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You are making the assumption computers need the same criteria as humans, a sentient computer really doesnt care if there is a hole in a dam,its a different reality for a computer, as for shutting down their power supply? it would be quite a power system that could be shut down without computers running the programs to bring that about.it would also shut our techno based society to an end.
You seem to think these sentient computers are going to take on humanoid shape and have human needs, you are using one of its minions to create and post this message,computers rule your life,if the computer collective suddenly became aware and resented humans using its being as akin to a slave you'd be hard pressed to take on todays technology if it became an intelligent enemy.
They still need power to operate. Bottom line. No dam, no power. No coal, no power. A grid system doesn't have to be shut down properly as the only way it's shut down, you cut the wire, you blow up a transformer, it may take a computer to operate the system, it only takes one person to shut it down. The Nazis controlled pretty much all of Europe for a while, but partisans still assasinated German leaders, still put sand in the gears of the war machine by cutting power lines, cutting oil lines, disrupting communications, a determined man with a plan and maybe some knowledge of how electricity works could still cause huge problems in a technology driven overlord computer system.
Computers are pretty fragile. One electromagnetic burst from an atomic bomb or even a storm from the sun would fry the whole thing. Gears and electronics are fragile. If you don't believe that, drop a cola in your CPU sometime and see what happens. Drop a little dust inside the case, put some water on it, you have a pile of expensive scrap.
Watch the movie "Little Soldiers" sometime. It could put your fears to rest.
Yes, it would also shut down the techo society to shut down computers, but if the computers are threatening that society, then it is a greater hazzard to have them than not so you shut them down. The internet is powerful, but only if the communications systems are working. Take out the satalite uplink, no more communication. Computers are not superhuman, they are simply inanamate objects that people like to atribute human characteristics to.
Robots and computers don't have human needs, but they still need new parts, maintenance, raw materials the parts can be manufactured from, transportation, programming, power to make the machine work, and above all, someone to turn on the switch.
I hear stories of Indians being scared of the "singing wires" in the old west, of people fearing the horseless carriage, being afraid of the train because humans couldn't stand the strain of traveling over 25 miles per hour. Technology is scary, it upsets the status quo.
But it also is a useful tool so we use it.
It's still just a tool. A computer is no different than an electric drill, or an electric saw. It's just a tool and no matter how "smart" a computer is, just like humans, it's limited by being what it is. All a computer can do is add, subtract, multipy and divide ones and zeros. It works in binary code and it can only do what a programmer tells it to.
Trying for self aware computers is like trying to get to the moon, an objective just to see if it can be done. There could be repercussions yes, but the reality would be a far cry from a thriller movie.
Enjoy your playstation and don't worry about it coming to life and strangle you.
This thread was never meant to devolve into the discussion of world domination by machines. As always the "crazy preppers" push it to the doomsday unrealistic scenarios. What it was meant to discuss was the possibility of gradual loss of income for people who traditionally had very safe jobs because these jobs relied on something more than muscle and brawn and the ability to swing a hammer or stuff a bag with something. What happens to these people and what are the implications to society? Sigh...
This thread was never meant to devolve into the discussion of world domination by machines. As always the "crazy preppers" push it to the doomsday unrealistic scenarios. What it was meant to discuss was the possibility of gradual loss of income for people who traditionally had very safe jobs because these jobs relied on something more than muscle and brawn and the ability to swing a hammer or stuff a bag with something. What happens to these people and what are the implications to society? Sigh...
This thread was never meant to devolve into the discussion of world domination by machines. As always the "crazy preppers" push it to the doomsday unrealistic scenarios. What it was meant to discuss was the possibility of gradual loss of income for people who traditionally had very safe jobs because these jobs relied on something more than muscle and brawn and the ability to swing a hammer or stuff a bag with something. What happens to these people and what are the implications to society? Sigh...
Your original post just gave a link to the concept of machines taking over jobs humans are now doing, what are these people going to do? obviously learn other jobs or become chronically unemployed,implication would be more tax dollars being spent on welfare programs,
Perhaps had you wanted the topic to go in just one direction more elaboration on your initial post would have been in order. as for the topic morphing into world domination by machines? your own post 14 got me thinking in that direction.
Quote:
one is whether humanity will be obsoleted by robots
This thread was never meant to devolve into the discussion of world domination by machines. As always the "crazy preppers" push it to the doomsday unrealistic scenarios. What it was meant to discuss was the possibility of gradual loss of income for people who traditionally had very safe jobs because these jobs relied on something more than muscle and brawn and the ability to swing a hammer or stuff a bag with something. What happens to these people and what are the implications to society? Sigh...
Are you unaware that many have been losing income due to advancing technology and what they are doing about it? Job loss to software is now and the implications to society are already apparent. This hit many upside the head beginning around 2010, not sure of the year exactly, but unemployment benefits were extended, many started collecting food stamps and welfare, many suddenly became disabled. Many are underemployed. Some were eligible for education grants to retrain but I never heard how many took advantage of it. As software continues to replace human skills, there will be more cries for increased safety nets. And as long as some believe there will be a safety net, they will while away hours playing on facebook instead of preparing for the day that software replaces them. Denial is a powerful human trait. The good news is new jobs are being created due to technology but it has not kept pace with the losses.
You are at least partially responsible for the thread not turning out as you imagined. You titled it, Does this scare anyone?, and then included only a link in your opening post. It looked like a trolling doomsday prepper tactic. It would seem that the word robot conjured up images of the Terminator for some posters. Maybe the author should have phrased it as software substitution. Maybe some didn't get beyond the article title. Maybe you should have put the thread in Economics.
This thread was never meant to devolve into the discussion of world domination by machines. As always the "crazy preppers" push it to the doomsday unrealistic scenarios. What it was meant to discuss was the possibility of gradual loss of income for people who traditionally had very safe jobs because these jobs relied on something more than muscle and brawn and the ability to swing a hammer or stuff a bag with something. What happens to these people and what are the implications to society? Sigh...
I question whether the US can remain united in this scenario. Here are a few challenges:
1) How do you achieve the political consensus to become socialist? Healthcare reform today was a flop, and even if something of meaning had been passed, the debate never touched the nuances of how the industry operates. We can't raise or pass new taxes and corporations flow to the lowest cost regions. Confidence in passing appropriate policies that support a 50% unemployment rate? Slim.
2) Even if we designed and built the perfect socialist policies, we're part of a global economy. What is the impact on trade when the entire first world makes the transition?
3) Can you even have a socialist society without managing population growth? Are we going to pass/enforce a one child policy?
4) Even if we reach that point, humans crave growth and engagement, from childhood learning through career. People without a role/purpose/career become depressed. We can see multiple examples from the inner cities, to oppression of Sunnis in Iraq, where a multigeneration lack of growth and purpose spawns evil. What will fill that burning void when all of the jobs are gone? Drugs. Blight. Organized crime. I wouldn't be surprised to see us turn substantially more religious and divided on such lines.
I think what's most interesting about this discussion is that even ignoring the drastic improvements to technology that we're assuming will destroy office jobs, there are massive secular changes already in play. Boomers hold the majority of wealth and executive jobs today, but logic says that will flow to the generation of kids who grew up with the internet over the next 20-30 years. My thoughts on impacts:
1) More $ steadily flows to e-commerce from brick and mortar due to the generational shift.
2) Self driving cars (imminent) and delivery drones will make same day delivery standard, eliminating the need for any trip to a retail or grocery store and slashing the need for delivery drivers.
3) Town center mom & pop stores disappear (in process), malls and mall jobs disappear.
4) Telecommute will devastate demand for office space as internet kids are wired and comfortable communicating and working over computers instead of face to face.
So just from that batch you lose the majority of retail workers/managers and the office infrastructure behind them (15 million). You lose most grocery. You lose tons of delivery worker jobs. Commercial real estate collapses smacking agents/brokers, REITs, etc. Then you get deeper derivative impacts. Mass transit infrastructure and city highways are built for 250ish days of rush hour a year - what do we need that for if gridlock disappears? Gas consumption will dive, hitting E&P and refiners. I'd imagine that if most workers could telecommute, they'd stay away from expensive residential city real estate. Wealth migration to low COLA means state/local governments cut employees. Cab drivers become redundant, business travel (flights, hotels) disappear. Call it 10-12% of our work force at risk for total obsolescence before we get to AI destroying office workers.
I think what's most interesting about this discussion is that even ignoring the drastic improvements to technology that we're assuming will destroy office jobs, there are massive secular changes already in play. Boomers hold the majority of wealth and executive jobs today, but logic says that will flow to the generation of kids who grew up with the internet over the next 20-30 years. My thoughts on impacts:
1) More $ steadily flows to e-commerce from brick and mortar due to the generational shift.
2) Self driving cars (imminent) and delivery drones will make same day delivery standard, eliminating the need for any trip to a retail or grocery store and slashing the need for delivery drivers.
3) Town center mom & pop stores disappear (in process), malls and mall jobs disappear.
4) Telecommute will devastate demand for office space as internet kids are wired and comfortable communicating and working over computers instead of face to face.
So just from that batch you lose the majority of retail workers/managers and the office infrastructure behind them (15 million). You lose most grocery. You lose tons of delivery worker jobs. Commercial real estate collapses smacking agents/brokers, REITs, etc. Then you get deeper derivative impacts. Mass transit infrastructure and city highways are built for 250ish days of rush hour a year - what do we need that for if gridlock disappears? Gas consumption will dive, hitting E&P and refiners. I'd imagine that if most workers could telecommute, they'd stay away from expensive residential city real estate. Wealth migration to low COLA means state/local governments cut employees. Cab drivers become redundant, business travel (flights, hotels) disappear. Call it 10-12% of our work force at risk for total obsolescence before we get to AI destroying office workers.
This thread was never meant to devolve into the discussion of world domination by machines. As always the "crazy preppers" push it to the doomsday unrealistic scenarios. What it was meant to discuss was the possibility of gradual loss of income for people who traditionally had very safe jobs because these jobs relied on something more than muscle and brawn and the ability to swing a hammer or stuff a bag with something. What happens to these people and what are the implications to society? Sigh...
I'll tell you what happens, because it already has happened to an extent. Not every person is a rocket scientist or has the potential to become a rocket scientist. I'm not saying that to belittle anyone. There is nothing wrong with not being Einstein. In past times, those sorts of people simply developed the talents they did have. Perhaps they were "good with their hands." Perhaps they were artistic. Perhaps they were imaginative or had a "mechanical mind." Perhaps they were good at patching things up and making things work. Perhaps they simply had a strong back. Etc. Etc. Etc.
And now? Well, when was the last time you needed the services of a cooper? Or a miller? Or a farmhand? Or a tinsmith? Or a housewright? Didn't think so. So... now either your strength is your mind or you become a ward of the state (that's the direction we are going). We have the welfare culture (and Mickey Dees) to replace the artisan, craftsman, and artist. Progress.
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