperors had frequently fought for the prize with little thought for those who were trampled.
Roads were unsafe during the Dark Ages. In fact, they would never be as safe as they had been under Rome until modern times. Banking houses began to form and issue bills if exchange, instruments which allow an individual to deposit gold or other valuable commodity in one place and arrange payment somewhere else. It was a safe way to transport gold. the reason for this instrument was the fact that there was trade both within Europe and outside. Pepper and other spices were still availble to mask the taste of rotten meat. There were still cities and specialization.
But Constantinople was flourishing. Justianian would conquer Rome for a time in the Sixth Century. The great works of the ancients were safe. Although it may seem strange to say it the European Dark Ages was a relatiel local phenomenon.
The Greek Dark Ages saw the loss of writing, of pottery making, and it seems any knowledge of what went before. In The Iliad chariots are used to shuttle warriors to a contest; their use as a fighting vehicle seems forgotten. Life was generally pastoral although marked by events such as the Trojan War. Specialization became moribund in many areas. Odysseus was proud of his skill as a ploughman. But their was trade as evidenced by the war. Weapons were bronze so neither the skill nor the ability to obtain tin had been lost.
Those times just don't equal what Mircea posits. His concept of social collapse will be an event that has never happened before. It will be a time of evil when messenger boys are kidnapped and (eaten?).
Last edited by Happy in Wyoming; 05-27-2012 at 11:35 PM..
ohhh young grasshopper!!! Have you really tried farming 2.5 acres by hand????...
Well, I'm only 20, so I have plenty of energy. I've tilled and planted 2 acres by hand before, what's another half?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Urban Sasquatch
...snip...
The Army isn't going to simply abandon post en masse; just as in a wilderness survival situation building a simple fire holds a calming psychological effect, so the presence of authority and some plan of action will hold the majority of folks IN PLACE for those kinds of organizations.
Okay, the entire force of the military is NOT comparable to a nation of raving, lunatic hordes; but not everyone is going to be out LOOKING to create an immediate mini-kingdom, either. The majority will be instead LOOKING for someone to get something organized and start helping them.
...snip...
Great post, Urban Sasquatch!
In regards to the military: There's all sorts of regulations for military-grade hardware, making it resistant to EMP attacks. Many major military installations have redundancies built into their systems, and enough backups to last a few attacks. In the event of a massive EMP attack, it's likely military bases (all branches) would still have power.
If the US were directly attacked by an EMP, I believe martial law would be enacted. The military would be the ones with the power and supplies, so a majority of the population would do what they say. Rationing would ensue. There would be a few deaths -- suicides, starvation, murders -- but I doubt it would be as bad as some people here believe.
Much older vehicles, with very few and very simple electronics, would most likely still be able to function after an EMP. Old farm equipment would most likely still run. Communities could come together, and make sure everyone was provided for. A good example: We have a car dealership in southern Mississippi. When Katrina came through, everything got knocked out, trees fell on power lines, houses got knocked down... My dad, brother and I drove down from Kentucky to help out the rest of the family. We brought 7 portable generators with us, and about 50 gallons of fuel. At the dealership, we had 20,000 gallons of fuel, an industrial sized ice machine, and well-provided water. One generator was enough to run the well, fuel pump, and ice machine. We were able to ration fuel for the entire town, and provide water and ice for the local hospital.
Granted, in an EMP event, electrics wouldn't work -- so we probably couldn't produce ice -- but rigging a hand pump to the well and to the gas tanks wouldn't be hard. With just water and fuel, we could support the whole town. We own several old trucks (civilian and retired military vehicles), and a few old tractors. Most of these have little to no electronic systems they are dependent on -- so they would still run in an EMP situation.
I'm sure we're not the only people in the US in such a situation. With several small towns becoming self-sufficient, and the military doing what they can to support the more populated areas, I would think there would be some form of structure.
Question about EMP - would electronic devices be 'fried' or would they simply stop working because electric plants would stop working? any websites you recommend that explain this?
I thought about both of those periods before I posted my question. In terms of bad times neither came came close to Mircea's description of what is to come.
The end of the Western Roman Empire signalled an extraordinary decline in western Europe. Ther was no moe Rome to patrol roads, spread culture. maintain heated bath houses, and do all the other things, great and small, that had contributed to a pleasant, prosperous, and secure life. Life expectancy in 400 CE was the highest it had ever been or would be until the end of the Nineteenth Century.
But it never became the Hobbesian state of nature that Mircea posited. There were prosperous times and places as well as impoverished. There were wars in the vicinity of population centers but that had been the case under Rome as well. Several rival emperors had frequently fought for the prize with little thought for those who were trampled.
Roads were unsafe during the Dark Ages. In fact, they would never be as safe as they had been under Rome until modern times. Banking houses began to form and issue bills if exchange, instruments which allow an individual to deposit gold or other valuable commodity in one place and arrange payment somewhere else. It was a safe way to transport gold. the reason for this instrument was the fact that there was trade both within Europe and outside. Pepper and other spices were still availble to mask the taste of rotten meat. There were still cities and specialization.
But Constantinople was flourishing. Justianian would conquer Rome for a time in the Sixth Century. The great works of the ancients were safe. Although it may seem strange to say it the European Dark Ages was a relatiel local phenomenon.
The Greek Dark Ages saw the loss of writing, of pottery making, and it seems any knowledge of what went before. In The Iliad chariots are used to shuttle warriors to a contest; their use as a fighting vehicle seems forgotten. Life was generally pastoral although marked by events such as the Trojan War. Specialization became moribund in many areas. Odysseus was proud of his skill as a ploughman. But their was trade as evidenced by the war. Weapons were bronze so neither the skill nor the ability to obtain tin had been lost.
Those times just don't equal what Mircea posits. His concept of social collapse will be an event that has never happened before. It will be a time of evil when messenger boys are kidnapped and (eaten?).
Well, it's hard to say what the immediate effects were, I'm agree that your historically accurate on the effects, but we're looking through the lens of history and it misses many things. The period we're likely looking for to confirm or deny Mircea's theories would likely only be a couple of years after the beginning of the events that led to the Dark Ages (either European or Greek) and in both the written histories are vague or missing entirely. Obviously something affected both civilizations so profoundly that they lost a lot of their knowledge and technologies to be set back for hundreds of years. In the European Dark Ages by the time you're discussing the Kingdoms of Wessex, Northumbria, Mercia et al. in England, then you've progressed a great deal from the initial events.
Certainly in Britain (since I happen to know quite a bit about it), there were invasions by Saxons, who killed, enslaved or displaced local populations, while this doesn't include cannibalism, it does strongly mirror Mircea's scenario's. We know that 1.5 to 3 Million people were killed in the Plague of Justinian in England, we also know that in 1100 there was a population of England of 3.25 Million so in the plague of Justinian somewhere between half and nearly all of the population numbers of England around 600 years later were killed in a smallpox plague.
Given the above it does lead a degree of credance to Mircea's viewpoint, it should also be noted that the Saxon invasions were not a sustained assault by a country vs. a country, but opportunistic attacks and settlement (some of them displaced tribes themselves) by Saxon Lords often with holdings in the coastal European mainland, or Southern England.
All that said, it doesn't mean that the same kind of thing could happen here, or the converse. However as a worst case scenario it's certainly something to consider in your planning (or at least not frivolously discard as not possible). However as I mentioned at the beginning of this discussion, we're looking through the lens of history, to claim any degree of logical connection to a future event mirroring the past (as read between the lines) is complete speculation, although we do know that history does have a way of repeating itself.
In regards to the military: There's all sorts of regulations for military-grade hardware, making it resistant to EMP attacks. Many major military installations have redundancies built into their systems, and enough backups to last a few attacks. In the event of a massive EMP attack, it's likely military bases (all branches) would still have power.
If the US were directly attacked by an EMP, I believe martial law would be enacted. The military would be the ones with the power and supplies, so a majority of the population would do what they say. Rationing would ensue. There would be a few deaths -- suicides, starvation, murders -- but I doubt it would be as bad as some people here believe.
The problem wouldn't be the equipment, the problem would be the people.
How do you enact Martial Law when you can't communicate except face to face, you going to run the CiC around to every state to tell the Governor you're enacting Martial Law, so he can run around the state and inform every mayor that Martial Law is enacted? Just so that when the troops arrive the locals don't think it's some big plot to drag them off to a FEMA relocation camp for relocation to a point that's 6' below ground level?
Here's a question, suppose you're on temporary active duty in Fort Bragg, and your family is in Oregon when there's a major EMP event. You know all transportation systems and communication systems that aren't hardened are down. You also know that there are probably at most 1M active servicemen who could provide any kind of support to the 300M US citizens, but who must also provide security for anything the public shouldn't have access to, and supplies. You're also hearing some scattered reports of rioting and looting in some major population centers, that leads the army/national guard to fire on the looters and the casualties are in the hundreds if not thousands.
Are you going to really state you'd stand guard as ordered on some pissant congressman from some no name town in some no name state, to keep them safe, or run off (in a stolen truck with supplies) and try to get to your loved ones? Given that the chance that the US military could recapture you is virtually nil.
BTW I'm not basing this on fantasy, most modern militaries have contingency planning for this kind of event, and rates of attrition, I've never seen any plan for this kind of thing where the military is functional after at most 6 weeks (and speaking as former military I personally think they're being optimistic).
@Gungnir: Well, for me personally, I know all my family would go to the farm, where they can be pretty self-sufficient. About 50 acres of the property is cleared and leveled (as a private grass runway), which could be used for crops if needed.
If an EMP situation were to take place, and the US didn't have to ship troops overseas, I'd probably be stationed in Phoenix, alongside the Arizona National Guard, to control the situation here. I know my family would be just fine, so I'd be more concerned about my own safety.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NYChistorygal
Question about EMP - would electronic devices be 'fried' or would they simply stop working because electric plants would stop working? any websites you recommend that explain this?
I've been a bit confused on the "effect" of EMPs on devices as well. From what I understand, it's a pulse that effects the magnetic fields around objects. Think about an electromagnet. They're very easy to make: coil some wire, and charge a current through it. Long wires and metals conduct currents very easily. When an EMP goes off, electronics with lengths of wire will essentially "pick up" electric current. The current from an EMP, though, would basically fry the fragile parts of electronics (most electronics being very fragile). Basically, the wires, capacitors, and resistors in your computer or other electronic devices will over-volt, and fry.
Longer wires are more easily effected than shorter wires, so the whole power grid is basically screwed. Transformers along the power grid are in place to "step down" the current, and protect the system from outages caused by things like lightening strikes. Like a surge protector in your wall, they're made to break, and take the blow. However, if an EMP were to go off, you're looking at ALL the transformers frying. We simply don't have the money and resources to replace every transformer, especially when there's no power to make new ones, or move them on-site.
In an EMP event, military bases will still have power, as their systems are purpose-built to be resistant to EMP attacks. The military and the private sector would (hopefully) work together to fix power plants, and restore power to major areas. Hydroelectric plants would come back online fairly quickly, however the infrastructure delivering the power would have to be replaced, one mile at a time. It would be a slow and expensive process, but eventually the system would be rebuilt. People living out in rural areas would most likely see power restored last.
Of course, with power and communications knocked out, organizing such a repair effort would be extraordinarily difficult, especially with the looting and attacks that would be going on at the same time.
You'll hear people mention "Faraday Cages", when talking about shielding objects from an EMP. Basically, a Faraday cage is a metal cage surrounding an object. Back in High School, our teacher was showing us how a Faraday cage works. She had a large "bag" made out of chicken wire. I got inside the bag, and she zapped it with a metal prod. You could actually see the electricity jumping across the exterior of the cage, and dissipating as it went.
The voltage was high enough that, if the prod made direct contact to someone, it could do some damage -- but in the bag, I didn't feel a thing. So, if you wanted a few working objects after an EMP attack, you would have to put them in such a bag, or a properly shielded box. Theoretically, if you put a few short-wave radios in a Faraday cage, you could establish point-to-point communications, while batteries lasted. I imagine I'm not the only one who's thought of this, so there'd probably be a small communications network established after an EMP event.
Someone please feel free to correct me if anything here is incorrect. It's a bit of a generalization, but that's how I see it.
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ohhh young grasshopper!!! Have you really tried farming 2.5 acres by hand????I hobby farm 15 little acres with a 60 yr old tractor and a couple of horses(for fun) and it is still backbreaking labor!!!!!In my humble opinion there is a faction the screams for a return to the land ala little house on the prairie...The don't have a friggin clue.......
