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I have to be honest, I am not too optimistic about the future, say 20 to 40 years from now.
I think that technology has advanced to the point where it will be affecting our lives in profoundly negative ways.
Self driving technology may eliminate most transportation jobs. We don't need too many bank tellers anymore because most of it can be done by computer. Teachers? Well, many of those jobs might be replaced by technology, too. And it goes on and on.
So, if there are fewer and fewer jobs and more and more people (because I just don't see people not reproducing), the economy will basically collapse. Fewer people will buy cars, houses, TVs, other consumer goods. It will be a ripple effect. Some people will be lucky. But most will be affected.
Humans have been able to conquer disease and we've built a very complex and, for the most part, prosperous society. Are we going to be able to draw the line and say that technology has gone too far?
I have to be honest, I am not too optimistic about the future, say 20 to 40 years from now.
I think that technology has advanced to the point where it will be affecting our lives in profoundly negative ways.
Self driving technology may eliminate most transportation jobs. We don't need too many bank tellers anymore because most of it can be done by computer. Teachers? Well, many of those jobs might be replaced by technology, too. And it goes on and on.
So, if there are fewer and fewer jobs and more and more people (because I just don't see people not reproducing), the economy will basically collapse. Fewer people will buy cars, houses, TVs, other consumer goods. It will be a ripple effect. Some people will be lucky. But most will be affected.
Humans have been able to conquer disease and we've built a very complex and, for the most part, prosperous society. Are we going to be able to draw the line and say that technology has gone too far?
A scenario of what could happen if technology really got advanced out of control:
Really neat story, thanks for sharing. Currently on Chapter 4, but it seems like everything bad that is happening in this story is happening now in real life, just exchange robots with illegal immigrants and factor in all the jobs that have been sent overseas already.
There is nothing to do....since it will never happen.
Seriously, you all ought to plan for Day One of the Return of Elvis...that is actually more plausible. I'd be happy to answer any questions on Economics for anyone who doesn't understand Economics, which is quite a lot of people here actually.
There is nothing to do....since it will never happen.
Seriously, you all ought to plan for Day One of the Return of Elvis...that is actually more plausible. I'd be happy to answer any questions on Economics for anyone who doesn't understand Economics, which is quite a lot of people here actually.
There is nothing to do....since it will never happen.
Seriously, you all ought to plan for Day One of the Return of Elvis...that is actually more plausible. I'd be happy to answer any questions on Economics for anyone who doesn't understand Economics, which is quite a lot of people here actually.
Injecting reality...
Mircea
THAT'S RIGHT!!!!
It will NEVER HAPPEN!
Just like the Roman empire will last FOREVER.
The Mians, the Incans, the Greeks, the Persians, the Saxons, the Normans.....
Just like the Roman empire will last FOREVER.
The Mians, the Incans, the Greeks, the Persians, the Saxons, the Normans.....
Nobody (I think) is arguing history - that empires have peaks, upward and downwards spirals. The question everyone should ask themselves is if it is possible in their lifetime, if that is what they are prepping for or is it simply a lifestyle, is it natural disaster..... what are the specific threats and scenarios you envision.
If you are looking at a natural disaster, the common kind, having things available for a few weeks is enough, a generator would come in handy etc., nothing crazy. If on the other hand, you are anticipating a total societal breakdown due to wide-spread economic problems, well, your scenarios just got multiplied by a factor of ten at least.
What usually works is cataloging the possibilities (natural disaster, blackout, economic breakdown etc. etc.) and trying to think about what is possible and quantifying this possibility. You, of course, should take history into account. Yes, the Roman empire fell down, so did the British. Soviet Union fell apart too. But, in the case of Britain or Soviet Union, for example, the impact on the ordinary British citizen was not so great and the impact on the Soviet citizen, well, you could argue the ordinary Soviet benefited from the fall.
Anyways, I would say that preparedness flows naturally from self-sufficiency. I enjoy gardening and growing my own food. I don't do it because I anticipate a huge need for survival but I am educated about the junk we are served as food in this country. I do not want to eat herbicides, pesticides, chemicals, eggs produced by hens that were fed feathers and other hens' dead bodies mixed with antibiotics. I don't care if there are a few scientists working for Tyson who claim that it is "not unhealthy" for you to eat such an egg. So, I keep my own layers, I grow my own veggies etc. I love doing it. I love tinkering with solar, I like making things like chicken coops or hay sheds. As a positive side-effect of my hobbies, I get to be prepared more than most of my neighbors. Did I spend my life's savings buying bug-out properties? Nope. Is my property easy to defend? Don't know but I count on my neighbors to a) not attack me if there is a problem and b) help me if I am under attack in case SHTF. Why do I expect this? Because I hope I have made some good friends and at least earned their respect. If not, no amount of hills, tunnels etc. would protect me from a neighbor with a wish to take what I have.
Some things I do not enjoy doing but I did anyways. When we fenced our 5 acres, given the rock we sit on with the thin soil, I got a few quotes from a few folks. I am sorry but I am not going to pay someone $15K (and I have some quotes as high as $30K) to fence my 5 acres, that is outrageous (and is a different topic for a different discussion). So, I did it myself with my wife and rented tools. Did I like pounding t-posts into bedrock in mid-July at 90+ degrees? Nope. But at a cost of a few thousand (basically just materials), I saved myself at least $12K right there. My wife and I also cleared a boatload of dead oak and cedar from the property, mostly using handsaws. At the end I gave in and used a chainsaw but only for maybe 10% of the work. Did I enjoy it? Nope but the alternative was to hire one of those landscaping business from town and even though they employ cheap illegal immigrant labor, the local owners love their duallies and their big houses and toys so they charge like Dick Cheney is working on my project. Hence, I did it myself, in the middle of the summer, with my own two hands and saved some cash. Yes, I could have spent that time "making money" but I hate being ripped off so I did it myself.
Which leads me to another portion of the whole story: being self-sufficient -> being prepared -> ultimately saving money. How? The initial investment into self-sufficiency is very high. Most of the "green" books, "how to go back to the land" books etc. do not mention this, they gloss over it because if they did not, they would point out the obvious truth: it takes money to get land, it takes money to put in a well and a septic, it takes money to build a house, it takes money to buy that trailer to live in while you build a house, it takes money to put in solar panels. It takes skills, it takes time, it takes knowledge. If you are like most Americans are, meaning, you have to work for a living, doing all the above WHILE you work a full time job and possibly commute two hours a day is no small feat. In fact, it may take you years, at such pace (working on your projects evenings and weekends, at that's assuming no time off for fun or vacations).
The above last few sentences is why I get so ticked off by people claiming "rural folks" are smarter and better prepared. No they are not. They have an advantage by virtue of location but many of them do not take advantage of that advantage. They are as lazy as anyone else because let's face it, unless "daddy" left you with piles of fenced land, built up buildings and outbuildings etc. etc. - it is upon you to do all that, all the while making a living. I think the latest statistics say only 17% of US population live rural (and the criteria for rural is probably not what you or I consider to be REALLY rural) - which leaves 83% of the population urban. Making the transition from urban to rural takes financial education, discipline, a strong desire for self-sufficiency and above all, a strong desire for PUNISHMENT. That's right, you have to want to abandon all the conveniences of having a social life, enjoying all the amenities, buying everything that takes a lot of work and care and skill to make yourself etc. - in order to satisfy some higher goal that is far ahead in time. Not many people have the stamina to do that, especially since modern life makes all the "good stuff" easily accessible. Modern life also conceals a lot of bad side effects of all the pay-for conveniences but if you grow up living "modern", urban or rural, you are less likely to go back to abandoning all that for an ideal. Look at even the big ranches around the country. Nowadays many a cattle ranch does not use a horse, they are as likely to use an ATV to do cow work. Some even use helicopters to track their cows. Many a rural cowboy knows not how to really make a good horse but they know how to take apart the 4 cylinder engine on their mule. I don't look down on these folks just like I don't look down on the urban dweller who is clueless about where that tomato came from (and what' in it). Many of these folks have only basic survival in mind, and I don't mean SHTF kind of survival, I mean, day-to-day put the food on the table survival. This country used to be a place where you could raise a child on one salary and have the wife stay at home without the need to work. Not anymore, mothers work alongside of fathers, schools suck unless you have money to live in a good district etc. - parents are busy working and commuting, children are unattended, the family nucleus is falling apart, many a child will be subject to abuse at home or at school due to the collective frustration everyone is feeling with the way of life etc. There is a reason why you see more and more frustrated people hating each other over stupid things such as politics. That, to me is the biggest threat of all. Without the question of health care solved, without easy access to education, without controls on what is in the food, with the fact that life is getting more expensive, that everyone is taxing you, dipping their hands in your pockets, with the fact that people are more and more forced to turn a blind eye to their fellow humans just to make a buck, it is all channeling into this "general frustration funnel". If that cannot be remedied, if we keep digging a deeper hole for ourselves, if that funnel starts spilling - that to me would be a thing to watch for, that will be the real reason for bigger, systemic problems. When I was young, many years ago, I remember (vaguely) a history lesson from primary school about the first world war. It went on to explain that there was a reason for the war and there was a cause for the war. The immediate cause was the assassination of the Archduke Ferdinand. The reasons were much deeper and political and geo strategic and historical. You can apply that to today by thinking about what the thing will be that broke the camel's back and what the deep, underlying, structural reasons would be for that.
Simpy saying "buy guns, buy ammo, get a bug-out location, stockpile food, get gold" is not enough, in my opinion. It may help you hold out a week or two longer - it will not be a long term fix for you though.
Hope that helped! My liberal handlers were very generous with words today, MTSilverTip! They wanted you to know that they are people too! Now about that free healthcare....
There is nothing to do....since it will never happen.
Seriously, you all ought to plan for Day One of the Return of Elvis...that is actually more plausible. I'd be happy to answer any questions on Economics for anyone who doesn't understand Economics, which is quite a lot of people here actually.
Injecting reality... ... and pontificating...
Mircea
No, of course not!!! Nothing bad ever happens economically or otherwise. All is well and always will be. There has never been an economic collapse. Ever. And even if there has… we’re SO MUCH smarter now! Near a state of perfection in our knowledge of… well… everything!
By all means, oh great one, answer some more of our childlike questions (we have so very MANY for you), so that our dullard minds may be filled with your wisdom and light and your profoundly awe-inspiring ability to know our future in advance... so that the vacuous darkness of ignorance within which we are mired might be washed away and banished forever by the tsunami of your devine acumen.
Either you believe yourself to be some sort of godlike gift to mankind (are you a Kardashian?), or you have some really special pills. If it's the former, go into politics. If it's the latter, please share your pills--I'd do just about anything to travel through time, except I would go backwards, not forwards. I have no interest whatsoever in where our species is heading.
This simple SAT-style question will explain it.....
Greece is to the European Union as California is to the united States.
So, now you'll scream, "Inflation!"
Use the forum's Search function so you can learn all of the different types of Inflation, their unique causes and the solutions to stem or reduce them.
Your National Debt will cause/is causing a lot of problems, but "Economic Collapse" (snicker) isn't one of them.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Themanwithnoname
THAT'S RIGHT!!!!
It will NEVER HAPPEN!
It's Economics, not the "Deep Impact."
Quote:
Originally Posted by Themanwithnoname
Just like the Roman empire will last FOREVER.
The Mians, the Incans, the Greeks, the Persians, the Saxons, the Normans.....
I never said the united States will last forever.
What I have said is that when an empire --like the united States -- stops expanding....which is what the US has done and why the US continually engages in wars to expand, then it begins to stagnate and decline.
However, 'decline' and 'collapse' are not the same thing. Use the Google Search function to learn the definition of 'decline' and 'collapse' and how to use them correctly.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordyLordy
Nobody (I think) is arguing history - that empires have peaks, upward and downwards spirals.
People argue history and speak of empires when they do not understand Economics, and then invariably those people start frothing at the mouth screaming "Federal Reserve!" until they fall over backwards in their own feces.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisC
No, of course not!!! Nothing bad ever happens economically or otherwise. All is well and always will be. There has never been an economic collapse. Ever. And even if there has… we’re SO MUCH smarter now! Near a state of perfection in our knowledge of… well… everything!
By all means, oh great one, answer some more of our childlike questions (we have so very MANY for you), so that our dullard minds may be filled with your wisdom and light and your profoundly awe-inspiring ability to know our future in advance... so that the vacuous darkness of ignorance within which we are mired might be washed away and banished forever by the tsunami of your devine acumen.
The fact that no one on this forum has ever been able to explicitly defined the incredibly vague "economic collapse" -- in spite of my asking repeatedly --- is telling, indeed.
Generally speaking, it is impossible to define something that does not exist.
The fact that so many here in Prepper-Land are so stupid as to think the Federal Reserve is responsible for Cost Inflation says it all ---- and it says lots of people have an Economic IQ of Zero.
I happen to have a degree in Economics, but much of Economics (aside from the math) is just plain ordinary common sense, and you have to wonder how successful people who are totally devoid of common sense would survive in a real scenario...they wouldn't.
When I see you all making hyper-accurate predictions of your economy for the last 6 years like I have, then I'll stop pontificating.
And, no....I haven't predicted "economic collapse" because that isn't going to happen. Even when Real Inflation is running 35%-45% about 12 years from now, your economy still won't collapse.
If you all want to waste time and money prepping for something that will never happen, go ahead....obviously it satisfies some unfulfilled need in your lives.
And, no....I haven't predicted "economic collapse" because that isn't going to happen. Even when Real Inflation is running 35%-45% about 12 years from now, your economy still won't collapse.
If you all want to waste time and money prepping for something that will never happen, go ahead....[I
obviously it satisfies some unfulfilled need in your lives.[/i]
Pointing out...
Mircea
If in your infailable opinion, hyper-inflation of "35-45%" is coming, seeing as I don't have huge reserves of cash on hand, that would mean if I want to eat regularly, have a home, take care of my family that prepping to provide my basic necessities would be a good idea.
That wasn't a good situation for the citizens either.
Thoughtfully considering
MtSilvertip
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